Red Sox Predictions: Who will be the closer in 2019 if Craig Kimbrel leaves?

The Boston Red Sox now have Craig Kimbrel as the closer. Kimbrel will be a free agent after the 2018 season and the team may need a viable replacement. Who on the roster can step in?

Craig Kimbrel is entering his walk season with the Boston Red Sox and will be looking at Bentley’s and Gulf Stream’s during the season as he aims for a doable target – exceeding the five-year and $86 Million contract that Aroldis Chapman signed to set the new financial standard for closers. What does 2019 hold in store for Kimbrel?

The first leap of statistical faith is Kimbrel will have a 2018 comparable to his 2017 season, so the statistical information may not be a guarantee, but is most certainly attainable based on his previous history. Kimbrel’s career statistics have a slight edge over Chapman’s, but a potential downside is Chapman was 28 years-old when he signed his contract and Kimbrel will be 30 years-old upon joining the one percent club.

So, what happens? The Red Sox have placed themselves into a position where they do have several options for replacement of Kimbrel while saving significant dollars – money that can be applied elsewhere such as contracts to the young core of players reaching deep into arbitration or free agency.

Who takes over? That is where internal replacement takes precedent and Boston management has either deliberately or through quirky circumstances placed themselves in Red Barber’s Cat Bird seat.

Most Likely

Carson Smith returned from the pitching “Right of passage” known as Tommy John surgery to give a glimpse in September of what had been missed. Smith worked in eight games and picked up one save. In an earlier life in Seattle,  Smith was a two-way option as a closer and set-up getting 13 saves in 2015.  Smith is also under team control through 2021.

The 28-year-old righty with the quirky delivery relies primarily on a fastball, change, and curve. Smith can reach the mid-90s on his fastball and keeps the ball in the yard yielding only two home runs in 87.2 career innings and Smith has a very impressive 66.2% ground ball rate.

Will 2018 be a recovery year for right-hander Tyler Thornburg? He is the opposite of Smith with a far less impressive career 35.8 GB%, but Thornburg – or the Thornburg of 2016 – is a two-way option close or set-up.  In 2016, Thornburg posted 13 saves for the Brewers in 67 games. That breakout season saw Thornburg compile a 0.94 WHIP, 12.1 K/9, 2.25 ERA, 5.1 H/9, and 3.4 BB/9. Yes – he can pitch.

Thornburg relies primarily on a fastball (66.3%), curve (24.5%), and the rest is a change. As far as velocity expect mid-90’s on old number one and into the high 70’s on his change – that is certainly pulling the string. Thornburg is under team control through 2020.

Thornburg and Smith both have closing experience, and both have health issues with Thornburg having a null 2017 season.  This season will give a potential glimpse into the team’s closing future as they both vie for set-up duties – a noted gateway to being closer.  If Kimbrel has “issues” or an injury, then the issue of closer circa 2019 may be resolved earlier.

Next Tier

Triple digits on your fastball gets attention and Joe Kelly got a lot of attention in 2017. The right-handed Kelly average 99.2V on his heater last season, which was his primary go-to pitch. The downside with Kelly is a career 4.0 BB/9 with Boston.  Last season was Kelly’s first working exclusively out of the bullpen and 2018 may be one where Kelly is the sixth or seventh inning option. In 2017, Kelly had 13 holds and four blown saves, but his 50 GB% and 0.5 HR/9 in 2017 are positives. Kelly is also under team control through 2019.

Matt Barnes is a pitcher Red Sox fans seem to love and hate, often in the same game.  The 27-year-old right-hander is another one who brings some real gas to the mound with a fastball that ticks into the mid to high 90’s. Barnes mixes in a slider and curve to his pitching toolkit.

The downside is a 3.6 BB/9 in 2017, but the upside is a 7-3 record that produced 21 holds, one save, and a GB% slightly under 50.  The former number one draft selection is under team control through 2022.

Heath Hembree and Barnes are very similar statistically and in style.  Hembree – like Barnes – will hit the mid-90’s with his fastball and show the slider and curve as his other options. Hembree had 14 holds in 2017, three blown saves, 2.6 BB/9, and a 3.63 ERA.

Finding the tender spot for Hembree is rather easy and can be the classifier that gives Kelly and Barnes the edge at this level. Most notable is a 1.5 HR/9 and a dismal 10.5 H/9. Neither becomes much of a selling point in establishing your credentials as a potential closer. Hembree is under team control through 2022.

On this tier, all three represent a significant downgrade from Thornburg and Smith and a sinkhole when compared to Kimbrel. All three are high risk for closing based on the listed negatives.

Never Say Never

In the world of closers, Steven Wright is no Tim Wakefield and Wakefield is no Hoyt Wilhelm. Wright has never closed and is potentially far more valuable in the rotation or as a long reliever. The questions about Wright’s serviceability will be answered in 2018 – has he recovered from knee surgery?

In 2016, Wright was simply a spectacular pitcher before being injured.  An All-Star and a strong contender for the Cy Young Award who punched his time clock with a 13-6 record, 3.38 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, and four complete games in 24 starts. Wright is simply far more valuable as a starter.

Do you pay $32 Million to have a closer? The Red Sox may end up doing that with David Price if it is necessary to recoup some return on his $217 Million contract. Can Price close?  Just ask the 2008 Red Sox who saw Price smoke ‘em in the playoffs.  Last season Price was relegated to the bullpen vis the injury express.  What happened?

The Price of the playoffs was not the Price of other playoffs sans 2008 – he looked dominant.  In Price’s two games – a very small sample for sure – he allowed five hits, no runs, and stuck out six in his 6.2 innings. But the real story is Price is supposed to be your ace and the last I saw of the job description for an ace it was not being a closer.

Wright and Price are far more valuable in their roles as starters, but necessity and performance can make dramatic shifts in that. With Price, it would relegate his contract to Barry Zito status no matter how successful his bullpen performance is.