Red Sox should not trade for Manny Machado
The Boston Red Sox are rumored to be interested in a trade for Baltimore Orioles star Manny Machado but would this be a smart decision?
It wouldn’t be Hot Stove season without the Boston Red Sox being tied to trade rumors. The latest is a report that the team has shown continued interested in acquiring Manny Machado from the Baltimore Orioles.
This comes as no surprise given that every team in baseball should be interested in Machado. He’s a three-time All-Star and a two-time Gold Glove winner who has finished within the top-five in MVP voting twice. His owns an .805 OPS for his career, which is higher than any Red Sox hitter with 250+ plate appearances produced this season. He’s one of only two third baseman in history with three 30+ home run seasons on his resume through their age 24 season.
So, yes, Machado is a phenomenal player. That doesn’t mean it would be wise for the Red Sox to trade for him.
The concerns have nothing to do with the incident last season stemming from Machado’s questionable slide into second base or the bean-ball war it ignited. Players are capable of putting grudges aside to welcome a new teammate in the interest of winning so any hard feelings would quickly be swept under the rug.
I’m also not going to assume that Baltimore would refuse to trade their star to a division rival. While they may not find it ideal, Dave Dombrowski has a relationship with Orioles GM Dan Duquette dating back to their days together in the Montreal Expose front office.
The reason to be skeptical of a potential deal comes down to cost. What would it take to pry Machado out of Baltimore? The answer is “too much.”
Next winter Machado will hit the free agent market at the age of 26. Given his talent and how young he’ll be compared to your typical star free agent, we can expect he’ll be seeking a lucrative long-term deal that could go as high as $300 million.
Is he worth that type of mega-deal? Probably, although that’s an argument for another day given that it has little relevance to the decision to trade for him now. Boston’s chances to ink to him a massive deal next year are about the same as any contender with that much money to spend regardless of if they can bring him here a year early.
Sure, giving Machado a one-year trial run in Boston could give the Red Sox a better chance to sell him on the city, the organization and their passionate fan base. Perhaps that gives them a leg up in negotiations a year from now. Is it really worth giving up a massive haul in a trade now to find out?
Let’s be honest – there is zero chance that a Machado trade will be contingent on him signing an extension with the Red Sox. While Boston’s brass may push for that option, what incentive does Machado have to agree to that? It’s one thing for a player to show loyalty to the organization they broke into the big leagues with by signing a below-market extension. Why would Machado feel inclined to pass up a potentially bigger payday as a free agent by showing that same loyalty to a team he is being traded to?
If the Red Sox trade for Machado it will be a one-year rental with perhaps a slightly increased chance of convincing him to stay once he’s had a taste of the atmosphere here in Boston. Granted, that could backfire if Machado decides he doesn’t like it here. He certainly wouldn’t be the first star player to feel that way.
With no assurance that Machado would be here for the long-term, Boston would need to limit how much they are willing to give up for him. With few blue-chip prospects remaining in their farm system, a package for Machado will most likely need to begin with one of the young, cost-controlled players on the major league roster.
If Baltimore’s demand starts with Rafael Devers then that’s a deal-breaker. Machado may take over third base from Devers but that hardly makes the rookie expendable. Boston can stick Devers at DH with a potential move to first base down the line in order to make room for both. Giving up a young player of his caliber for what could amount to only one-year of an established star would be foolish.
Machado has expressed interest in moving back to his natural shortstop position. Would Xander Bogaerts satisfy the O’s as the centerpiece of a trade? It might, although the Red Sox should be hesitant to agree to that swap. Machado is clearly the more talented player but Bogaerts has an extra year of control before hitting free agency and won’t be nearly as expensive to re-sign. He’s shown the ability to contend for a batting title and the power to top 20 home runs. He’s yet to put those skills together in the same season but we know that’s his ceiling.
If we knew Machado was staying then the Red Sox wouldn’t think twice about giving up Bogaerts for him. Unfortunately, we don’t know that. Keeping Bogaerts for two more years followed by an extension at a more reasonable rate would be better than only one year of Machado.
Also, keep in mind that trading for Machado takes them out of the free agent market this year. Machado is projected to make $17.3 million in 2018. If the Red Sox are adding that much to their payroll and gearing up to sign him to a long-term deal next year then they aren’t signing J.D. Martinez this winter.
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Machado is a better all-around player than Martinez but not by enough to warrant giving up Bogaerts, Devers or another young asset to acquire him instead of the top free agent bat.
Leaking a rumor that the Red Sox are interested in Machado may simply be a ploy by Dombrowski to gain leverage in free agent negotiations with Martinez. Super-agent Scott Boras has been steadfast in holding to a high price tag for his client, resulting in the free agent market moving at a snail’s pace. The threat of Boston pivoting to a trade could force Boras to back down.
The market for a defensively challenged slugger looking for north of $20 million per year is a shallow pool to begin with, so Boras risks overplaying his hand if he allows the Red Sox to walk away from the table. Martinez to Boston almost seems inevitable in part because there aren’t many other suitors. Dombrowski may be trying to show Boras that he does have other options.
If Baltimore’s asking price turns out to be more palatable than expected then the Red Sox will still consider a deal. If we assume Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Devers and Bogaerts are off the table, what does that leave left to offer?
It’s unclear if Baltimore want prospects or major league caliber players in return for their star. If they want prospects then the Red Sox have little left in the cupboard. The best trade chip in the farm system is Jason Groome but the Red Sox won’t give up their top pitching prospect for a one-year rental. Michael Chavis and Sam Travis could entice Baltimore but neither is enough to convince them to deal Machado.
If their preference is for major league players then Jackie Bradley may interest the O’s, but only if they are prepared to continue the tear-down of their team by trading Adam Jones or convincing him to transition to right field.
The O’s need pitching and the Red Sox potentially have an abundance of starters. Eduardo Rodriguez could entice a Baltimore team that should be eager to rectify the mistake of sending him to Boston in 2014 for a half-season rental of Andrew Miller. E-Rod is currently recovering from knee surgery, limiting his trade value.
If Boston can convince Baltimore to a deal that doesn’t involve any of their untouchable assets then a deal could be feasible, but don’t count on it. The O’s don’t seem eager to trade their star and won’t sell low if they aren’t getting the offer they want. They can always try again to trade him near the deadline in July or simply hold on to him through the year, extend a qualifying offer next winter and recoup a draft pick when he signs elsewhere.
Hearing the Red Sox tied to trade rumors for a star player is enough to gather an angry mob of fans calling for Dombrowski’s head when a deal inevitably doesn’t happen. Most trade rumors don’t pan out, yet if the Red Sox can’t pull it off then that makes them failures? Sorry, that’s not how this works.
As much as we would all like to see Machado in a Red Sox uniform next season, if it doesn’t happen it’s because the front office wasn’t comfortable with the asking price. When you’re dealing for a one-year rental, there has to be a limit to how much you are willing to give up. Boston is in on these trade talks but they aren’t going all-in.