Red Sox Free Agency: Backup plans for J.D. Martinez

While many members of Red Sox Nation want the Red Sox to sign J.D. Martinez, if they don’t what would be their other options to fill their DH slot?

The Boston Red Sox signing of Mitch Moreland was like the divorced guy, who got set up with his first blind date; he meets her at the restaurant and it’s his ex-wife.

A large percentage of Red Sox Nation will be just as disappointed if president of baseball operations, Dave Dombroski, does not sign DH/OF J.D. Martinez for $140 million for seven years.

But, a closer look reveals that Martinez might not be the best fit for the Red Sox.

For example: Was his 45 HR season an aberration?

Forecasters Baseball Reference and Steamer say, YES.

If he returns to his average performance, Martinez will jack just 32 homers and, at that price, is he worth it?

OK, yes, Martinez had a great year in 2017, but was it a predictor of what he will do in 2018 and for the next seven, years?

The statheads at Steamer forecast a productive year for Martinez in 2018, but not as great as 2017 and Baseball Reference bases its prediction for 162 games on the average of the stats by complete career.

If you accept the widely held estimate that Martinez is seeking a 7-year deal for a total of $140 million, he seems to be a good bargain, if he hits 45 home runs again. Also, his price is relatively reasonable in that Carlos Santana just signed for $20 million per year for three years and Eirc Hosmer is reported to be looking for about the same yearly salary, but over 10-year period.

Steamer and Baseball Reference are close with their HR numbers [32/31], so let’s suppose Martinez hits 32 HRs with about 90 RBIs.

Is he worth $20 million a year for 7 years?

Twenty million divided by 45 HRs = $444,444.44 per HR.

Twenty million divided by 32 HRs = $625,000.00 per HR.

For comparison, let’s calculate the price of Moreland homers.

Moreland’s contract is 2 years for a total of $13 million, or $6.5 million per year.

Let’s combine the Steamer and Baseball Reference forecasts [23+22] and split the difference and suppose Moreland hits 23 HRs in 2018.

$6.5 million divided by 23 = approx. $282,609 per Moreland HR.

$20 million divided by 32 = $625,000 for each Martinez HR.

Yes, a Martinez HRs costs a lot more than a Moreland bomb:

About $346,000 more per homer.

If you repeat the same calculations for RBIs @ 75 and 91, you get:

Moreland per RBI: $ 86,667

Martinez per RBI: $220,000

A difference of about $134,000 per RBI.

At a ratio of 20 to 6.5 in millions, is Martinez worth that much for that long?

Is there a better bargain out there? A Martinez-lite for a lot less money invested?

You would assume that, against RHPs, lefty batting Moreland would be at first base and the DH slot would also have a lefty hitter. Against LHPs, righty batting Hanley Ramirez would man the bag and a RHB would take the DH spot.

Unless the Sox sign another left-handed hitter to fill that spot, who do we have on the current 40-man roster?