Red Sox Free Agency: Five high-profile players to avoid
The Boston Red Sox are expected to make a splash in free agency this winter but not all options on the market are worth shelling out for.
The Boston Red Sox have a loaded roster centered around an emerging young core of stars. They’ve won consecutive division titles, yet merely making it to the postseason is never enough in this city. The goal is always to bring home another World Series trophy and to do that in 2018 will require some upgrades to put this team over the top.
With a depleted farm system left nearly barren by president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski’s wheeling and dealing, free agency is the ideal path to finding what the Red Sox need.
If there’s anything we learned from the previous front office regime it’s that free agency can be a dangerous minefield littered with overpriced options that can blow up in your face unless you choose wisely. The Red Sox are still paying Pablo Sandoval to play elsewhere and are counting down the days until Hanley Ramirez‘ contract expires.
This year’s crop of free agents has its fair share of star power but not all of them are great fits for Boston. Whether it be the projected price tag, fielding a position this team doesn’t need to splurge on or being a player that carries too many red flags, these free agents are players the Red Sox should avoid this winter.
Yu Darvish
Yu Darvish is the top starting pitcher on the market but nowhere to be found on Boston’s wishlist.
This is no knock on the Japanese hurler. Darvish owns a career 3.42 ERA and routinely finds his name near the top of the strikeout leader boards with a 11.0 K/9 through five major league seasons. He’s a four-time All-Star who has finished inside the top-10 in Cy Young voting twice.
Some team is going to shell out big money for Darvish, it just won’t be the Red Sox. This isn’t about his talent, as the same goes for any of the top starting pitchers on the market. Darvish simply doesn’t fill the team’s most pressing need.
Boston’s rotation is well stocked with Chris Sale and Drew Pomeranz coming off stellar seasons. A healthy David Price will return to a starting role and has the ability to become a third ace on this staff. Rick Porcello‘s Cy Young season was clearly a mirage but he’s a far better pitcher than the one we saw last year and he should bounce back enough to a solid fourth starter. Eduardo Rodriguez still has tantalizing upside if he can ever get that knee healthy. He’ll begin the season on the disabled list but Steven Wright can hold down the back end of the rotation until he’s ready. If the knuckleball pitcher returns to his All-Star form of 2016 then E-Rod may find it challenging to take back his spot in the rotation.
The Red Sox have already paid a hefty price for pitching on both the free agent and trade markets over the last couple of years. There is no room for another high-profile starter and their financial resources are better served bolstering the lineup.
We can’t rule out a low-cost starter being signed for depth purposes but Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and any other expensive starting pitcher should be off the radar.
Jonathan Lucroy
Jonathan Lucroy was one of the top hitting catchers in baseball for about a handful of years. He was pegged as a trade target for the Red Sox as recently as 2016 before he was dealt to the Texas Rangers instead, so we know the front office has at least had their eye on him.
The Red Sox should not have him on their radar anymore.
Lucroy’s 24 home runs in 2016 ranked third among major league catchers. It’s not a staggering total by any means but finding power at a position where it’s typically scarce is one way to feed a lineup starved for a home run threat.
Except he may no longer be that caliber hitter. Lucroy hit a mere six home runs this year and saw his OPS fall to .716, which ranked 24th among catchers with a least 300 plate appearances. He improved in the second half following a trade to Colorado, hitting .310 with a .865 OPS in 46 games with the Rockies, yet his power failed to return. He slugged .437 and hit only two homers while hitting in the thin air at Coors Field.
The decline was more severe on the defensive end. Lucroy was at least average behind the plate for most of his career until posting a brutal -14 defensive runs saved this year. He threw out 27 percent of opposing base runners, a rate far below the duo the Red Sox currently have at the position.
Christian Vazquez is one of the game’s elite defensive catchers and his breakout season at the plate has earned him the chance to be the primary starter. Sandy Leon is a serviceable backup who provides quality defense and occasionally shows signs of life at the plate.
Boston may look to upgrade on Leon but it won’t be with Lucroy, who will surely sign with a team willing to pay him as an everyday starter. Lucroy would spend most of his time in Boston as the designated hitter while occasionally spelling Vazquez behind the plate, yet his bat doesn’t profile nearly as well if he’s not catching.
Wade Davis
The Red Sox may add another piece to the bullpen but they won’t look to the top of the reliever market to find one. This means we can cross Wade Davis off the list.
The three-time All-Star has been one of the best relievers in baseball since converting full time to the bullpen in 2014. He saved a career-high 32 games for the Chicago Cubs last season, posting a 2.30 ERA and 12.1 K/9. His 1.45 ERA over the last four seasons is the best in the majors among pitchers who have tossed at least 200 innings over that span.
There is no denying Davis’ brilliance but he’s not quite in the upper-echelon tier that Craig Kimbrel is in, yet he’ll get paid as if he is. Boston already has a lights-out closer and doesn’t need to splurge on an overpriced setup man. As appealing as it sounds to pair Kimbrel and Davis as a two-headed monster to lock down the final two innings, paying what it will take to sign him is a luxury Boston can’t afford when they have more pressing needs to focus their financial resources on.
With Tyler Thornburg returning from injury and a full season of Carson Smith, the Red Sox have a solid foundation for a bridge to Kimbrel in the 9th. If they add another reliever it will either be from the bargain bit or a lefty to replace Fernando Abad.
Mike Moustakas
A Red Sox team desperate for more power should have interest in a player who blasted 38 homers last year, right? Yet Mike Moustakas still seems like a risky investment.
His home run total tied for eighth in the majors and led all third basemen but his track record doesn’t suggest this production is sustainable. Moustakas’ previous career-high was 22 home runs in 2015 and he averaged just over 15 per season over the previous three years. Moose did show signs of his power emerging last year when he hit 7 home runs in 27 games before a torn ACL ended his season. Was that a sign of things to come or a small sample size fluke?
Even if his newfound power numbers are legitimate, Moustakas still comes with some concerns. He’s a free-swinger, posting a 55.6 percent swing rate that was one of the highest in the league. Surprisingly, his strikeout rate has reasonable for a power hitter who swings as frequently as Moustakas. However, the lack of strikeouts was offset by his dismal 5.7 BB% this season.
Moose isn’t a high-average hitter and his inability to draw walks leaves him with a discouraging .305 OBP for his career. He relies on power to prop up his value but has a limited track record as a true home run threat. If his home run total drifts back toward his pre-2017 levels then the team that signs him will be stuck paying star-caliber money to a merely average hitter.
He has been either about average or borderline elite at third base, depending on which defensive metrics you favor. Defensive Runs Saved hasn’t been as kind to measuring his abilities at the hot corner as UZR/150 has been, yet he has at least been solid for most of his career. Moose declined significantly this year with career-low marks of -8 DRS and -3.6 UZR/150, although that may have been due to working his way back from a knee injury.
If his work in the field bounces back then Moustakas provides a more reliable glove at third base than Rafael Devers but the Red Sox aren’t ready to give up on the 20-year old’s ability to handle the position. Moose would need to be willing to at least consider a move to first base or DH to be a fit in Boston. His value would dip if he wasn’t a third baseman, likely making him overpriced.
If we could bank on a repeat of his 38-homer performance then Moustakas would be a fine solution to Boston’s most glaring weakness yet in a market where power is plentiful there are better options that come with less risk or provide better value.
Not to pick on the Kansas City Royals, but their other star infield free agent is another the Red Sox should avoid.
Eric Hosmer is a fine hitter coming off a season where he set career-highs with a .318/.385/.498 slash line. He’s a former All-Star that warrants being mentioned among the best at his position.
The problem is that Hosmer doesn’t solve Boston’s need for power. He tied his career-high with 25 home runs this season, which barely topped what the Red Sox got from Mitch Moreland. Boston got more doubles out of Mitchy Two-Bags, so Hosmer produced only one more extra-base hit this year.
Hosmer is one of the best in the game at hitting to the opposite field, where Fenway’s Green Monster provides an inviting target. Unfortunately, his swing isn’t tailored to take advantage of that short left field wall. Only three major league hitters owned a higher ground ball rate than Hosmer’s 55.6 GB% this season. In a year where the launch angle craze led to a record number of home runs, Hosmer has taken the opposite approach. While his method has done wonders for his batting average, it’s not the type of production the Red Sox need.
Batting average is one of the few advantages Hosmer has over Moreland, whose struggles against lefties make him more suited for a platoon role. Split time at first base between Moreland and Sam Travis, who crushed lefties in his limited time in the big leagues this season, and the results won’t be too far off from what Hosmer would provide for a fraction of the price.
Hosmer’s defense has also been vastly overrated. Yes, he has an impressive collection of Gold Glove Awards but the advanced metrics haven’t rated him very well. He posted a -7 DRS and -0.4 UZR/150 that placed him well behind Moreland this year.
Next: Pros/Cons of signing J.D. Martinez
Hosmer is projected to receive the most lucrative contract of any free agent hitter after J.D. Martinez, another free agent target for the Red Sox to consider. Boston should either pay up for Martinez or look to find a cheaper source of power at either first base or DH.