Red Sox: Weighing the pros/cons of signing free agent J.D. Martinez
J.D. Martinez is the top power bat available on the free agent market but is he worth the price it will take for the Boston Red Sox to sign him?
We all know that the Boston Red Sox have a need for a power bat to anchor their lineup and are fortunate enough to have owners willing to dip into luxury tax territory to find one. J.D. Martinez is the best hitter on the free agent market so naturally, he should be the top target.
Unfortunately, it’s not that simple. Martinez is undoubtedly a great hitter but he’s not without his flaws. As with any important decision, we must weigh the pros and cons to determine if signing Martinez would be worthwhile.
It’s easy for fans to say the Red Sox should splurge on the best available player, yet that doesn’t necessarily mean it makes sense from a business perspective. As much as Boston’s brass wants to bring home another World Series trophy, make no mistake that they are still running a business. Throwing money blindly at the top available free agent at a position of need is how we ended up with Pablo Sandoval.
Martinez would certainly add more home runs to the Red Sox lineup but does that offset the risks or make him worth the contract he’ll demand? To find out, we’ll break down his strengths and weaknesses to assess what Martinez should be worth.
PROS
The appeal for Matinez comes almost exclusively from his bat. The Red Sox need power and he can provide it.
Martinez blasted 45 home runs this year in time split between the Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks. Only two other major league hitters tallied more. Giancarlo Stanton doesn’t appear to have any interest in being traded to Boston. The Red Sox need a slugger to match up with the threat Aaron Judge provides to the New York Yankees lineup and Martinez is capable of being that guy.
The .690 slugging percentage Martinez produced led the majors this year and his 1.066 OPS was second. He also led the majors with a .387 ISO, tied for second with a .430 wOBA and was third with a 166 wRC+ this season.
Martinez crushes the ball as well as almost anyone. His staggering 49 percent hard contact rate was the best in the majors this year. His 91.4 mph average exit velocity tied for 12th among hitters with at least 250 plate appearances. Martinez was also third with a 33.8 HR/FB ratio.
2017 was a career season for Martinez but it’s not as if he came out of nowhere in a contract year. Since his breakout season with the Tigers in 2014, Martinez is tenth in the majors with 128 home runs. He’s also fourth with a .574 slugging percentage, fifth with a .148 wRC+ and sixth with a .392 wOBA.
No matter how you look at it, Martinez is one of the best sluggers in baseball over the last four years.
One of the benefits of signing Martinez is that it only takes money. The Red Sox don’t need to raid what remains of their farm system to obtain him. Since he was traded mid-season, Arizona was prevented from offering Martinez a qualifying offer, allowing another team to sign him in free agency without sacrificing a valuable draft pick. That’s not the case for some of the other top available bats on the market.
Dave Dombrowski has a relationship with Martinez from their days together in Detroit. He gave Martinez a shot after the Houston Astros gave up on him and saw first-hand as he developed into a star. That could certainly be a factor in Boston’s favor in free agent discussions.
CONS
While Martinez is one of the top hitters in baseball he’s not necessarily among the best players. There are other aspects of the game beyond smacking the ball out of the park.
Defense is a key aspect as well, which is an area that Martinez is deficient in. His -5 defensive runs saved ranked 40th out of 56 qualified outfielders and his -14.8 UZR/150 was dead last. He also lacks a strong throwing arm to prevent runners from advancing, with a -7.7 ARM rating that ranked ahead of only two other MLB outfielders.
Martinez is best suited as a designated hitter, especially on a Red Sox team that is already loaded in the outfield. He’s obviously not moving Mookie Betts out of right field, the position which Martinez has primarily played throughout his career. He’s capable of playing left field but Andrew Benintendi isn’t going anywhere either. There have been rumors that Jackie Bradley could be moved this winter for a more consistent hitter. While Benny could conceivably move to center field to allow Martinez to take his spot in left, this scenario would result in a drastic defensive decline at two positions.
Baserunning is another area where Martinez struggles. He’s essentially a non-factor as a base stealer, with his career-high of six coming four years ago. Martinez also posted a dismal -5.7 BsR, FanGraph’s all-encompassing baserunning statistic, that ranked outside the top 200 in the majors (minimum 400 plate appearances).
As great as Martinez is at the plate, his flaws in other areas of the game drag down his value. No wonder his 3.8 fWAR placed him only 44th among major league hitters. Since 2014, Martinez has compiled a 14.6 fWAR that ties him for 34th in the majors among hitters over that span.
I would be remiss not to mention the health concerns that come with Martinez. He missed the first few weeks of this season with a sprained foot and ended up appearing in only 119 games. He’s played in more than 123 games only once in his career – in 2015 when he made his only All-Star appearance.
WHAT HE’S WORTH
Martinez is represented by super-agent Scott Boras, who to no surprise is trying to inflate the value of his client by highlighting his strengths and ignoring the weaknesses. Boras is rumored to be seeking a $200 million deal for Martinez, which seems reasonable if we were to only focus on his ability to hit.
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Which is why we’re looking at the overall package to determine his value. Teams are smarter now and won’t be swayed by power numbers alone. Power is cheaper than ever to find now that everyone his altering their swing to hit more home runs – well, everyone except the Red Sox.
Superstars need to bring more to the table than power numbers, yet Martinez offers little else beyond that. This isn’t to say the Red Sox shouldn’t be interested. They should absolutely consider him a top target given their dire need for the power Martinez has to offer. As long as the price tag remains reasonable.
Martinez has averaged about 3.6 fWAR over the last four years. If a win above replacement is worth approximately $8 million on the open market, Martinez would have been worth about $28 million per season during that span. We should expect his production to remain in the same territory for at least a few more years, with some expected decline on the backend of the deal. We also have to factor in that he’ll provide no defensive value if he is locked in at DH. An average annual value of $25 million should be in the ballpark for what he’s worth, depending on the duration of the deal.
The closest recent free agent comparison to Martinez would be Yoenis Cespedes. The New York Mets outfielder has compiled a 14.8 fWAR over the last four seasons that puts him barely ahead of Martinez. Cespedes isn’t quite the same caliber hitter but he’s a much better defender. He was also a year older than Martinez when he hit free agency, so it’s reasonable to expect Martinez to receive at least a five-year deal with perhaps a bit lower average annual value.
A five-year, $125 million deal would be a reasonable target for Martinez. If the 30-year old insists six years then it shouldn’t be a deal-breaker, although the average annual value should dip to offset the risks of a longer-term contract. A six-year, $138 million matches the contract I managed to land Martinez for as faux GM for the Red Sox in the FanSided MLB Winter Meetings Simulation last month.
Next: Free Agent Target: Matt Adams
Boras is a master of pitting teams against each other to drive up the price. There aren’t an overwhelming number of teams with the payroll space and need for an outfielder/DH, yet all it takes is one other motivated suitor to start a bidding war. I expect the price to end up being higher than my estimate, which means the Red Sox may need to overpay to sign him but not by much. If the price surpasses $160 million then Dombrowski would be wise to pivot in another direction.