Why is Drew Smyly being non-tendered? The quick answer is 2017 is a void in his baseball history as the result of you-know-what type of elbow surgery. Smyly was with Seattle for which they had traded three prospects, so the Mariners have little to show for having Smyly around.
Is a 3-1 record, 2.18 ERA, and 0.99 WHIP impressive? That is what Smyly has accomplished against Boston with his decent 92 MPH fastball, 12-6 curve, change-up, and slider. Seemed every time Smyly took the mound against Boston he looked more like Clayton Kershaw than a run of the mill lefty.
With Smyly – now 28-years-old – it is all about recovery and a team having patience. If Smyly returns to his career numbers, you have a pitcher who gives a better than 50/50 shot at winning. For his career, Smyly has a 3.74 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9. A downside is a 36.3 GB%. In his last healthy season (2016) the 7-12 Smyly had a 2.0 fWAR with Tampa.
The Red Sox are lefty-heavy and Smyly – like Rodriguez – will not be ready for the April opening bell. A certain detriment for any team that has a Veruca Salt “I want it now” approach to their roster, but sometimes patience can be rewarded as invariably pitching casualties accumulate as the season progresses.
The chances are the Red Sox will pass on Smyly, but the potential of a possible lower rotation starter with some talent may be tempting if the money is low enough.
Signing Possibility: Moderate/Low