Red Sox: FanSided MLB Winter Meetings simulation results

The FanSided MLB Site Experts collaborated on an offseason simulation by acting as the GM of our respective teams. What moves did the Boston Red Sox make?

Have you ever wondered what it would be like to act as the general manager of the Boston Red Sox? That’s an opportunity I was able to experience by participating in FanSided’s 2017 MLB Winter Meetings.

The Site Experts from each of the MLB FanSided sites banded together to conduct a simulation of the offseason. Each Site Expert acted as faux GM of their respective site to bid on free agents, negotiate trades and manage the payroll.

The official rules of this simulation were outlined in the announcement of the FanSided Winter Meetings last week, but the gist of it is that we were required to adhere to the current 40-man roster as of when the simulation began as a starting point. We were also limited to staying within 15 percent of last season’s Opening Day payroll, according to COTS.

The Red Sox Opening Day payroll in 2017 was just north of $197 million. Add 15 percent to that total and we get an unofficial salary cap of $226 million. While Dave Dombrowski isn’t limited to the same budget, it’s unlikely Boston will go more than $40 million over the luxury tax threshold, which would subject them to the steepest penalties for non-repeat offenders. Therefore, the cap we’re working with is a fair estimate of what the team is expected to spend this winter.

I entered this simulation prioritizing a power threat to anchor the Red Sox lineup. Boston’s roster is set at most positions but they desperately need to add some punch to an offense that finished last in the league in home runs this year. I explored both free agency and trade options, ultimately coming away with a player who adequately fills that need.

Which slugger did the Red Sox add in this simulation and who else was considered? Let’s break down the moves and discussions that occurred during the FanSided Winter Meetings.

Naturally, my first step in this process of finding a new slugger was to contact the Miami Marlins Site Expert about the availability of reigning NL MVP and home run king Giancarlo Stanton.

It was reported earlier this month that the asking price from the Marlins for Stanton is “shockingly high” and I found this to be the same when negotiating with Marlins Maniacs.

I’ve outlined my opinion on what it should take to trade for Stanton, essentially viewing this as a glorified salary dump for Miami. They’ll require some useful pieces in return but can’t possibly expect a team to surrender their best assets if they want to unload the entirety of Stanton’s massive $295 million contract.

That unrealistic demand is exactly what Marlins Maniacs used as a starting point. Their initial offer asked us to surrender top prospect Jay Groome, along with Brock Holt and at least two other Top-30 prospects from the Red Sox farm system.

The discussing quickly unraveled from there. No matter how great Stanton is, I wasn’t willing to take on his albatross contract and give up Groome plus other assets. Not when there are other appealing power threats available on the free agent market who can be signed for less money without giving up any assets.

The conversation turned to Marcell Ozuna. The 27-year old hit 37 home runs with a .924 OPS and won a Gold Glove in left field this season. He’s projected to make $10.9 million in arbitration and remains under team control for two more seasons. While not the caliber hitter that Stanton is, Ozuna’s far more palatable salary left me open to giving up more in a trade for him.

Adding Ozuna would have necessitated dealing Jackie Bradley and sliding Andrew Benintendi over to center field. It would be a downgrade defensively in center field but Benny would do fine with a pair of Gold Glove corner outfielders on either side of him. The offensive production Ozuna provides would have made the deal well worth it.

I would have been willing to surrender Groome, Bradley and a lower-tier prospect for Ozuna but just as we seemed to be nearing an agreement, Marlins Maniacs threw a wrench in my plans. They wanted all that and more for Ozuna, while also insisting that we take Martin Prado‘s undesirable contract (2-years, $28.5 million remaining).

Ozuna plus Prado would be owed a combined salary of more than what Stanton will make over the next two years. It takes out the long-term risk but also brings in players that aren’t at Stanton’s superstar level. The Red Sox would have little use for Prado given they have better utility infielder options than a 34-year old on the decline coming off an injury-plagued season.

I offered a number of alternative scenarios, all of which were shot down. I would have taken Prado if Groome or Bradley were left out of the deal but Miami couldn’t have both if they were dumping his salary on us. I also asked to swap out Prado for Brad Ziegler (1-year, $9 million remaining). No dice.

Miami ended up keeping both Stanton and Ozuna. I honestly don’t see a realistic scenario where the rebuilding Marlins keep Stanton’s contract but Marlins Maniac did somehow manage to pawn off Prado and Ziegler’s contracts on other teams and felt content with where their payroll was in the end.

As much as the Red Sox could have used the bat of either Stanton or Ozuna, I wasn’t willing to meet the steep asking price and take on that much salary to do it. Not when I could accomplish my goals through free agency instead.

The risk of dipping into the free agent pool paid off when I managed to sign J.D. Martinez to a five-year, $117 million deal with a sixth-year $21 million player option.

The contract was structured with declining salaries. Martinez would receive $25 million in each of the first two years, $23 million in 2020 and 2021, then $21 million in 2022. If Martinez were to opt in on his player option it would bring the total to a six-year, $138 million deal.

The declining salary protects the Red Sox from any decline in production Martinez might hit as he enters his mid-30’s. He also will be owed less at the same time that Boston needs to start extending the young core of their roster. Frontloading the deal so that he’s overpaid for the next two years allows the Red Sox to have a bit more wiggle room in their budget when it comes time to pay Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts.

Martinez is coming off a career year in which he hit .303/.376/.690 with 45 home runs and 104 RBI in time split between the Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks. He led the majors in slugging, was second in OPS and third in home runs.

The Red Sox were 14th in the AL in slugging, 11th in OPS and dead last in home runs. It’s a solid bet they would improve significantly with Martinez in the lineup.

The plan would be to use Martinez primarily as a DH, although he could see occasional time in the outfield. This would allow the Red Sox to keep their current outfield intact, which may not have been the case if we acquired some of the other top available free agents or either of the Marlins star outfielders.

Martinez didn’t come cheap but a deal that won’t last beyond six years is reasonable for the 30-year old. He’ll struggle to meet value serving as a DH but the defensively challenged Martinez is better off in that spot. He’s a far superior hitter than anyone else available on the free agent market and fills Boston’s desperate need for a home run threat.

In reality, Martinez is unlikely to get anywhere near the $200 million deal agent Scott Boras is predicting, yet I’m a bit surprised none of my fellow site experts tried to get in a bidding war with me for his services. I expected at least one other team to challenge my bid for the top free agent bat on the market but my initial offer was accepted. There are certainly limits to how high I would go for Martinez but if the Red Sox actually do sign him for less than $140 million then I’ll be thrilled.

Signing Martinez left me no room for additional moves in free agency, as his $25 million salary for 2018 put me just shy of my estimated payroll cap. However, if I had been outbid for Martinez, there were contingencies in place.

The Kansas City Royals managed to re-sign first baseman Eric Hosmer in our simulation to a six-year, $100 million deal that included incentives. I was willing to offer Hosmer a six-year, $105 million deal, which was withdrawn once the Martinez signing became official. I couldn’t afford to pay both free agents and still remain within a 15 percent payroll increase from last season. It’s unclear if the Site Expert from Kings of Kauffman would have raised their offer to compete with mine.

While I view Hosmer as the second-best free agent hitter on the market, he doesn’t do quite enough to solve Boston’s power problem. However, signing him instead of Martinez would have left approximately $8 million in space below our unofficial salary cap. Pairing Hosmer with a lower-cost power bat could have been a feasible alternative to signing Martinez.

My Plan C if I couldn’t sign either Martinez or Hosmer was Jay Bruce. I offered a 2-year, $30 million deal for the left-handed slugger, who has five seasons with 30+ homers on his resume. The average annual value is a bit of a raise from what Bruce earned last year, while the short-term duration lines up well with when the Red Sox will need to start extending their young core.

Conceivably, I could have signed both Hosmer and Bruce. In order to afford both, I would have needed to deal Jackie Bradley and the $6 million he’s projected to earn in arbitration for a package of prospects. Bruce would then take over in left field with Benintendi sliding to center. I prefer the option of signing Martinez and keeping JBJ, so glad that panned out, yet Hosmer/Bruce would be a solid backup plan.

I also would have considered pairing Hosmer with a cheaper bat, such as Logan Morrison or Lucas Duda. In that scenario, I could afford to keep Bradley, put Hosmer at first base and use the other free agent signee to platoon at DH with Hanley Ramirez. I didn’t place a bid on Morrison or Duda but each was signed in our simulation for no more than $10 million per year, so it wouldn’t have been difficult to clear room for one of them.

In addition to the trade talks with the Marlins, there were other potential deals discussed during this simulation.

Signing Martinez in free agency was my top priority but if the bidding for him got out of control I was prepared to drop out and pivot toward another path to find a home run hitter. The Red Sox don’t have much left in the farm system to trade but there were some offers floated for attainable power bats.

The Baltimore Orioles offered Chris Davis, but I had no interest in the strikeout machine. His home run totals and OPS have dipped drastically over the last three years since he signed a massive contract extension with the O’s that still owes him $115 million over the next five years. That’s essentially what I paid for Martinez, a far better hitter.

The Oakland A’s offered Khris Davis, who has posted back-to-back 40+ homer seasons. He would have been an appealing DH option if signing Martinez hadn’t panned out. We never got too deep into discussing a deal while waiting for the free agency results but it would have taken a package centered around Sam Travis to pry Davis out of Oakland. That’s a reasonable price for a player entering his second year of arbitration and under control for two more seasons. If I paired that deal with signing Hosmer to play first base then Travis would have been expendable.

Trading with the Chicago White Sox turned out well for Boston last year so I went back to them again asking about Jose Abreu. We seemed to be closing in on an agreement that would have been contingent on whether or not the Red Sox could sign Martinez. I couldn’t afford both and preferred signing a free agent over trading away premium assets. Southside Showdown ended up extending Abreu to a five-year, $105 million deal, which ended our trade talks.

There were several teams that inquired about the availability of Bradley, including the Royals and Giants. I was only open to moving JBJ if I needed to create space in the outfield for the power bat we needed or to free payroll space to add a second free agent.

Other than the Ozuna talks with the Marlins that fell apart, teams were only offering prospects in return for Bradley and no blue-chip talents were on the table. I felt it was best to hang on to Bradley unless my other moves forced my hand.