Red Sox: FanSided MLB Winter Meetings simulation results
By Sean Penney
As much as the Red Sox could have used the bat of either Stanton or Ozuna, I wasn’t willing to meet the steep asking price and take on that much salary to do it. Not when I could accomplish my goals through free agency instead.
The risk of dipping into the free agent pool paid off when I managed to sign J.D. Martinez to a five-year, $117 million deal with a sixth-year $21 million player option.
The contract was structured with declining salaries. Martinez would receive $25 million in each of the first two years, $23 million in 2020 and 2021, then $21 million in 2022. If Martinez were to opt in on his player option it would bring the total to a six-year, $138 million deal.
The declining salary protects the Red Sox from any decline in production Martinez might hit as he enters his mid-30’s. He also will be owed less at the same time that Boston needs to start extending the young core of their roster. Frontloading the deal so that he’s overpaid for the next two years allows the Red Sox to have a bit more wiggle room in their budget when it comes time to pay Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts.
Martinez is coming off a career year in which he hit .303/.376/.690 with 45 home runs and 104 RBI in time split between the Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks. He led the majors in slugging, was second in OPS and third in home runs.
The Red Sox were 14th in the AL in slugging, 11th in OPS and dead last in home runs. It’s a solid bet they would improve significantly with Martinez in the lineup.
The plan would be to use Martinez primarily as a DH, although he could see occasional time in the outfield. This would allow the Red Sox to keep their current outfield intact, which may not have been the case if we acquired some of the other top available free agents or either of the Marlins star outfielders.
Martinez didn’t come cheap but a deal that won’t last beyond six years is reasonable for the 30-year old. He’ll struggle to meet value serving as a DH but the defensively challenged Martinez is better off in that spot. He’s a far superior hitter than anyone else available on the free agent market and fills Boston’s desperate need for a home run threat.
In reality, Martinez is unlikely to get anywhere near the $200 million deal agent Scott Boras is predicting, yet I’m a bit surprised none of my fellow site experts tried to get in a bidding war with me for his services. I expected at least one other team to challenge my bid for the top free agent bat on the market but my initial offer was accepted. There are certainly limits to how high I would go for Martinez but if the Red Sox actually do sign him for less than $140 million then I’ll be thrilled.