Red Sox assets that should be off limits in trade talks
The Boston Red Sox could explore the trade market to find the power bat they need but some assets should be considered untouchable.
Dave Dombrowski has never been shy about making a blockbuster trade. In his time as president of baseball operations for the Boston Red Sox, he has swung a number of deals to improve the major league roster at the expense of the minor league system.
The farm isn’t completely barren but it has been depleted over the past couple of years. Some of that can be attributed to the organization’s top prospects being promoted to the big leagues, yet Dombrowski’s wheeling and dealing has played a significant part.
It’s time for Dombrowski to reign in his instinct to empty the prospect cupboard. The Red Sox desperately need a power bat to anchor their lineup but there are ways to go about finding one without surrendering the few appealing prospects left in the system.
No asset is ever truly untouchable. For the right price, anyone can be made available. If the Los Angeles Angels call offering Mike Trout, Dombrowski should be ready to give up anyone they ask for. Sadly, that isn’t going to happen.
When assessing realistic trade scenarios, there are various levels of how attainable the Red Sox should view their assets. For the purposes of this exercise, we’re only looking at prospects, rookies and other cost-controlled young players with limited major league experience. We can safely assume that Mookie Betts and Chris Sale aren’t on the trading block and other teams won’t be foolish enough to ask for them.
Teams may be bold enough to ask for the top young assets in the Red Sox organization but which ones should they resist surrendering?
The Red Sox had a pair of exciting young rookies flash tremendous potential in 2017. Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers are two of the pillars of the team’s young core and aren’t going anywhere.
Benintendi may have been overshadowed in the Rookie of the Year race by Aaron Judge but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t impressive. His .271 batting average was lower than expected from a hitter with such a smooth swing but Benintendi’s keen eye drew a healthy number of walks, resulting in a solid .352 OBP that ranked 25th in the league. He was also one of only six AL hitters to reach 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He’s only 23 years old, so his rookie numbers should be considered his floor looking ahead at the next several years as he approaches his prime.
The Red Sox need more home runs and they’ll improve in that area by virtue of having Devers in the lineup for a full season. The 21-year old posted a .819 OPS that led all Red Sox hitters who appeared in at least 50 games with the team. He blasted 10 home runs after getting called up to the majors in late July, eight of which came within his first 20 career games. Devers hit a bit of a slump late in the summer before picking it back up again down the stretch and into the postseason.
Both of these rookies have the upside to make multiple All-Star appearances in their career. The Red Sox want to add that type of player now but why sacrifice assets who they expect to become that in the near future to solve a short-term problem?
The Red Sox have a loaded rotation that they assembled through free agency and trades. The franchise hasn’t had a homegrown pitcher that they drafted pan out since they selected Clay Buchholz in 2005. We can debate how successful the enigmatic Buchholz was, in which case finding a true ace that the Red Sox have developed means going back to when they drafted Jon Lester in 2002.
The lack of success with young pitching prospects makes hanging on to the top arms in their system a priority. It’s been a while since the organization has groomed a frontline starter but they may have a future ace in Jason Groome. The lefty was selected 12th overall in the 2016 draft and has already vaulted to the top of the Red Sox prospect list and No. 42 overall in MLB.com’s rankings.
Groome works with a mid-90’s fastball that should increase in velocity as he gets stronger. His best weapon is a power curveball that many scouts believe was the best breaking ball in his draft class.
It’s always difficult to project pitching prospects and Groome comes with some maturity issues that could hinder his progress (although those concerns have been overblown). The 19-year old may not be ready to debut before 2020 but by that point, the Red Sox will need to invest in an extension for Sale, David Price could opt out of his contract, Drew Pomeranz will hit free agency and Rick Porcello will be off the books. Boston’s rotation could look vastly different by the time Groome is ready. Building a new staff around a cheap young pitcher with ace potential will allow the Red Sox to spend money to fill in the rest of the rotation.
The Red Sox should hang on to Tanner Houck for the same reason, although to a lesser extent. The No. 24 overall pick in the 2017 draft doesn’t have the high ceiling that Groome does but he’s still the second-best pitching prospect in Boston’s system.
His secondary pitches are still a work in progress, leading some to believe he’s destined for the bullpen. However, he throws a blazing fastball that tops out at 98 mph with good sink that he commands well. If he does convert to a reliever then he has the potential to be a high-leverage bullpen weapon who generates plenty of strikeouts, perhaps even as a closer. It’s too early to give up on him yet as a starter, so the Red Sox should keep him, at least for now, to further evaluate his value.
The Red Sox have a few infield prospects who could soon be knocking on the door to the big leagues.
Sam Travis made his major league debut this year but has yet to solidify an everyday role. A case can be made that he deserves one heading into next season but the Red Sox don’t seem ready to commit to that yet and it may depend on what they do in free agency.
Travis has the potential to hit for a solid average and get on base but his power is underwhelming for a first baseman. His swing isn’t tailored toward hitting home runs and he failed to go deep in 33 games with the Red Sox this year. He only hit six home runs in 82 games with Triple-A Pawtucket to go along with a disappointing .375 slugging percentage. He should develop into a good hitter but not the power threat this team currently needs.
Michael Chavis joins Groome as the only other prospect in the Red Sox system to make MLB.com’s Top-100 list. Some view him as expendable with Devers blocking his path to the big leagues at third base, yet giving away prospects based on the lack of an opening is shortsighted. Either Devers or Chavis could be moved to first base or DH to make room for both.
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Bobby Dalbec is another third baseman with no clear path to the majors. The 22-year old hasn’t played above Single-A ball so the Red Sox have some time before they are forced to find a spot for him. He has 30+ homer upside with the ability to hit for a decent average.
Chavis has the upside to warrant keeping him and figuring out how he fits on the roster later. If the opportunity to acquire an All-Star caliber hitter presents itself then Chavis is a chip they can consider using but they shouldn’t be eager to move him simply because he plays the same position as Devers.
Travis would be the preferred option of the two if they had to move one of them due to his lack of power upside but there is no rush to deal him either. If the Red Sox don’t sign a power-hitting first baseman or DH then they may need Travis to start at first base so that Hanley Ramirez can stay at DH. Even if they do sign another option to fill one of those roles, Travis would be a useful backup at first base who could help ensure Ramirez’ playing time is limited just enough to prevent his 2019 option from vesting.
Dalbec is the lowest rated prospect of the three, ranking 10th in the Red Sox system, which means he’d also bring back less in return. Boston isn’t acquiring a 30+ homer bat for Dalbec so why give up on him if they think he can become that?
These players are out of minor league options, which means the Red Sox have to put them on the Opening Day roster to avoid potentially losing them. Unfortunately, there isn’t a clear role available for them, which could make them expendable even if they would prefer to keep them.
Brian Johnson has been successful at the Triple-A level. While that hasn’t translated to the majors yet, he has shown flashes of potential. His complete game, five-hit shutout against the Seattle Mariners in May was a glimpse of what the lefty is capable of. Boston’s rotation doesn’t have a current opening, so they plan on transitioning Johnson to the bullpen in order to find room for him on the roster.
His potential is higher than that of a middle reliever, which would make Johnson more valuable to a team that can put him in the rotation. He would be a useful left-handed reliever for Boston who could provide occasional spot starts but his upside is wasted in that role. If he could be used as a trade chip to help improve other areas of the roster then it could benefit both Johnson and the Red Sox.
Blake Swihart is a former top prospect who has yet to solidify a role. The Red Sox haven’t completely given up on him as a catcher but haven’t shown enough confidence in his defensive skills to rely on him as the backup to Christian Vazquez. He’s versatile enough to play other positions, so the Red Sox could use him in a utility role, but it’s hard to see how Boston can offer him steady playing time.
His bat still has a high ceiling so if another team believes he can stick at catcher then he has more value to them than he does to the Red Sox. If Swihart is going to reach his potential it may need to be with another organization.
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Boston won’t simply give either of these players away but if they had to deal one of their best available assets then they should push to include Johnson or Swihart ahead of any of the afforementioned prospects.