Red Sox: 2017 offseason BSI round table discussion
The BoSox Injection staff gathered together to answer five key questions about free agency and trades facing the Boston Red Sox this offseason.
There is one thing we can all agree on – the Boston Red Sox need to add some pop to their lineup.
The Red Sox are coming off a season in which they finished last in the American League in home runs. They were also next to last in slugging and 11th in OPS. This remains a lineup full of talented hitters who found a variety of different ways to score, yet the lack of a true power threat left them a middling sixth in the league in runs scored after leading the majors in 2016.
The obvious explanation for this decline is the retirement of David Ortiz. Rather than attempting to replace one of the greatest hitters in franchise history, the Red Sox focused on upgrading the pitching staff to offset the expected decline in offensive production.
The result was a second consecutive division title followed by another early playoff exit. Boston boasted one of the top pitching staffs in baseball but an inability to mash their ways to victory left them short of being a championship contender.
We know that upgrading the lineup with a home run threat is the top priority this winter, yet we can have varying opinions on how to go about solving that weakness. I asked our BoSox Injection staff five questions pertaining to free agency and trade rumors to find their opinions on the various paths the Red Sox could explore this offseason.
What assets would you be willing to offer the Miami Marlins for Giancarlo Stanton, assuming the Red Sox would take on his entire contract?
Sean Penney: Not as much as you might think. I outlined this in more detail last week, but the gist of it is that Miami needs to dump Stanton’s salary as desperately as Boston needs his power bat. No team is going to give up their best assets in order to take on the $295 million still owed on that contract. Most teams can’t afford the long-term risk, while Stanton’s no-trade clause shrinks the shallow pool of suitors further. A young, cost-controlled talent like Jackie Bradley or Eduardo Rodriguez could headline the deal, along with a few mid-tier prospects. If Miami wants all prospects in return then a package can be assembled around just about anyone other than Jay Groome or Michael Chavis.
Rick McNair: That contract is a burden and to assume it means a “hometown” discount in talent sent to Miami. I would offer them any three of our top ten prospects since our farm system looks like a wheat field after a locust swarm has hit. As far as MLB talent the only two I would part with if prospects were not the answer is Jackie Bradley or Xander Bogaerts. Both will probably be looking at $100 Million soon. Let that be Miami’s problem.
Josh Greenberg: While there are few players I’d like to see in a Red Sox uniform more than Stanton, I simply wouldn’t be willing to offer the assets I know it would take to get him. While I could name a variety of players I’d give up for him, none of them would be the players the Marlins would be looking for. I’m certain Miami would ask for at least two of Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, and Rafael Devers, and possibly all three. While the Red Sox need an impact bat, losing those three would be a bitter pill to swallow. If Stanton struggled at all, riots would break out across Boston. Giving up that much talent for one player, even one as spectacular as Stanton, just isn’t a good idea. Were I in Dave Dombrowski’s shoes, I’d simply look elsewhere for a new power bat and continue to admire Stanton from afar.
Jake Sauberman: Almost nothing. Of course this answer largely depends on how much money the Red Sox would be taking back, but that answer is almost definitely “a whole lot”. The Marlins’ main reason for dealing Stanton is to clear salary, not necessarily acquire elite young talent. So I would give pretty much nothing of value for Stanton when there is an equal hitter (J.D. Martinez) available on the market for only dollars.
Bryson Gordon: First of all, I would like to mention that I am 100% pro-Stanton. The Red Sox have a power shortage, and there is no better way to help that than getting the best home run hitter in baseball. If the Red Sox are taking on all of the contract, they should start the bidding with one, and only one of these three: Jackie Bradley Jr, Xander Bogaerts, and Eduardo Rodriguez. After that, they should be willing to offer one high level prospect, maybe Michael Chavis or Jason Groome. Then to finish the deal, adding in one mid-level prospect should do the trick. But if the Red Sox are taking the full contract, there is no scenario where they should offer Devers, Benintendi, or Betts.
Is J.D Martinez worth the $200 million contract he’s rumored to be seeking?
Sean: Is he worth it? Not when you consider that his poor defensive skills limit his value. If he transitions into a full-time DH at any point over the course of that contract then the price tag will seem even more outrageous. That being said, any team willing to explore the top-tier options on the free agent market has to be willing to overpay. Martinez would provide a quick fix to Boston’s offensive struggles, so they may be willing to pull the trigger even if his contract won’t turn out to be a good value. Still, $200 million is too high. That assumes an 8-year contract, which is too long for the 30-year old Martinez. The average annual value is about right though. I would go $23 million per year over six years, which would be $138 million. He would be worth that price. A bidding war will almost certainly push it higher. The Red Sox should be willing to overpay to some extent but if the price soars beyond $175 then they should pivot in another direction.
Rick: A few years ago my wife was stunned that a neighborhood house was on the market for $350,000. Why? Other similar homes had sold for much less. I told her you can ask anything you want, but getting it is another issue. The home sold for $288,000. Maybe Boras was the original listing broker? Martinez is asking high and see what transpires. Martinez is Manny-Lite since he can hit, but not like Manny Ramirez. I can see him getting Hanley Ramirez money but for a few more years tacked on.
Josh: In today’s market, in which contracts worth north of $200 million no longer seem out of the ordinary, a player of J.D. Martinez’s caliber is absolutely worth it. While one might point out that Martinez’s career year in 2017 saw him hit almost 20 points above his career average, the counter to that argument is that two bad years at the beginning of his career weigh down his lifetime numbers. He finished with an average of .303 or better in three of six full seasons, and an OPS of .908 or better in three seasons. While last season was the first in which he topped 40 home runs and just the second in which he drove in more than 100 runs, it was also the first time he found himself part of a competent offense. Even the greatest hitters need protection around them in the lineup. The fact that Martinez hit 38 homers and recorded 102 RBI on an atrocious Detroit Tigers team in 2015 speaks volumes about his talent as a hitter. Martinez is worth $200 million, and the Red Sox shouldn’t hesitate to give it to him.
Jake: No. Martinez is one of the best hitters in baseball, but a piece of that value is eaten away by his defensive deficiency. The guy had a 1.066 OPS and that still only netted a 4.1 WAR. We don’t know if he can replicate those offensive numbers over a full season again, and that value isn’t worth $200 million. Now age 30, I wouldn’t give Martinez more than six years, and I think $25-$27 milion annually is a fair estimate. So six years, $162 million is as high as I go.
Bryson: I do not think JD Martinez is worth $200 million, and I don’t think the Red Sox should be willing to pay it either. His 2017 OPS was over 140 points higher than his previous career high. He hit a career high in home runs, and only hit 30+ homers for the second time in his career. The Red Sox are looking for a perennial 30+ home run hitter this offseason. Martinez had a career season in a walk year, something that isn’t likely to be replicated. If the Sox can get him around $150 million, then it is time to talk
If the Red Sox can’t trade for Stanton or sign Martinez, which free agent would be the best fit – Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Jay Bruce?
Sean: Hosmer is the best hitter and brings Gold Glove defense at first base, but he’ll be the most expensive of this trio and doesn’t solve Boston’s power issues. Moustakas hit the most home runs in the group with 38, but considering his previous career high was only 22, I wouldn’t bank on a repeat performance. Bruce should be the cheapest option. While he has his flaws, he also has five seasons with 30+ homers on his resume. If adding power is the goal then Bruce is the safest of these options.
Rick: Eric Hosmer has always been a personal favorite with good mid-range home run power, high average, excellent glove and respectable leadership skills. Hosmer owns a .265 career average against lefties and .354 at Fenway. Both are attractive numbers for a player who is now in his prime. I would take Hosmer over Martinez even with similar salaries based on defense.
Josh: Should Boston miss out on Stanton or Martinez, their next call should be to Eric Hosmer. While he offers slightly less power than Jay Bruce, he makes up for it with his vastly superior batting average and OPS. The Red Sox need power, but they also should avoid players who bring little else to the plate. Hosmer brings those same advantages when compared to Mike Moustakas. Moose doesn’t strike out as often as Hosmer, but he doesn’t hit for the average that Hosmer does and has never reached 90 RBI, which Hosmer has managed three times. If we ignore everything else and look strictly at WAR, Hosmer takes the cake.
Jake: None of the above. It’s Carlos Santana, former Indians first baseman. He’s one of the most consistent hitters in the game, never dropping below 18 home runs, 88 walks, a .351 OPS and a 102 OPS+ since he broke in as a regular in 2011. A first baseman that can hit home runs and get on base? Sign me up.
Bryson: Jay Bruce would be an easy pick for me if the Red Sox miss out on Stanton and Martinez. The batting average is not impressive, but when looking at this Red Sox team, it is not the dip in batting average that scares me. It is the dip in power. Bruce could provide an instant jolt in power. He would also bring it at a cheaper price than Moustakas and Hosmer. Bruce should be the first call Dave Dombrowski should make if he strikes out on Stanton and Martinez.
Which under-the-radar bat should the Red Sox pursue – Logan Morrison, Lucas Duda, Todd Frazier, Yonder Alonso?
Sean: Logan Morrison has the most upside of the group, yet the Red Sox would be banking on his breakout season not being a fluke. Prior to this year he never hit more than 22 homers or had an OPS above .800 in a full season. Todd Frazier is too frustrating to watch everyday and would drive Red Sox fans nuts. Yonder Alonso’s second-half fade after being traded to Seattle suggests his All-Star first half was a mirage. Lucas Duda could be a cheap path to 30 homers. He should be in a platoon role to avoid lefties, but would provide plenty of pop when he’s in the lineup. If the Red Sox want to swing for the fences, take the risk on Morrison’s upside. Otherwise, go cheap with Duda and pair him with another move for a bigger bat. If Duda is the best Boston can add then this winter is a bust.
Rick: Duda has a bit more career consistency that Alonso and Morrison, who both had what amounts to surprise years. I cannot get that impressed with Frazier, who hits a bundle of home runs, strikes out too much and has a low average. Frazier would have to play first base where he has spent little time so the infield corners could be risky with Frazier and Devers. Plus, Bogaerts is probably just average defensively. Pitchers will be on suicide watch with that defense.
Josh: I have never been a fan of Todd Frazier. He has always offered too little outside of power, and has always struck out far too often. That didn’t change after he arrived in New York, despite the relative success he enjoyed with the team. He may be a great clubhouse guy, but I’d prefer to see the Sox look at other options for their next bat. Yonder Alonso would be a solid, cheap option. He’s a career .268 guy, which isn’t awful, and demonstrated last season that he has 30-homer power. By signing him, the Red Sox would be gambling on 2017 not being a fluke, but it shouldn’t be too costly if it doesn’t pan out.
Jake: I would lean toward Logan Morrison here, although none come without their risks. Luckily, with the power market being so over-saturated, none of these options will likely cost all that much. Home runs are cheap nowadays, and adding Morrison and his breakout 38 homers would go a long way toward helping the lineup. He’s only 29, and while his second-half “slump” was concerning, he still posted a .800+ OPS in each of the last two months. AKA, better than Mitch Moreland.
Bryson: Logan Morrison would be a good one for the Red Sox to chase. Throw out the 150 strikeouts, he was a pretty good power hitter for the Rays this year. I do not think he is a perennial 30+ home run hitter, but that is why he is in the bargain bin. His 3.6 WAR was the highest of his career, and he may not replicate that value, but the Red Sox are not looking for an all-world player in Morrison. This would be a nice little gamble for the Sox.
Which player is your favorite non-Stanton trade target?
Sean: Perhaps the Marlin that the Red Sox should be trying to reel in is Marcell Ozuna. He doesn’t have Stanton’s mammoth power but his 37 home runs are appealing enough. He also doesn’t have Stanton’s albatross contract attached to him. Ozuna is projected to earn a modest $10.9 million in arbitration next season and won’t hit free agency until 2020. See if the Marlins can be sold on Jackie Bradley, Michael Chavis and a couple of mid-level prospects. Moving Benintendi to center field would be a downgrade defensively but adding Ozuna’s Gold Glove in left helps offset those concerns and the increase in production at the plate more than makes up for it.
Rick: This is an easy one for me and that is Paul Goldschmidt of Arizona. Just two more seasons and he will be a free agent and has everything Boston needs at any position. A right-handed power bat who hits for power, average, and drives in runs. An exceptional defender who is capable of stealing 25+ bases.
Josh: I’m particularly fond of the image of Brian Dozier in a Red Sox uniform. Dozier is four years younger than Dustin Pedroia, and brings power that the Red Sox stalwart can’t offer. I love Pedey as much as any Red Sox fan, and I believe he should retire with Boston. Yet, while his defense remains as great as ever and his grit can’t be questioned. his offense has taken a sharp downturn as injuries have plagued him over the past few seasons. Dozier could be Pedroia’s heir. Minnesota was a surprising contender last season with Paul Molitor at the helm and surely aspires to be so again in 2018. Dozier wouldn’t be cheap, but he fills a couple needs for the Red Sox. This is one trade Dave Dombrowski should push for.
Jake: This one is a thinker, because given the lack of farm system depth, I think free agency is the definitive way to go this offseason for roster improvement. If the Red Sox do swing a trade, I would like it to be a relatively minor one so that the top guys remain in the minor league. Jerry Blevins would be a solid get for the bullpen, as a lefty reliever who can post elite strikeout numbers (69 in 49.0 innings) and rely on a sinker to induce ground balls to escape a jam. In this way, he’s a little bit like a lefty Carson Smith.
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Bryson: This is a no-brainer. It’s Marcell Ozuna. I wrote earlier about how the Red Sox should pursue him as much as Stanton. I also got to watch him play in the minors when he played in North Carolina, and he has been a favorite of mine since. He is a power threat as a right-hander with the Monster in play. He has had a 4+ WAR in two of his five seasons with a cruddy Marlins team. He is under club control for a couple more years also. He would not take as much as Stanton to get, and can provide similar production, and is more durable. He would be an instant fix for the Red Sox.