Four Risk/Reward Free Agents for the Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox attention is on the high profile free agents, but a second level exists that could fill some roster holes. Here is a select four.
The hunting season has started where I live, and ducks and deer are targets, but in baseball, the hunting season has also started. The free agent hunt will be on and what the primary focus will be is the top of the line possibilities.
As a Red Sox fan, I would love to see J.D. Martinez come in and be the designated hitter. First base? Sayonara to Mitch Moreland and put out the red carpet for Eric Hosmer. Get me Wade Davis for another bullpen arm and while I am in a largess mood how about Jake Arrieta. Then I wake up.
The Red Sox do have a budget and they do have the highest ticket prices in the baseball universe. Their free agent hunt will not be one of just grabbing player after payroll while tossing the budget to the wind. Won’t happen. But there is another layer to the madness and that is where you take a chance, but with far less financial exposure.
Players have been refused. Tossed aside when their option was not exercised. Others are simply released. Among this baseball flotsam, Boston may find a player who can fill a need. Here are a few notables.
When the 2018 season starts up a birthday celebrated will take place in April as Andre Ethier will be 36-years-old. The chances of Ethier having a birthday cake in a major league clubhouse are – and I am being generous – about in the 50/50 range. A fourth outfield and bat off the bench possibility.
Ethier had an option and the Dodgers to the surprise of no one chose to decline to pay Ethier $17.5 Million to roost on the bench or the disabled list. In the last two seasons, Ethier has appeared in a total of just 38 MLB games and was on the end run of a five-year $85 Million deal.
Spring training of 2016 and 2017 simply destroyed both seasons for the left-handed hitter. In 2016 it was a fractured tibia and in 2017 a herniated disc. At an advanced baseball age, this is not a sign that would instill any great confidence in signing. Is Ethier worth a look?
My first reaction when I see Ethier is the Grady Sizemore fiasco of 2014. A talented outfielder whose career was crushed by injuries. Ethier is most certainly talented, but that was a few years in the rear-view mirror for the lifetime .285 hitter. If you want power, then Ethier has that with seven seasons of 30+ doubles and four seasons of 20+ home runs.
What must be questioned is defense. Ethier once won a Gold Glove for right field in 2011, but the 7.5 UZR/150 is certainly not in Mookie Betts range. For his career in RF Ethier is -5.6 UZR/150. For his two-other outfield slots, the UZR is also in the negative range. What the Red Sox do have is versatility in the outfield as all three outfielders can play in the middle. Chris Young certainly was no defensive wizard in 2017.
You get Ethier for his bat. Late inning punch off the bench, occasional DH and to plug an outfield hole if someone goes down for a few weeks. The classic description that was supposed to be Young’s forte in 2017 and was not. The issue is if that punch is still there or is Ethier swinging a feather duster.
The Cardinals have sent Trevor Rosenthal into the talent pool after handing him or his agent Rosenthal’s release. Now, why give up on a pitcher who is just 27-years-old and throws absolute bullets. In 2017 Rosenthal had a Craig Kimbrel like 14.3 BB/9 in 50 games. The key is for 2018 those bullets will be powder puffs since Rosenthal underwent TJ Surgery and may not see the mound in 2018.
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This is the risk/reward or let’s really take a chance at its very best. A right-handed flame thrower who averaged 98.4 (V) on his fastball that was a slight tick from being the fastest in the National League. Twice in his career, Rosenthal had exceeded 40 saves, so he can be a formidable bullpen piece.
The downside in Rosenthal’s pitching history is walks – isn’t it always? Last season a 3.8 BB/9 and a career 4.0 BB/9. In 2016 this cost Rosenthal his role as closer to a season in which his 6.5 BB/9 made Henry Owens look like a control expert.
Rosenthal also does Rick Porcello when it comes to gifting hitters with long balls since Rosenthal has a 0.5 HR/9 for his career and a GB% that is above 50. Not bad. So, what happens?
Rosenthal will be offered a contract somewhere and it will be one that will give Rosenthal and his new team some leverage. The 2018 season may be one of rehabilitation with a focus on a late-season sample on the mound. Will be Red Sox pay for someone to sit? Well, the Pablo Sandoval situation answers unproductive money.
This is also with an eye on the current bullpen ace – Kimbrel. Kimbrel will be a free agent after 2018 and maybe Rosenthal could represent an option to a long-term deal for Kimbrel.
When I looked at the player profile for lefty Boone Logan I was surprised he was only 33-years-old. In my mind, Logan has seemed to be around for decades, but being a situational left-hander is a cottage industry in baseball. Logan was dumped by the Indians after a less than spectacular 2017 season.
Logan appeared in 38 games for the Indians and hurled 21 innings. For a situational lefty that is no surprise to one or two batters and done routine. With the Yankees in 2012, Logan led the American League in appearances (80) yet tossed just 55.1 innings.
In 2017 Logan had some minor health issues that limited his appearances and – hopefully – were responsible for a 4.71 ERA and a dismal .353 BABIP. Logan also is a two-pitch pitcher with a fastball at about 40% of the time and a slider the remaining. Logan’s fastball usually ticks in at the low 90s.
For his career lefties have hit just .229 against Logan and right-handers .286. Logan also has a rather disappointing career 3.8 BB/9, but a 9.7 K/9 as lefties try to hit that slider. So, what you have would be an upgrade over what the Red Sox currently have. Fernando Abad appears gone and Robby Scott had elbow surgery. The cupboard is thin in the left-handed relief department.
I would hope the Red Sox will invest in Jake McGee, but the team has little on the internal horizon to alleviate the lefty situation. Does anyone get excited about Robbie Ross? Or Roenis Elias?
Leadership was mentioned as a significant issue in the Red Sox falling short in 2017 and that means leadership on the field and in the clubhouse. New manager Alex Cora certainly knows the importance of having a veteran skilled in clubhouse diplomacy and having some ability on the field to compliment it. That means Curtis Granderson.
Granderson has awards for being skilled off the field for recognizing his community outreach. Former Commissioner Bud Selig honored Granderson for his international ambassador role for baseball. His endorsement money goes to inner-city baseball programs and his financial generosity is legendary. As solid citizens go on the diamond and off the diamond Granderson is in the top tier, but can he still play?
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The results of 2017 say the end may have been reached as Grandy Man hit just .212 between the Mets and Dodgers. What does catch your attention is to very attractive baseball numbers 26 and 64 – as in 26 home runs and 64 RBI. The left-hand bat of Granderson can still generate power.
Granderson will be 37-years-old when the season starts in 2018 so age is creeping up. Last season Granderson – never Gold Glove material – played all three outfield positions with a combined 0.0 UZR/150. For 2017 Granderson did have a respectable 2.1 fWAR and what it will come down to is the combination of money and opportunity for Granderson wants another year in the bigs.
The Red Sox paid Young $6.5 Million and can certainly make a similar offer to Granderson or higher. Then there is the opportunity and that has two prongs with the first being playing time and the second being his leadership.
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Granderson can still play the field, but the AL has the DH and that could be a rather attractive enticement to the veteran. Off the bench, his bat would be a plus in late-game situations – a failing for Young in 2017.