Red Sox: What would it take to trade for Giancarlo Stanton?
It may not take the massive haul fans might expect for the Boston Red Sox to pry Giancarlo Stanton away from the Miami Marlins.
The headline story this weekend will undoubtedly be thew news that the Boston Red Sox have had preliminary discussions with the Miami Marlins about superstar slugger Giancarlo Stanton.
The interest from the Red Sox perspective is obvious. The team that finished last in the American League in home runs this year goes out and gets the guy who led the majors with 59 homers. It’s an obvious solution for the team’s most glaring weakness. Stanton and the Red Sox are a perfect match. Now the only question is how much it would take to acquire him from Miami.
Not as much as you might expect.
The Marlins are under a new ownership group intent on slashing payroll and rebuilding the team in their own image. The plan is unfeasible unless they manage to trade the contract clogging up a massive portion of their payroll. That would be Stanton’s mega-deal that owes him at least $285 million through 2027.
When the news broke that the Red Sox were talking to the Marlins about Stanton, some fans started to freak out about the massive haul they would need to give up to pry the four-time All-Star out of Miami. We desperately want Stanton but not if it’s going to cost a package highlighted by Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, plus whatever is left of the depleted farm system.
Relax, it won’t take nearly that much to trade for Stanton. Boston won’t need to surrender any of those top young talents, let alone all of them.
This is a salary dump for a Marlins team that knows they can’t afford to keep Stanton. The longer they hold on to him the less valuable he becomes, making it imperative that they move him this winter. As long as a team is willing to take on most, if not all, of Stanton’s remaining contract, Miami can’t possibly expect anywhere near an equal return in talent.
That’s not to suggest that Miami will simply give him away. They will want major league-ready, cost controlled talent, which the Red Sox can offer without coughing up their best assets.
A realistic offer would start with Eduardo Rodriguez, who should have some appeal for a Marlins team that needs a young pitcher to build around. The 24-year old may not be an ace, but he still has untapped potential that we’ve seen flashes of during his time in Boston. He still projects to be at least a strong middle of the rotation arm with upside for more.
The Marlins may also be interested in Jackie Bradley to fill Stanton’s spot in the outfield. While he can’t replace Stanton’s offense, he would provide a dramatic improvement to the Marlins defense. Christian Yelich is a good defensive player who declined statistically once moved to center field full time this year. Bradley would give them an elite glove to patrol center while allowing Yelich to slide over to a corner outfield spot where he’ll provide better value.
A package revolving around E-Rod or JBJ would be a good starting point. Miami may insist on both, which wouldn’t be a deal-breaker. Pair them together and fill in a low-level prospect or two and it could be enough to satisfy the Marlins.
As much of a burden as Stanton’s contract would be for most teams, adding his $25 million salary next season would partially be offset by the outgoing salary they sent to Miami. If both Rodriguez and Bradley were included in the deal, that’s approximately $9 million in arbitration salary the Red Sox won’t need to pay.
While Stanton’s salary does gradually increase over the next few years, it won’t escalate as rapidly as the arbitration salaries for the players they give up, let alone what it would cost to keep them when they reach free agency.
Could the Red Sox convince Miami to take Hanley Ramirez off their hands? Wiping his $22 million salary off the books would certainly ease the burden of adding Stanton for next season. The Marlins would be reluctant to pay his remaining contract, but it’s still cheaper than what they owe Stanton and has only one guaranteed year left.
While some teams may require the Marlins to eat a portion of Stanton’s salary, Boston could offer to take on the entire contract as long as they can dump Ramirez on them in return. At least Miami gets a useful player back instead of dead money on their payroll. Nostalgic fans may welcome the return of Ramirez to South Beach, where he spent the first seven seasons of his big league career.
We’ve heard that the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants are expected to be strong suitors for Stanton. Their involvement certainly has the potential to drive up the price, but just because those teams want Stanton doesn’t mean he is interested in them. While he’s not a free agent, he might as well be given his contract includes a full no-trade clause. This gives Stanton some leverage to steer himself toward his preferred destination.
While we don’t know if Stanton has a preference at this point, the belief is that he would prioritize a team on either coast ahead of the Midwest, according to a report from Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. That would suggest that Boston has an advantage over St. Louis.
We also know that Stanton wants to play for a contender. He’s not agreeing to a trade that ships him from one rebuilding team to another. The Giants have had success in recent years but are coming off a last-place finish in 2017. They may not consider themselves in a rebuilding phase, but even with Stanton in their lineup they aren’t contenders in a loaded NL West.
Also factor in that Stanton can opt out of his contract after the 2020 season if he thinks he can secure an even more lucrative deal by then. If his chances of cashing in hinge on his home run totals then why would he agree to a trade sending him to one of the game’s most pitcher-friendly parks where his power would be suppressed? The Giants scored the second fewest runs in the majors this year, so joining a weak lineup would also hinder his RBI chances.
If Stanton’s goal is to join a contender while playing in an environment conducive to posting outstanding offensive production, Boston is easily the best fit among this trio of suitors. If he tells the Marlins that he wants to be traded to the Red Sox, that no-trade clause can be leveraged to make it happen. In that case, it may not matter if other teams can put together a better package.
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Sending Stanton to Boston makes sense from every angle. It’s all starting to line up for the Red Sox. Now we just have to wait to see if Miami agrees.