ZiPS’ projected value: Three years, $51.5 million (A.A.V.: $17.16M)
Logan Morrison is coming off a career year in which he blasted 38 homers to go along with a solid .246/.353/.516 slash line. He offers a comparable power ceiling to anyone on this list without as much risk of a batting average that will flirt with the Mendoza Line.
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The concern with Morrison is sample size. He’s never come close to a year like this before, topping out at 23 homers and a .797 OPS in 2011 as his previous career highs in a full season. A 30-year old putting up a career season in a contract year should flash warning signs.
Despite that risk, it’s hard not to view Morrison as an upgrade to this lineup. His .868 OPS this season would have easily led the Red Sox among hitters who appeared in at least 40 games with the team.
Morrison has also spent the bulk of his career as a part-time player, which has held down his counting stats. He played in a career-high 149 games this year and received 90 more plate appearances than he has in any other season. A steady role with more playing time can partially be attributed to his increase in home runs and RBI.
The contract ZiPS projects would pay him at a rate worthy of a hitter who will continue to rake as Morrison did in 2017. He can remain a valuable asset with some regression, but if he returns to his previous career rates then he would be considered a bust. Targeting Morrison boils down to whether the team believes in his breakout season or if they expect it was a mirage.