Red Sox: Five affordable power bats to target in free agency
The Boston Red Sox have a glaring need for power in their lineup but won’t necessarily need to break the bank to find a home run hitter.
The top priority for the Boston Red Sox this winter will be finding a power bat to anchor their lineup. While this year’s free agency class includes a number of high-profile sluggers who would fill that need, there are plenty of options in the bargain bin who could give this lineup the punch it needs.
Baseball finds itself in an era where home run totals are skyrocketing at a record pace. Every team seems to be mashing homers these days – well, every team except the Red Sox. This means that power can be found cheaper than it would have been on the free agent market in the past.
The top talents will still get paid a boatload, yet bargains can still be found from players that carry flaws in other aspects of their game. The Red Sox have guys who can get on base, play solid defense and have speed on the bases. What they need is a home run hitter, which doesn’t necessarily need to come from one of the top stars on the market.
Red Sox ownership has expressed their willingness to go over the luxury tax in 2018 but that doesn’t mean they need to blow by it. Some fiscal restraint may be in order given the young core they will eventually need to lock up. While a superstar such as J.D. Martinez may demand a long-term deal worth around $200 million, it may behoove the Red Sox to focus on cheaper options that will come off the books before 2021 when it’s time to pay Mookie Betts.
Let’s explore some under-the-radar free agent bats who could fill Boston’s desperate need for power. Using ZiPS projections provided by ESPN to project what free agents should be worth on a performance-to-dollar basis, we’re going to focus on power hitters who potentially could be obtained on deals no longer than three years that average less than $20 million per season.
Lucas Duda
ZiPS’ projected value: Two years, $30 million (A.A.V.: $15M)
Lucas Duda certainly doesn’t carry the traits the Red Sox generally value. His .217 batting average and a 27.5 K% that borders on horrific would normally have convinced them to move on quickly, but perhaps it’s time to reevaluate in today’s changing landscape. Strikeouts and plummeting batting averages aren’t as taboo as they once were, so long as they are offset by a few extra home runs a healthy amount of walks.
Those are two abilities that Duda has a knack for. The 31-year old swatted 30 homers for the second time in the last three years and has averaged 29 since 2014. He also posted a 12.2 BB% that ranked 30th in the majors (minimum 450 plate appearances).
The Red Sox are in need of a first baseman with Mitch Moreland hitting free agency and Hanley Ramirez potentially being left in the designated hitter role he prefers. While Duda’s abysmal batting average will keep his price tag in check, his .242 career average is about the same as what Boston got out of Moreland this year, only Duda comes with a higher power ceiling. He doesn’t have the elite glove that Moreland provides but Duda is at least serviceable at first base and capable of playing the outfield.
Duda carries wide platoon splits with a career .218 average against left-handed pitching. While that limits his value, Boston could get the most out of him by using Ramirez at first base against lefties to avoid exposing Duda. Reducing his playing time could prevent Duda from reaching that 30-homer mark, but it would improve his overall production on a per game basis and give the Red Sox some extra pop against right-handers.
Boston got tremendous value out of a 1-year, $5.5 million deal with Moreland in 2017, but the veteran first baseman will likely be seeking a longer, more lucrative deal. Signing Duda would be similar to the Moreland deal in that it’s short-term and relatively inexpensive compared to other options. The $15 million AAV projected by ZiPS may even be a bit high given the alternative options Duda will compete with for a contract in free agency. A two-year, $20 million deal might do it for Duda.
Todd Frazier
ZiPS’ projected value: Three years, $47.4 million (A.A.V.: $15.8M)
Remember when Red Sox fans were disappointed that the rival New York Yankees scooped Todd Frazier out from under their noses with a mid-season trade? That was before the emergence of Rafael Devers solved their third base riddle, so ultimately it worked out for Boston to hold off on pulling the trigger on a deal with the Chicago White Sox.
Now Frazier is a free agent, so all it will take is money to bring him to Boston. Frazier is a better defensive third baseman than Devers, so pushing the 21-year old to first base or DH would improve the infield defense. Frazier could also play first or DH if they Red Sox are sold on Devers improving at the hot corner – or at least aren’t prepared to give up on the idea yet.
Frazier carries significant risk in the batting average department coming off a season in which he hit a career-low .213 in time split between Chicago and New York. However, he has the highest power ceiling on this list. He hit 27 home runs this year and is only one season removed from a 40-homer campaign.
He also ranked sixth in the majors with a 14.4 BB% to help mitigate the downside of his low average. As cringe-worthy as his average appears, his solid .344 OBP would have tied Betts for second among qualified hitters on the Red Sox.
Frazier is the type of hitter who would undoubtedly frustrate Red Sox fans but their need for the long ball may make those inconsistencies a necessary evil. The projected price isn’t unreasonable so long as it remains short-term.
Logan Morrison
ZiPS’ projected value: Three years, $51.5 million (A.A.V.: $17.16M)
Logan Morrison is coming off a career year in which he blasted 38 homers to go along with a solid .246/.353/.516 slash line. He offers a comparable power ceiling to anyone on this list without as much risk of a batting average that will flirt with the Mendoza Line.
More from Red Sox News
- Red Sox Nation deserves far more from Fenway Sports Group
- Bizarre trade deadline comes back to haunt Red Sox after Nathan Eovaldi departure
- Red Sox’ Moneyball-style offseason continues with Corey Kluber contract
- Rich Hill’s Red Sox departure puts him within striking distance of unique MLB record
- Red Sox offseason takes another nasty hit with Nathan Eovaldi departure
The concern with Morrison is sample size. He’s never come close to a year like this before, topping out at 23 homers and a .797 OPS in 2011 as his previous career highs in a full season. A 30-year old putting up a career season in a contract year should flash warning signs.
Despite that risk, it’s hard not to view Morrison as an upgrade to this lineup. His .868 OPS this season would have easily led the Red Sox among hitters who appeared in at least 40 games with the team.
Morrison has also spent the bulk of his career as a part-time player, which has held down his counting stats. He played in a career-high 149 games this year and received 90 more plate appearances than he has in any other season. A steady role with more playing time can partially be attributed to his increase in home runs and RBI.
The contract ZiPS projects would pay him at a rate worthy of a hitter who will continue to rake as Morrison did in 2017. He can remain a valuable asset with some regression, but if he returns to his previous career rates then he would be considered a bust. Targeting Morrison boils down to whether the team believes in his breakout season or if they expect it was a mirage.
Yonder Alonso
ZiPS’ projected value: Three years, $52.9 million (A.A.V.: $17.63M)
Would the real Yonder Alonso please stand up?
The 30-year old raced out to a stellar start in 2017 to earn his first All-Star nod. He hit .266 with a .896 OPS and 22 home runs over 100 games with the Oakland A’s. That allowed the rebuilding A’s to cash in on the impending free agent by shipping him to the Seattle Mariners before the trade deadline.
More from Red Sox News
- Red Sox Nation deserves far more from Fenway Sports Group
- Bizarre trade deadline comes back to haunt Red Sox after Nathan Eovaldi departure
- Red Sox’ Moneyball-style offseason continues with Corey Kluber contract
- Rich Hill’s Red Sox departure puts him within striking distance of unique MLB record
- Red Sox offseason takes another nasty hit with Nathan Eovaldi departure
His brief stint in Seattle turned out to be a massive disappointment for a Mariners team hoping Alonso would help push them into a playoff spot. His OPS fell over 100 points and he hit only six home runs in 42 games. His average and OBP remained relatively equal, it was his power that mysteriously disappeared.
Power is what the Red Sox are after, so if Alonso can’t provide it then he’s not an option. The 28 home runs he hit between Oakland and Seattle are appealing but only if he hits at the pace he was on during the first half. Considering he hit his previous career-high of seven home runs in 156 games with Oakland in 2016, that seems doubtful.
If the Red Sox knew they were getting the All-Star they saw in the first half with Oakland, the contract ZiPS projects would be a bargain. If what we saw in Seattle is the real Alonso, he’s no improvement over Boston’s internal options.
Jay Bruce
ZiPS’ projected value: Three years, $53.3 million (A.A.V.: $17.76M)
Jay Bruce is a three-time All-Star with five 30+ homer campaigns on his resume, culminating in a career-high 36 home runs in 2017. So why is he in the bargain bin?
He certainly doesn’t believe he should be, given that he’s rumored to be seeking a five-year deal in the range of $80-90 million. He’s unlikely to get that in this market, yet the average annual value remains in line with what ZiPS projects. If he ends up settling for a three-year deal then this projection could prove accurate.
Bruce falls short of the elite class of free agent hitters this year due mostly to his tendency to be a streaky hitter. He struggles against left-handed pitching, owning a career .226 average and .712 OPS against southpaws. Teams aren’t going to pay top dollar for a hitter who should be in a platoon role.
The Mets tried to trade Bruce last winter but couldn’t find any takers. They ended up settling for a mid-season deal that sent him to Cleveland for a relief pitcher toiling away in the low-level minor leagues. That should give us some insight into the market for Bruce, who won’t command the mega-bucks that J.D. Martinez or Eric Hosmer will.
Next: Fringe position players for 2018 roster
Boston may still target the top-tier bats on the free agent or trade market but if they strike out on those options then Bruce may be their best fallback. He’s a virtual lock to provide the power numbers they seek with less downside than the other options on this list. He’ll be a bit more expensive, but shouldn’t cost nearly as much as the top targets.