Red Sox Free Agency Rumors: J.D. Martinez seeking $200 million deal
J.D. Martinez is expected to be a free agent target for the Boston Red Sox as the top bat on the market but his price tag may lead them to pass.
We should have known from the moment J.D. Martinez switched agents. Once the top free agent on the market tied himself to Scott Boras the news was bound to be followed by reports of staggering contract demands. As much as the Boston Red Sox could use a bat like Martinez to anchor their lineup, at what point are they forced to walk away from the negotiating table?
If the latest reports are to be believed, Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox front office may not even take a seat at that table.
ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that teams who have reached out regarding Martinez have been given the impression he is seeking a deal in the neighborhood of $200 million.
Teams that have reached out early on J.D. Martinez have gotten the impression Scott Boras is looking for something in the $200 million range.
— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) November 8, 2017
That’s a head-spinning amount of money that would exclude most teams from even considering Martinez as a free agent target. Does that include the Red Sox?
They could certainly use him given their need for power following a season in which they were last in the American League in home runs. Martinez is coming off a monster year in which he hit .303 with a 1.066 and 45 home runs in time split between the Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks.
If Boston wants to add a power threat this winter without giving up both a boatload of money and assets (looking at you, Giancarlo Stanton), Martinez is their best bet.
While the report doesn’t specify the length of the deal, we can speculate that it would be in the seven or eight-year range.
An 8-year, $200 million deal would pay Martinez an average of $25 million a year, which may not be all that unreasonable for a slugger of his caliber. The issue is whether the 30-year old with a spotty injury history will hold up for a long-term deal. This massive contract would carry significant risk for a player who would be 37 years old entering the final year of the deal.
A seven-year deal at the same price tag presents less risk on the back end, although it’s offset by a less palatable average annual value of over $28.5 million. Is it worth paying a little extra per season to get out of the deal a year earlier when Martinez is in decline?
The Red Sox are already loaded in the outfield with arguably the best defensive trio in baseball. Signing Martinez wouldn’t be done with the intention of adding another outfielder so much as it would be about adding his home run power. Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi certainly aren’t going anywhere.
There have been whispers that Jackie Bradley could become expendable in the quest to add a bat. Benny would make a capable center fielder and Martinez has played left field in the past, yet the free agent slugger is a below-average defender in any outfield spot. As much as the Red Sox could use his power in the lineup, the overall upgrade to the outfield may not be as drastic as you might think when accounting for the drastic defensive drop-off at two positions.
Ideally, the Red Sox would convince Martinez to become their primary designated hitter – if not next season then at least later in the deal after Hanley Ramirez‘ contract runs out.
The problem with that is it could mean paying at least $25 million per year for a player who adds no defensive value. As impressive as his production at the plate was, the negative value Martinez provided on defense left him with a 5.2 WAR, which tied for 27th in the majors. That’s still All-Star caliber value, but not quite MVP level. His WAR tied him with New York Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner, who needless to say wouldn’t make $200 million on the open market.
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This is the danger of being enamored with home run totals in an era where every team – except for the Red Sox – is seeing a historic rise in power numbers. We all dig the long ball but there are other ways to value a payer.
Martinez would be an immediate solution to Boston’s most glaring issue but if they can only count on him to DH then they are essentially guaranteeing that he’ll never meet value on his contract. There’s a reason why David Ortiz – the greatest DH to ever play the game – never made more than $16 million per season. Are the Red Sox really going to pay someone else nearly double that to fill the same role?
That being said, most teams will have some of the same concerns. Just because his agent claims he’s asking for $200 million, doesn’t mean Martinez will get it. It all depends on how many teams have money to spend on a big bat.
The Diamondbacks remain a threat to retain Martinez after his torrid second half following his mid-season acquisition helped lead Arizona to the postseason. Boras is already putting pressure on the team’s ownership to pay up for his client, telling the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro that they essentially have to pay him at this point.
“You don’t sign [Zack] Greinke and not sign this guy,” Boras said. “I mean, once you drop in the pool, you’re in the water. Once you’re in the water, it’s kind of hard to say you’re not wet. It sends a message to the fan base about being competitive – all the things we talk about as a player.”
It’s the typical hard-sell from Boras that we’ve come to expect from the super-agent but that doesn’t mean it won’t work. Arizona’s run to the postseason ignited the fanbase and letting Martinez walk would certainly be a step back.
On the other hand, their wallets may not be as deep as Red Sox owner John Henry’s, so Boston could win a bidding war if they desperately want to.
A National League team like the Diamondbacks also can’t rely on the DH role to preserve an aging player with poor defensive skills, which may make them more hesitant to hand Martinez a long-term deal.
As for the AL contenders, who would pay up? The Yankees outfield is full and they remain intent to duck the luxury tax for at least next season. Cleveland may not be willing to pay Jay Bruce to stay, let alone pay potentially twice as much to add Martinez. The World Champion Astros aren’t in a position where they need to spend on the top free agent.
While Martinez is the best bat on the market, he’s hardly the only appealing option. Bruce, Eric Hosmer, and Mike Moustakas are among the other top options. Carlos Gonzalez, Carlos Gomez, and Jose Bautista are cheaper options who can be found on the market. That’s without even considering the potential trade targets out there.
If the supply outweighs the demand then the market could cool on Martinez, lowering the price well below his lofty expectations. If that happens, he becomes much more appealing to the Red Sox.
Boston has a long history with Boras, who currently represents Bradley and Xander Bogaerts, as well as several former Red Sox players. They should be familiar enough with his tactics to know when he’s bluffing to drive up the price and when he’s truly digging into his demands.
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The Red Sox will certainly have their eye on Martinez this winter, so long as the price remains somewhat reasonable. They may be willing to exceed the luxury tax this year but they still have their limits. It’s hard to see them ponying up $200 million but if Boras backs off those rumored demands then we could be seeing Martinez swatting home runs over the Green Monster next spring.