Red Sox: Free agency could provide solution to bullpen problems
This is the second part of a two-part series dissecting the Red Sox Bullpen and the problems within it. In this Part II, the depth and talent problem that was previously discussed is addressed.
The Boston Red Sox have a bullpen problem. That much we’ve already discussed.
Their lack of trustworthy arms in the bullpen led to David Price and Chris Sale being deployed at pivotal points in playoff games. They relied on borderline replacement-level relievers throughout the year. The left-handed relievers they did have were used primarily as lefty-specialists. Their biggest bullpen acquisitions of the last two years missed either all (Tyler Thornburg) or most (Carson Smith) of 2017. So, what can they do to fix this bullpen?
They’ve already gutted their farm system for pitching. Acquiring Sale cost them four prospects – two of them were top-20. Craig Kimbrel carried the same cost as Sale. Thornburg cost three prospects AND third baseman Travis Shaw. The cost for Drew Pomeranz was only one prospect, but it was their top-pitching prospect in Anderson Espinoza. The only real prospect capital Boston has left is third base prospect Michael Chavis and pitching prospect Jason Groome. So the avenue of trade is, for the most part, out of the question.
Luckily for the Red Sox, the 2017-18 free agent class – a class flush with high-end relievers – could serve as the solution.
All statistical references from here on out are according to the Baseball-Reference database.
HONORABLE MENTION: GREG HOLLAND
2017: 1.4 WAR, 41 Saves, 3.61 ERA, 57.1 IP, 11 K/9
Greg Holland served as the Colorado Rockies closer for 2017, and saw a return to form. His high strikeout rate and experience in the World Series make him an extremely interesting candidate for Boston.
The former Royal’s success this past season came as a surprise to many around the league due to Tommy John surgery he received in the fall of 2015. The surgery forced him to miss all of the 2015 playoffs, and Kansas City’s World Series championship. He was released by Kansas City, and missed all of 2016. This seemed to have no ill effect to Holland’s abilities as a hard throwing closer, as he was chosen to the NL All-Star team.
Unfortunately, however, he only makes it in as honorable mention. This is because of his career standing as a closer. He has a career 2.60 ERA and has accumulated 186 saves over his career. In case you didn’t know, Boston already has a really good closer in Kimbrel. Compound that with the fact that teams like the Cubs, Nationals and Brewers could sign him to fill their void at the closers role, and you see how Holland-to-Boston becomes less likely. However, if Holland would be willing to take a reduced role with the Red Sox he would be a fantastic fit.
WADE DAVIS
2017: 1.9 WAR, 32 Saves, 2.30 ERA, 58.2 IP, 12.1 K/9
Provided he is willing to cede the closer’s role, Wade Davis is the ideal choice. Davis’ reputation is that of a power house reliever since his time with Kansas City. His ability to pitch in the postseason (1.40 Postseason ERA) will make him a hot commodity this winter. He’s familiar with the American League and has World Series experience, making him a perfect fit to fill Boston’s need.
The former starter found his home in the bullpen later in his career, and his inning by inning splits show just that. In his career, Davis has pitched to a 1.99 ERA in the 7th-9th innings. However, this does not paint a full picture. The seventh inning has been unkind to Davis, as he has pitched to a 4.78 ERA in that frame. In 131 eighth innings pitched, however, Davis has accrued a 1.17 ERA, with a 3.45 Strikeout/Walk (SO/W) ratio. And as a closer, in 142.1 IP in the ninth, his ERA is 1.71, with a 3.41 SO/W ratio. That versatility is what separates Holland from Davis, making the latter more of a possibility for the Red Sox.
However, if Davis does want to continue to close, there are still options for Boston to explore.
JAKE MCGEE
2017: 1.4 WAR, 3 Saves, 3.61 ERA, 57.1 IP, 9.1 K/9
Speaking of options, the Colorado Rockies setup man just declined his player option, making him a free agent.
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As one of the few left-handed relievers on the open market, the Red Sox should be keeping a close eye on Jake McGee. The addition of McGee would add variance to a righty-heavy Boston bullpen that failed to find a consistent left-handed reliever for most of the season. McGee has shown the ability to get hitters on both sides of the plate out. He’s held lefties to a career .239 batting average, righties a .208.
McGee’s history in the AL East (he began his career in Tampa Bay) makes him the more appealing of the two LHP, especially considering his numbers with Tampa were significantly better than his numbers with Colorado. In his career as an AL reliever, McGee posted a 2.77 ERA over 259.2 IP, with a SO/W ratio of 11.1. If you contrast that with his numbers as a member of the Rockies, (4.11 ERA, 8.4 SO/W) you see a drastically different pitcher. The southpaw had a far better season last year than he did in 2016, managing to drop his ERA by a whole run, while raising his K/9 by a whole two points.
Adding McGee to the mix of Carson Smith and Craig Kimbrel could provide the 31-year-old reliever with the spark he needs to return to his AL form.
TONY WATSON
2017: 0.9 WAR, 10 Saves, 3.38 ERA, 66.2 IP, 7.2 K/9
Another left-handed reliever that the Red Sox should be monitoring is Tony Watson. The career National-Leaguer who split time with Pittsburgh and the Dodgers last season, found himself pitching quite a bit in the postseason. Watson found his way into 11 postseason games – five of them in the World Series – pitching to a 2.57 ERA.
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Watson, much like McGee, would add a full-inning, left-handed reliever to a bullpen that was desperately lacking such a pitcher. While he does not bring the same strikeout ceiling as McGee (Watson’s career K/9 is 7.9) he has shown the same ability to get both lefties and righties out. Left-handed hitters against Watson are held to a .216 opponents’ batting average, and righties to .226.
While Watson racked up 10 saves in 2017, he has shown far more comfort in the setup role in his career. In 228.2 8th innings pitched, Watson has a 2.56 ERA. The ninth inning is far less friendly, as in 79.2 IP there, his ERA jumps to 3.39. And that’s fine. Watson, like everybody else on this list, would not be coming to Boston with the expectation to close out games. His career comfort zone is, ideally, where the Red Sox would have him pitch.
PAT NESHEK
2017: 2.8 WAR, 1 Save, 1.59 ERA, 62.2 IP, 10 K/9
If the Rockies can’t re-sign any of their bullpen departures on this list, they’re in big trouble.
Pat Neshek is coming off of a year few saw coming. In time split between Philadelphia and Colorado, he posted a career-best strikeout-to-walk ratio (11.5 SO/W,) and 1.86 FIP, a career-low. He has enjoyed success against both righties and lefties, holding RHB’s to a .187 batting average against; LHB’s have a .236 career BA against Neshek.
The 37-year-old journeyman reliever has found far more success as a middle reliever than he has a setup man. His most comfortable inning is the seventh, sporting a career 1.83 ERA in 113 seventh innings pitched.
But is Neshek’s 2017 more of a deterrent than it is a reason to sign him?
His age, compounded with his stellar 2017 are the classic case of “regression waiting to happen.” Over the course of his career, he has only ever posted consecutive stellar seasons one: 2006 and 2007 in Minnesota. Outside of that Neshek has had an extremely turbulent career, following seasons like 2017 with ERAs in the threes or fours, and low strikeout numbers.
Next: Red Sox predicted to sign three top free agents
I’m not trying to imply that Neshek will have a complete falling off. I’m merely trying to say that if the Red Sox do end up signing Neshek, it would behoove them to pair him with another reliever, preferably one of a left-handed persuasion.