The MLB free agency period officially opens at 5 p.m. on Monday, allowing the Boston Red Sox to begin negotiations with any player on the market.
The search for the next prized free agent begins for the Boston Red Sox today.
While free agency technically started the day after the World Series ended, the first five days are known as a “quiet period” where teams can speak to free agents about their potential interest but can’t begin negotiating contract terms. That changes at 5 p.m. on Monday, November 6.
We are mere hours away from Dave Dombrowski being able to smooth talk his way into luring a big name free agent to Boston. The Red Sox president of baseball operations has already confirmed that he’s aiming to add another bat this offseason and there just so happens to be a number of appealing sluggers on the market.
Monday at 5 p.m. is also the deadline for teams to extend a qualifying offer to their own free agents. The qualifying offer equals the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players. The qualifying offer is set at $17.4 million this year. Players have 10 days to accept or decline the offer, setting the deadline for November 16 at 5 p.m. If they accept the offer then they will remain with the team on a one-year, $17.4 million contract.
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The Red Sox have four players eligible for a qualifying offer: Mitch Moreland, Blaine Boyer, Fernando Abad and Chris Young. None of them are expected to receive a qualifying offer and it would be somewhat surprising if any of them were back in Boston next year.
The exception could be Moreland, who presents an interesting dilemma. The veteran first baseman played well enough in his one season with the Red Sox to earn himself a multi-year deal, yet not quite well enough to warrant paying him $17.4 million next year. Boston seems intent on upgrading at the position and would be willing to move on if they can lure a free agent with a better bat. Eric Hosmer fits that description and is rumored to be a target of the Red Sox.
We can’t rule out the possibility that the Red Sox extend a qualifying offer to Moreland while secretly hoping he declines it. That way if another team signs him in free agency, Boston could receive a compensation draft pick next year.
Teams who sign free agents who declined a qualifying offer forfeit their second-highest pick in the next MLB Draft and have their international signing bonus pool for the next international signing period reduced by $500,000. The penalty is harsher for teams who exceeded the luxury tax in 2017. While other teams may be willing to give Moreland a multi-year deal, the penalty may result in a lukewarm market for the first baseman. This could allow Boston to swoop in and retain him at a bargain rate if they strikeout on their other free agent targets.
Free agents who were traded during the 2017 season are ineligible for a qualifying offer, preventing the Red Sox from extending one to Eduardo Nunez, Addison Reed or Rajai Davis. While they lose a bit of leverage without that option, Boston may still consider bringing them back. Nunez would be particularly appealing given how he sparked the lineup following his mid-season acquisition from the San Francisco Giants, as well as the team’s need to replace the injured Dustin Pedroia for at least he first two months of the season.
This rule pertaining to players traded during this past season could also work to Boston’s benefit. J.D. Martinez and Jay Bruce are a pair of home run hitters on their radar who are not eligible for a qualifying offer. While they will be more expensive, having no strings attached may make them more enticing compared to Hosmer or Mike Moustakas, both of whom will presumably be presented with a qualifying offer by the Kansas City Royals.
Dombrowski will have the opportunity to start negotiations with any of these top free agent hitters this afternoon, although we can’t necessarily expect a deal to happen right away. Those who received a qualifying offer may wait out the 10 day period before deciding. Even if they expect to decline the offer, there’s no rush for them to do so until they see how the market develops. Some of the second and third tier free agents will wait until the top players sign to set the market before entering into any serious contract talks.
Meanwhile, if Dombrowski isn’t making any progress with his top targets, perhaps he’ll wait out the market until the teams looking to spend money this winter have already spent it. If the supply ends up outweighing the demand then it potentially could allow the Red Sox to sign a useful bat at a better value.
Next: Top 5 free agent hitters
The process could drag on for months, or Dombrowski could wrap up his wish list before Thanksgiving. One way or another, expect the Red Sox to be involved in the free agent market. Which means that today at 5 p.m., things are about to heat up.