Projections mean nothing. I love to read the Baseball Prospectus on just what to expect the following season, but I consider it like astrology – fun to read but don’t take it seriously. The main culprits are the younger players since it is baseball nature to expect them to continue to trend upwards like a bullish stock market.
The poster boy for this in 2017 was Xander Bogaerts. Bogaerts was pirouetting from a 2017 Silver Slugger season with 21 home runs into what one would consider the next stage of his development – can you say 30 home runs? Was it a wrist injury or just a step back? Bogaerts was a bitter disappointment with both bat and glove.
Jackie Bradley didn’t win the Gold Glove and his chances of eventually securing that award are far greater than ever puncturing the .300 plateau with his average. Prodigious slumps followed by equally prodigious hot streaks. JBJ finished at .245 and at 27-years-old what you see is what you get.
Mookie Betts is the best player on the Red Sox and only a few are comparable or better in baseball, but 2017 was a disappointment. A .264 average is shoddy from what was expected and knowing the intensity of Betts he is probably disappointed.
The last is Andrew Benintendi who I had as a shoo-in for American League Rookie of the Year. Benintendi hit a respectable .271 with some decent power, but with his swing and speed – does he ever bunt? – I expected close to .300.
With the negative comes the positive and that is the surprising Rafael Devers. Devers finally got the call after a very quick rest stop in Pawtucket and showed surprising hitting ability. Devers will never be Brooks Robinson at third base, but he won’t be Butch Hobson. Trade him for Stanton? I would have to ponder that one.