Red Sox predicted by MLB Trade Rumors to sign three top free agents
MLB Trade Rumors predicts that the Boston Red Sox will sign three of the top 25 free agents on their top-50 list this winter.
MLB Trade Rumors has revealed their 12th annual Top 50 Free Agent list. Boston Red Sox fans should be quite pleased if these predictions come to fruition.
The website’s three-writer committee collaborated on predictions of where each of the top 50 free agents will land this offseason, along with the contract they expect those players to earn.
Boston enters the offseason with a wishlist highlighted by the need for a power hitter to anchor the middle of the lineup. After the Red Sox finished outside the top-10 in the league in OPS and dead last in home runs, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is intent on adding a bat for next season.
It just so happens that this free agent class has several appealing options who could bolster Boston’s lineup. MLB Trade Rumors pegs the Red Sox for winning the sweepstakes on one of the top names on the list, as well as making another under the radar signing to add more pop to the lineup.
They also predict the Red Sox will sign one of the top relievers on the market. If we’ve learned anything over the past few postseasons, you can never have too much relief pitching.
The list provided by MLBTR predicts Boston will end up with three of the top 25 free agents this winter. That may seem a bit ambitious but given the team’s needs, we can expect them to be involved in the discussions for these options.
J.D. Martinez – 6 years, $150 million
MLB Trade Rumors predicts that the Red Sox will land the top free agent hitter on their list.
Martinez is coming off a career year in which he hit .303/.376/.690 over 119 games split between the Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks. He fits the profile for what the Red Sox need as a middle-of-the-order slugger. Martinez smashed the third most home runs in the majors with 45 and his 1.066 OPS was second.
A mid-season trade to Arizona led to an offensive explosion for Martinez. He hit 29 of those 45 homers in only 62 games with the Diamondbacks.
As impressive as his second-half surge was, his power production in the desert may also be a reason to temper expectations. Arizona’s Chase Field ranked as the fourth best ballpark in the majors for home runs, according to MLB Park Factors. Fenway Park was near the bottom in that category. Martinez is going to hit no matter what park he plays in but we shouldn’t expect another 40+ homer season if he comes to Boston.
If Martinez can come anywhere near his previous career-high of 38 home runs he would still immediately become the best power threat in the Red Sox lineup. He may not put up MVP caliber numbers but he’s still an All-Star quality bat.
His defense, on the other hand, leaves a lot to be desired. Boston has arguably the best defensive trio of outfielders in baseball, leaving no room for a below-average defender like Martinez. He would need to be open to spending a significant portion of his playing time as the designated hitter.
$25 million per year is a lot to pay for a full-time DH. Although, when you consider the Red Sox have been paying Hanley Ramirez nearly as much to either DH or play below-average defense, maybe it doesn’t seem so bad.
The six-year deal is almost as concerning as the average annual value considering Martinez is 30 years old, but if he’s willing to DH most of the time then he should hold up.
Martinez can’t be offered a qualifying offer by the Diamondbacks since he was acquired mid-season, so signing him wouldn’t cost the Red Sox a draft pick. That’s an advantage that they wouldn’t get with signing most of their top targets, which may offset some of the concerns about the higher price.
Logan Morrison, three years, $36 million
Mitch Moreland did a solid job covering first base for the Red Sox in 2017. While the Red Sox may consider bringing him back, they will at least kick the tires on a potential upgrade. Given their need for power, Morrison fits the bill.
The 30-year old hit a career-high 38 home runs this year to go along with a .246/.353/.516 slash line. He provides a similar mediocre average to what Moreland provided, only with more walks and home runs.
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The concern with Morrison is whether or not his power production is a true breakout year or a flash in the pan. His previous career-high of 23 home runs came back in 2011 and he fell shy of 20 in every other season until this year. On the other hand, his playing time was sporadic in most of those previous seasons and he has spent his entire career in pitcher-friendly ballparks.
Morrison’s 2017 splits suggest he may be relegated to a platoon role, although his career splits are fairly even. Even if he does have to sit against some tough lefties, that’s no different than how the Red Sox deployed Moreland.
While he doesn’t bring the elite defensive prowess of Moreland at first base, Morrison’s glove is solid enough that his offensive upside outweighs any drop off in the field. For what it’s worth, MLBTR ranked Morrison as their No. 15 free agent, while Moreland was relegated to the honorable mentions section.
The contract they predict is more than double what the Red Sox paid Moreland this year, but the $12 million average annual value seems reasonable for a player of Morrison’s caliber.
Bryan Shaw, three years, $21 million
The Red Sox bullpen is led by the league’s top closer, yet questions remain about the bridge to get the ball to Craig Kimbrel.
Tyler Thornburg was acquired to serve as the 8th inning setup man, only to miss the entire season after undergoing surgery. He should be back next season but will he be the same pitcher right away? Carson Smith pitched well following his return but didn’t debut until September after missing over a year. Can he hold up for a full season? Joe Kelly‘s fastball can hit triple-digits, but is he the lights-out reliever we saw in the first half or the inconsistent one we saw following his return from his own stint on the disabled list?
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Addison Reed was acquired mid-season to fill the setup role. He’s now a free agent and may not return after a somewhat underwhelming performance in Boston. If he isn’t re-signed then the Red Sox may need to add another reliable late-inning arm.
That’s where Shaw could come in. The right-hander is as reliable as they come, leading the majors in pitching appearances in each of the last two seasons. Nobody has pitched in more games since 2013 than Shaw, who has never been on the DL.
Shaw’s 3.52 ERA in 2017 was the worst of his career, which is saying something considering it’s still pretty good. He won’t blow you away with the elite strikeout rate that Dombrowski typically desires, but his career 8.0 K/9 is above average. His career 3.0 BB/9 is a bit concerning but he lowered it in 2016 to his best rate since his rookie season.
The price tag is a bit steep for a middle reliever who may not be among the top three options in Boston’s bullpen. However, given the uncertainty among their current collection of setup options, Shaw’s durability and dependability would have value.
Shaw lands at No. 25 overall on this free agency list, sixth highest among relief pitchers. It puts him behind Reed (No. 16), who will be more expensive and likely will seek a new home where he can compete for the closer role. That would seem to make Shaw a better fit to replace Reed in Boston’s bullpen.
While the aforementioned trio are the only players MLBTR predicts will sign with the Red Sox, they do expect Boston to be involved with discussions on a number of other free agents.
First baseman Eric Hosmer is No. 3 on the list and the second best hitter on the market. MLBTR expects he will re-sign with the Kansas City Royals but that could change if the Red Sox are willing to overpay to pry him away. Hosmer is rumored to be a top target for the Red Sox. He’s not the power threat that J.D. Martinez is, but if Boston misses out on the top free agent bat they could turn to Hosmer as a first base upgrade instead of Logan Morrison.
A more affordable backup plan that falls between Hosmer and Morrison would be Carlos Santana (No. 12). He’s a low-average hitter but his ability to draw walks always leaves him with a solid OBP. While his 23 home runs this year wouldn’t be much of an upgrade over what the Red Sox got from Moreland, the 34 he smashed in 2016 suggests Santana has a higher power ceiling.
The only other free agent MLBTR sees as a target for the Red Sox is Neil Walker (No. 28). The 32-year old is an above-average hitter for a second baseman with some pop. He could help fill in for Dustin Pedroia, who isn’t expected to be ready to start next season while recovering from knee surgery. Once Pedroia returns, Walker could be used in a utility role off the bench, as he has limited experience covering first and third base.
There are a number of other free agents that could appeal to the Red Sox, but they can’t be in on everyone. Their payroll is already creeping up on the luxury tax threshold before free agency begins. While they should be willing to go over the tax line, there are limits to how far they will blow by it.
Next: Red Sox looking to add a bat
All three targets MLBTR predicts for the Red Sox may end up being too pricey, but if they manage to sign this trio it would certainly vault them into the elite class of contenders in 2018.