Five Red Sox question marks for the 2018 season

The Boston Red Sox will have a significant number of question marks heading into 2018 and I have chosen five for a review and predictions.

What is a question mark?  What it represents is a symbol for the unknown or an uncertainty according to the online dictionary. The Boston Red Sox certainly have a substantial collection of question marks as they prepare for a defense of their American League East division crown.  That crown, however, is like being seventh in line to the throne of Luxembourg.

The offseason will be one of examining in detail the question marks that have surfaced with the Red Sox.  The question marks may well remain in place well into the 2018 season, but the question marks could certainly be instrumental in how management approaches the roster. Decisions will be made based on the baseball ops perception of these question marks and that will give fodder for Red Sox Nation.

The late Howard Cosell used to have a saying when an NFL player went down with an apparent knee injury during the salad days of Monday Night Football: “It’s always the knee” and if you follow the Red Sox it is certainly the knee that has gathered question mark momentum.

I will start with the knee situation. The five question marks I will mention are fairly obvious, so now a look and some predictions on the eventual outcome of each.

Always best to start with a positive and that is Steven Wright who missed almost the entire 2017 season after extensive knee surgery. Wright in 2016 was an All-Star and may have been in line to win close to 20 games.  The right-handed knuckleball pitcher was just coming into his own at the tender baseball age of 31-years-old.

Wright and that daffy pitch as some call it – usually frustrated batters and catchers – is delivered 87% of the time by Wright, but unlike former Red Sox K-Ball specialist – Tim Wakefield – Wright has other options. Wright can get some respectable speed on his fastball by occasionally touching the high 80s.  Wright also will show a curve about 4% of the time to keep hitters guessing or to freeze them.

For the ill-fated Wright, the first injury was a shoulder when Manager John Farrell confused Wright with Usain Bolt and inserted him as a pinch runner. In best Red Sox tradition if there is a way something can go wrong it did. When the 2017 season burst upon us Wright was forgettable and that was directly connected to his knee.  With the spat of pitching, question marks a recovery to 2016 form by Wright is crucial.

PREDICTION: Wright will come back, and I will also say as a starter and not a pitching hybrid used for long relief, spot starting and occasionally even closing. There is too much drama in the rotation and Wright will get 30 starts and help solidify the tender starting five.

The next on the knee agenda is the surprise surgery to Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez will be just 25-years-old at the beginning of the 2018 season, but it seems like the lefty has been around considerably longer.  Through his first ten games in 2017, E-Rod had a 2.77 ERA and could have been considered the second best in the rotation.

Can Rodriguez recovery to his form the first two months of 2017? There is that question mark and the full story will not be known until next May rolls around. The recovery is slated for six months followed by an extended spring training.

If Wright and Rodriguez are back in the form of their best days, the Red Sox pitching staff could have a serious injection of quality that may be desperately needed. The Red Sox offseason approach to 2018 may be predicated on just how baseball operations view Wright and Rodriguez. I would certainly expect the question mark to cause a more than a serious look at resigning Doug Fister.

PREDICTION: Rodriguez has notoriously slow recoveries from injuries.  The spring training incident in 2016 turned into months after being considered just weeks. I do not expect any change for that and the May return being mentioned is just too optimistic for me.  Expect mid-July and a nice eight wins.

The last knee issue is the obvious one and that is Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia led Boston in hitting with a .293 average and was his old self in the field and at-bat until injuries took charge.  Should Pedroia have just sat?  Probably. But sitting Pedroia only works when adequate replacements are available and on one knee Pedroia is often a better choice than another player on two knees.

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Surgeries take a toll on a player and at 34-years-old Pedroia is entering senior citizenship in baseball years. The knee and the potential for other injuries accumulating may force the Red Sox to sign – and overpay – for Eduardo Nunez as protection. Pedroia is now in unknown status even with a healthy knee.

The Red Sox will have long looks at anyone who can play second base and that could include light hitting Deven Marrero, rookie Tzu-Wei Lin, Mr. Everything Brock Holt and Nunez or someone checked off as “other.” What is known is Pedroia was on the fast track to match his excellent 2016 season and do it both offensively and defensively until Pedroia went down for the count.

PREDICTION: Is Pedroia now on the Bill Mueller track? Mueller simply had two bad pins give out and was finished at age 35.  Pedroia is signed into the next decade so the Red Sox do not need another financial bath. Maybe other options exist?  First base, designated hitter or even third? I expect Pedroia to play 115 games with anymore considered a bonus.

The Red Sox Rick Porcello did a turnaround, but the type that is best to forget about.  Leading the American League in wins in 2016 to leading in losses in 2017 with an ability to toss home run balls that would make Robin Roberts envious. Roberts once led the National League in home runs allowed for four straight seasons, but Roberts is also in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

The Red Sox need Porcello to be far more reliable and that may mean the Porcello of his last season with Detroit and not his first  with Boston. That Porcello was a solid middle of the rotation starter who could eat innings and keep it close. Much of this will be answered the first two months of 2018, but if the Porcello of 2017 surfaces the Red Sox may have to look at other rotation options.

Next: Red Sox Report Card: David Price

PREDICTION: Just what Porcello will show up?  I’ll place my money on any Porcello but the 2016 one.  That was a pitching anomaly based on Porcello’s career track record.  What you will get is 200+ innings, a 4.00 ERA, 30+ home runs allowed and a solid number three for the rotation. Porcello has always had a sturdy arm and that will continue.