Red Sox Free Agent Targets: Top 5 available starting pitchers
The Red Sox are entering a big off-season for the franchise, what pitchers might they try to go after?
The postseason came and went quickly for the Boston Red Sox. Many questioned the manager, some questioned the bats, but in my opinion, this falls on the starting pitching.
No starter for the Red Sox went more than five innings this postseason. This makes the second straight postseason that the starting pitching was the downfall of the team, so what has to give for the Red Sox?
I personally think that the Red Sox have a problem in the starting rotation. The problem does not start with Chris Sale, but it does start with everybody else.
Sale made his postseason debut this season, and nerves are common for a first-time starter. He calmed down for his second outing and was great until making a couple of mistakes in his last inning. It was easy to see that Sale labored through his last inning.
But after Sale, what are the excuses? Drew Pomeranz was pitching great all the way up until the postseason. Rick Porcello struggled all season. Doug Fister, the Sox most experienced starter, threw a dud in his start.
The Red Sox desperately needed a stopper. They needed a guy they could give the ball to, and you knew that he was going to shove.
I am going to give you the top five pitching options for the Sox this off-season, and maybe they can find their stopper for next year.
5. Jake Arrieta
I know what you are thinking, “Jake Arrieta is number five?” Yes, Jake Arrieta is number five.
Let’s be honest, Arrieta is not a necessity for the Red Sox, he is a luxury. The Red Sox got under the luxury tax in 2017, which means they are ready to spend for the future.
Arrieta, despite what many believe was a down year, was still pretty solid for the Cubs. He was solid in the postseason in 2017, boasted a top-30 WPA among starting pitchers and had an ERA of 3.53. He finished with a record of 14-10.
But why would the Sox want to fork out $20 million+ for a guy they don’t need?
The team will definitely need to add a power bat, but if they feel that the offense is good enough as is, why not add the best pitcher on the market?
In reality, I do not think the Sox will go after Arrieta, but you should never count out Dave Dombrowski. If he can pull off a trade to get a power bat, at an affordable price, he could have a little bit of flexibility to add a shutdown pitcher like Arrieta.
Just because of the unlikelihood of this, Arrieta comes in at five on our list.
4. Matt Garza
Remember all those times the Red Sox faced off against Matt Garza when he was with the Tampa Bay Rays?
Well, Garza is not the same pitcher he used to be, but he could be a very serviceable, cheap, back of the rotation starter for the Red Sox.
Garza amassed a 6-9 record, with a 4.94 ERA, but this is not about Garza’s regular season stats. He brings something that the Red Sox do not have: Postseason experience.
Garza has appeared in five postseason games, all starts, and has a 2-1 record with a 3.48 ERA. He may not be the stopper the Sox are looking for, but he can definitely be a guy who could get you five innings in a postseason start.
During the regular season, Garza would likely see time in the rotation during injuries. With Eduardo Rodriguez out for a while after knee surgery, Garza could come in and start at the back-end from day one.
Do not be surprised if the Red Sox try to sign Garza, but only if the price is right.
3. Johnny Cueto
This one is a little tricky.
Cueto, who is technically under contract till 2023, has an opt-out clause in his contract. Now recently, Cueto said he is unlikely to opt out of his contract, but there is still a slight chance he does.
Cueto could easily opt out citing that the Giants are not going in the direction he wants. He would be costing himself some money, but he would improve his chance at winning a championship.
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Cueto just had one of his least impressive seasons in the bigs. He finished the season 8-8 on a miserable Giants team, with an ERA of 4.52. But just one year ago, Cueto had one of his better seasons.
But like Garza, Cueto wouldn’t need to be the stopper for the Red Sox in the postseason. In his career in the postseason, Cueto is 2-4 with a 4.54 ERA. But Cueto has also pitched on the biggest stage in the sport before.
In 2015, he hurled a one-run complete game in the World Series. That was by far the brightest spot of his career.
If Cueto decides to opt out, he could be the first call they make. Keep an eye out for Cueto in the next couple weeks.
2. Alex Cobb
Alex Cobb seemingly had his way with the Red Sox this season. In five outings against them, he had a 2.25 ERA.
Cobb, very much like everybody else on this list, is a very seasoned veteran. He is coming off a fairly strong season. The record is not indicative of his success.
Cobb went 12-10, with a 3.66 ERA this season. He also ranked in the top fifteen in WPA this year, with a WPA of 1.90. Cobb has shown he is a guy who can be a two or three in the rotation, but there is not a need for that in Boston.
Just like everybody else on this list, Cobb would be a strong three or four in the Sox rotation. He is not a need, but he is more of a luxury for the Red Sox.
But will the Red Sox be willing to pay the price tag for Cobb?
Cobb will make somewhere in the area of $15 million this off-season, and that will be from a suitor who will make him their ace, or number two. If the Red Sox could convince Cobb to take a pay cut to stay in the same division and compete for a playoff spot, that may be all he needs to sign up. He has not been part of a meaningful pennant race since 2013.
Cobb could be the guy that the Sox need at the back of the rotation to get the ball back to Chris Sale and David Price.
1. Lance Lynn
In my opinion, Lance Lynn is the number one option on the list, and it is not even close.
Sure, the price is going to be steep to get Lynn. He is likely going to cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $17-$19 million, but the Sox could make room if they have to.
Drew Pomeranz is coming off the best season of his career and is a value at his current contract. The Sox would have no problem moving him, and picking up a mid-level prospect for him, freeing up the money they would owe him.
Then the Sox could afford to get Lynn, meaning a rotation of Chris Sale, David Price, and Lynn. That would be tough to match in a five-game series.
Lynn is coming off of an 11-8 season, in which he had a 3.43 ERA. He is only thirty years old right now and has had five straight seasons of double-digit wins. Lynn also was a top-20 pitcher in the majors in WPA. He is the best pitcher on the market this off-season behind only Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish.
The best thing about Lynn is the postseason stats.
Lynn has appeared in an incredible 24 postseason games, making seven starts. He has a 5-4 record with a 4.50 ERA. He has pitched in the World Series twice, including against your very own Boston Red Sox in 2013.
Related Story: Red Sox Free Agent Targets: Top 5 available hitters
If the Sox are truly going all-in for next season, they should look at Lance Lynn. He will bring a calmness to the rotation in October. Lynn will be asking for a lot, but the Sox should be willing to pay it to win.