Red Sox Free Agent Targets: Top 5 available hitters
The Boston Red Sox are in need of a power bat to bolster their lineup. Here are five free agent options they should consider this winter.
Dave Dombrowski has one clear objective this offseason – find a big bat to anchor the lineup for the Boston Red Sox.
Boston won 93 games and the AL East division title for the second consecutive season. In 2016, they slugged their way to the top with the best offense in baseball. The front office clearly underestimated the void left by the retirement of David Ortiz, which left the offense falling back to the middle of the pack. Rather than attempt to replace the production of a future Hall of Fame hitter, the Red Sox instead pivoted to upgrading their pitching and defense.
The result was that they were left in the same spot they were a year ago, with an early postseason exit. If the Red Sox want to take the next step to become championship contenders instead of first-round fodder, they need to upgrade their lineup.
There are a number of avenues to improve the lineup but the most appealing route is free agency. The Red Sox farm system lacks the trade chips to deal for a star slugger and they don’t have an impact bat ready to make a significant difference. This team needs a home run threat in the middle of the lineup and there just so happens to be several available on the free agent market.
While Upton still has four years and $88.5 million left on his current deal, the contract includes an opt-out clause that can allow him to become a free agent this winter. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported earlier this month that it’s become increasingly likely that Upton will exercise that right to opt out. Morosi goes on to speculate that this could be a mechanism by which he negotiates more favorable terms on a new deal with the Los Angeles Angles, who acquired him in a mid-season trade with the Detroit Tigers.
While Upton’s preference may be to stay with the Angels, he could be swayed if their front office isn’t willing to pay him more than the amount that was left on his current deal. That could allow a team like the Red Sox to swoop in by offering more money on an average annual basis or tacking on additional years to the 30-year old’s deal.
Upton hit .273/.361/.540 over 152 games split between the Tigers and Angels. His .901 OPS was higher than any Red Sox hitter produced this season. It almost goes without saying that his home run total was as well. Upton blasted a career-high 35 homers, the third time in his career that he’s topped 30+ in a season. His 109 RBI were also a career high and more than any Red Sox hitter tallied.
The problem would be where to put him. Upton can play either corner outfield spot, primarily covering left field for the past few years. He’s still an above-average defensive outfielder, producing 8 defensive runs saved this season. He may not be open to the idea of becoming a full-time DH. Signing Upton would probably mean shifting Andrew Benintendi to center field and making Jackie Bradley a fourth outfielder/defensive replacement.
As much as the Red Sox could use Upton’s bat, the defensive downgrade that comes with removing JBJ from center offsets much of the appeal. As frustrating as the streaky Bradley can be at the plate, he still provides tremendous value with his glove. Unless the Red Sox trade Bradley, there doesn’t appear to be room in the outfield for Upton.
Editor’s Update: 11/2 – Upton opted out of his contract only to re-sign a new five-year, $106 million deal with the Angles, taking him off the market.
The All-Star third baseman for the Kansas City Royals tied for eighth in the majors with a career-high 38 home runs this season. If Boston’s goal is to add a home run threat to the lineup, there aren’t many better available options than Moustakas.
The concern is whether or not Moustakas can repeat this performance. His previous career-high for home runs was only 22 and he owns a below-average 96 OPS+ for his career. He drew only 34 walks, resulting in a .313 OBP that places him outside the top 100 major league hitters this season.
The impressive home run total wasn’t enough to push his value higher than 1.8 WAR this season. Every other hitter on this list produced a WAR of more than double that value. Teams enamored by those home runs may drive up the price tag but if his power numbers regress back to his previous career levels then they’ll be stuck paying a hefty salary to a mediocre hitter.
Boston has Rafael Devers at third base but if they were to sign Moustakas they could easily slide one of them across the diamond to first base. It’s not as if either of them are great defensively at the hot corner. Acquiring Moustakas would presumably mean Boston is prepared to move on from Mitch Moreland. If Moose can deliver the same type of power numbers that he flashed this season then he’s a worthwhile upgrade. If this year was a mirage and he reverts back to the low-20 homer range then he’s essentially Moreland without the elite defense.
Moustakas’ teammate in Kansas City brings an entirely different dynamic. Hosmer isn’t going to flirt with 40 homers. He matched his career-high with 25 home runs this year, which is a fair target to assume he can continuing reaching. That total would have led the Red Sox this year but it’s not a significant upgrade over what they have. If power is what Boston covets most then Hosmer is not that guy.
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Yet Hosmer remains on the radar because even without the staggering home run totals he’s still arguably the best pure hitter on this list. Hosmer racked up 192 hits to rank fifth in the majors this season and his .318 average was eighth. Hosmer drew almost twice as many walks as Moustakas, leading to a far superior .385 OBP that places him 15th in the majors.
Hosmer also hit .333 with runners in scoring position, proving he’s quite capable of being a run producer even when he’s not hitting the ball out of the park.
The former Gold Glove winner is also a solid defensive first baseman. He could replace Moreland at the position to give the Red Sox an upgrade at the plate without taking much away defensively.
The Cleveland Indians acquired Bruce in a mid-season trade with the New York Mets to bolster their lineup for a playoff run. After the Tribe bowed out early with an ALDS loss, it’s unclear if they will be willing to pay up to retain him.
Bruce hit .254/.324/.508 over 146 games with the Mets and Indians. His 36 home runs tied for 15th in the majors. While that set a new career-high, Bruce had hit 30+ homers four other times in his career and remains a solid bet to sustain that level.
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With Bruce, the Red Sox would find themselves in a similar dilemma that was previously discussed in regards to Upton. Where do you put him? He has primarily played right field in his career but Boston obviously isn’t asking Mookie Betts to move after he’s established himself as the best defensive player in the game at that position.
They could ask Bruce to shift over to left field, a position he’s played only 11 times in his career. This would mean sliding Benintendi to center, so as was the case in the Upton example, it may only make sense if Bradley gets traded to open a spot in the outfield.
Bruce also some experience at first base, so a transition to the infield is a possibility if he’s open to it. He could also DH, although he’s still a solid defensive outfielder and may not agree to sign with Boston if that were his only path to playing time.
The biggest prize in the free agent hitter pool is Martinez. The 30-year old had his breakout campaign back in 2014 after Dave Dombrowski acquired him as general manager of the Tigers. Could the current Red Sox president of baseball operations pursue Martinez again?
Martinez hit .303/.376./.690 over 119 games split between the Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks. He led the majors in slugging, his 1.066 OPS was second and he was third in home runs with 45. Those are the Ortiz-type numbers this Red Sox lineup was missing this year.
As enticing as those numbers are, Martinez isn’t without a few red flags. He has played in more than 123 games only once in his seven year career. Prior to this season, he topped 23 home runs only once in his career, in large part due to missing so much time with various injuries.
Martinez hit 29 home runs in only 62 games with the Diamondbacks after opening the season with 16 homers in 57 games with the Tigers. Arizona’s Chase Field was the fourth best home run park in baseball according to ESPN’s Park Factors. While Fenway is an above-average park for offense, it ranked only 26th for home runs. Martinez’ power is legit but don’t expect him to routinely top 40 homers per season if he signs here.
As an outfielder, signing Martinez presents the same problem of where to put him. Although, unlike Upton and Bruce, Martinez is a below-average defensive player. It may be easier to persuade him to become a DH, especially if he can be sold on the idea that the role would help keep him healthy.
The downside is that Martinez will still except to be paid like an everyday position player, so there will be no discount for being a DH like there was with Ortiz. Despite his defensive limitations, Martinez will almost certainly earn the biggest contract of any free agent hitter this winter. Without providing any defensive value it will be difficult for Martinez to live up to the lucrative contract he’ll demand.
Next: Three positions Red Sox need to upgrade
It may prove to be a poor value but given how desperate they are to add a home run threat to the middle of their lineup it would be worth shelling out the money for Martinez.