Red Sox: Three positions that may need a reset for 2018
The Boston Red Sox may have some possible changes at three positions. Brock Holt, Chris Young and Mitch Moreland may soon be former members of the Red Sox. Now for some possible replacements.
The Boston Red Sox will make changes and that has already started with the firing of manager John Farrell. That, however, is the leadership role and the main ingredient is the on field performers where other changes most certainly will take place.
The Red Sox will make a free agent signing since they usually do, but to what extent? The Red Sox will also see free agents leave and that will impact decisions on player acquisition and development. There are three areas that I have chosen to look at that the Red Sox may be examining internal and external options.
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The first is a reserve or platoon or fourth outfielder – however one wishes to do a baseball linguistics dance. The second is considered a utility role – primarily focused on the infield. Lastly is free agency and that means first base where the incumbent is now or soon to be on the open market. Will the Red Sox resign or go elsewhere?
The long season invariably shows the necessity for having talented replacements. The Pablo Sandoval situation and revolving door at third showed that until the minor league system provided an answer. Dustin Pedroia played far too many games with a balky knee and replacing Pedroia’s number offensively and defensively is not an easy task.
Now a look at the three positions and possible options.
RESERVE OUTFIELDER
Chris Young at an early stage in his career was an All-Star who could play all three outfield positions. Now declining defensive skills limit his use considerably as Young’s -12.9 UZR/150 and -4 Defensive Runs Saved may indicate. A right-handed hitter with noted success against lefties evaporated in 2017 with just a .200 average. Young hit .235 for the season with a -0.2 fWAR.
The Red Sox could go internal on this replacement part. Bryce Brentz had a successful season at Pawtucket leading the International League in home runs with 31. The right-handed Brentz certainly has the power potential, but is now off the roster. The cost would be minimal and Brentz is an above-average defensive player.
The downside to Rusney Castillo is his contract. Can and would the Red Sox be willing to add Castillo’s $11.7 Million to their payroll? Castillo slashed .314/.350/.857 with 15 home runs and 43 RBI in 87 games at Pawtucket, so he may have finally resuscitated his career. Castillo is also capable at all three outfield positions and did swipe 14 bases in 16 attempts. If not for his burdensome contract Castillo would be high on the list.
Curtis Granderson can still hit with power as shown by 26 home runs in split duty between the Mets and Dodgers. But Granderson also hit just .212. What Granderson does give is a solid left-handed bat, exceptional leadership and average defense. The contract issue may also be one that is difficult since Granderson will be coming off a $15 million contract.
Rajai Davis has speed and that always is an asset. Davis can also play all three outfield positions, but he has limited punch with five home runs in 366 plate appearances. Nothing special as a defender. 0.1 fWAR.
Is it time for a reunion with Daniel Nava? Nava hit .301 in 80 games for the Phillies and can switch hit, play first base and will be cheap. Nava’s payroll figure for 2017 was $1.35 Million so that would be quite manageable. Nava played right and left field for the Phillies and his metrics figures were a combined 2.8 UZR/150. Don’t expect much arm strength from Nava. Surprising 1.1 fWAR.
UTILITY INFIELDER
Brock Holt is now an injury-plagued baseball Leatherman tool whose offensive skills have nosedived. The former All-Star hit just .200 for the Red Sox in 64 games. The left-handed hitting Holt is also eligible for arbitration and his nearly $2 Million salary could get a slight bump despite a 0.9 fWAR.
Is Tzu-Wei Lin ready? The left-handed hitting Lin has little power, but maybe that is developing after seven home runs in 300 at-bats between Portland and Pawtucket. Lin made an impressive 25 game appearance with the Red Sox and hit .268 and that is in line with a .267 with the PawSox.
Lin – like Holt – can play anywhere and with the Red Sox was stationed at third or short with an impressive 17.6 UZR/150 at short and a 10.7 UZR/150 at third. Spring training will show a bit more, but Lin did have a 0.4 fWAR for Boston.
Deven Marrero has a great glove, strong-arm and a bat that needs PED’s. Marrero did hit .211 for the Red Sox and made the postseason roster primarily to give defensive support for Rafael Devers. In 71 games Marrero hit four home runs and had 27 RBI, so occasionally he will go yard. Marrero checked in with a 0.2 fWAR and I would expect him to be on the roster in 2018.
Injuries killed off the season for right-handed hitting Josh Rutledge. Rutledge is a traditional infield bench player who can man all four infield positions and did in 2017. Rutledge is also eligible for arbitration, but don’t expect any financial hit. Rutledge had a -0.4 fWAR on 2017.
Marco Hernandez can hit with a career .284 average in 61 games. In 2017 a shoulder injury put an end to his season, but expect a return for 2018. Where the issue of a giant question mark exists with Hernandez is hitting versus defense. The fielding sample is small, but Hernandez is no candidate for a Gold Glove. 0.0 fWAR.
The obvious super sub would be Eduardo Nunez, but the energetic 30-year-old right-handed hitter may be looking for a big free agent deal. If the Red Sox were opening the coffers for a multi positioned talent it would be Nunez who slashed .321/.353/.892 in 38 games for Boston.
Nunez could be in Boston if Dave Dombrowski has the trade winds blowing and some deals materialize that open full-time duty for Nunez. Nunez – who has outfield experience – brings speed and some respectable pop with his bat. Nunez had a 2.2 fWAR for 2017, but his knee injury is still a potential roadblock.
FIRST BASE
Mitch Moreland did exactly as expected with a very comfortable .246/.326/.769 slash coupled with 22 home runs and 79 RBI. Moreland – a left-handed hitter – is an excellent fielder who has expressed a strong desire to stay in Boston. As a free agent Moreland’s $5.5 Million for 2017 should get a significant boost in years and money.
Moreland did the job and any comparison to David Ortiz should be ignored as Moreland was not supposed to replace Ortiz’s production. I would also expect the Red Sox to look for other options with one that many consider the first baseman of the future.
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Sam Travis is a hitter. He looks like a hitter and shows it with some decent gap power. But where is the home run power? Despite his muscular build Travis is simply not a home run threat. In 82 at-bats with the Red Sox Travis hit none out. At Pawtucket Travis hit just six in 82 games. So, this is not a traditional Red Sox right-handed power bat. Can the Red Sox absorb that lack of home run power?
Blake Swihart is a long shot at first base since he has no experience at that sack. The Red Sox have again switched on Swihart and returned him to catcher, but maybe the Arizona Fall League will be a better indication of intent.
Swihart – once a can’t miss prospect – may finally have resolved his ankle issues that have stalled his career. The level of talent the switch hitter once displayed makes it tough to give up on that level of potential. At first base? Doubtful.
If the Red Sox decide to go all in fiscally that could certainly change the dynamics. Logan Morrison had a break out year with Tampa slugging 38 home runs. Was that just a statistical bump for the left-handed hitting Morrison? Moreland has a better glove and is close in run production.
Mike Napoli hits a bundle of home runs (29) and plays a respectable first base, but a .193 average and 168 K’s takes him off any list despite his noted leadership ability. Again – Moreland a better choice.
The one that offers the best combination of glove, power and average is left-handed hitting Eric Hosmer. This is a big – very big – ticket to play first base. Hosmer is in the prime of his career so you would expect big money and long years in any contract.
Hanley Ramirez has one year left on his contract if an option does not kick in and it could be spent at first base. Originally Moreland and Ramirez would flip-flop between first and DH, but a sore shoulder by Ramirez curtailed that. The Red Sox return Ramirez to first depending upon signing or trading for talent.
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Carlos Santana is a switch-hitter with excellent power and an expected bump in his contract. Numbers wise, he is quite similar in 2017 to Moreland.