The Boston Red Sox postseason roster may be a preview of which players the front office values over others heading into next season and beyond.
The playoff rosters are fluid and a player left off in one series may be on the roster in the next series, but it does give a glimpse into the possible depth chart of the future. The roster usually has players who are considered borderline for the following season either related to contract status or performance. There is also an item called “need” in that a player may have a special skill that is valued and that may supersede in the short-term over a more productive player.
Raji Davis made the ALDS roster based on his asset of note – speed. The Red Sox value speed since they are now a team that must manufacture runs. Speed is well-noted, thanks to Dave Roberts and his now legendary steal.
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Deven Marrero is defensively skilled and became an occasional late-inning replacement for Rafael Devers who has questionable defensive skills. The importance of utilizing late inning defense can best be described by the name Bill Buckner who was placed in harm’s way when Dave Stapleton was available. Marrero also has excellent numbers against left-handed pitching.
A pitcher may get a roster spot based solely on the genetic factor of being either left-handed or right-handed. Mix and match become instrumental and the other team’s roster may dictate just who gets a nod based on their hitters. Accidents can happen and Eduardo Nunez balky knee opened a slot for Chris Young who was originally a leftover.
There is, however, a bit more that tells a story and the first one that gets my attention is a duplication of service. Matt Barnes and Heath Hembree are both similar in more ways than just being right-handed. Both rely heavily on fastballs that average in the mid to high 90’s in velocity. Joe Kelly, who made the roster, does the same, but with even more velocity.
From my perspective, I can certainly delve into various metrics, September performances and what each had for breakfast to build a statistical case. Cherry picking of statistics certainly can provide that. Essentially what I am able to glean from this process is I would possibly have to have a dartboard with their names on it – and maybe Brandon Workman’s – and use that as a selection, but the real issue is not the immediate, but the future.
In 2018, the bullpen will change as it does every season. With the recovery of Carson Smith and the potential return of Tyler Thornburg, the future in Boston for Hembree, Barnes, Kelly, and Workman may be limited. Smith is already on the playoff roster and has been excellent in his return, so his place in 2018 is secure. The Red Sox will also give every opportunity to Thornburg to capture some necessary positives after Travis Shaw had such a spectacular season for the Brewers.
Barnes, in particular, is a valuable asset with his gift of pitching multiple innings and doing a rather credible job the entire season as his 1.0 fWAR would indicate. Kelly had a 0.7 fWAR and Hembree posted a 0.5 fWAR. All three may be in competition this postseason for their Boston future.
Back to 2018, I would expect the foursome of Hembree, Barnes, Workman, and Kelly to be well modified by trade and even a simple release. Contract status is also part of the mix and when two talents are viewed as similar expect to go cheap.
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The Red Sox may advance to the next round and then another switch may or may not happen. Kelly could self-destruct and that opens up the opportunity for the next man standing, but this is also a very high profiled audition for future employment. Since I enjoy watching my predictions self-destruct I will say Barnes and Kelly will be with the team next season.
Young wants to be with the Red Sox next season, but he will not be. Young’s Boston career may be over with Davis taking the first round roster spot. Young now has a second chance when injury intervened. Young’s season – especially against right-handed pitching – has been dreadful. Without that his ability off the bench or in a relief role is minimal. Expect Young to either retire or go elsewhere.
Marrero has the one skill that pitchers, managers, and fans love – a great glove. This season Marrero actually did some positive damage instead of negative damage with his bat hitting .211 with five home runs and 27 RBI. There is always space on some roster for glove work that is exceptional and that means Marrero may finally have earned an extended stay.
Next: Chris Young added to ALDS roster
If the Red Sox advance to the World Series that will be a telling point for players who call the 20-25th spots on the roster their home. Most likely those are the players that will have every opportunity to stay with the team and be a part of 2018.