MLB Postseason 2017: Red Sox vs Astros ALDS series preview
MLB Postseason 2017: A preview of the American League Division Series between the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros beginning on October 5.
The MLB postseason has arrived, as the Boston Red Sox get set to take on the Houston Astros in the American League Division Series.
The AL Central champion Astros finished the season with a record of 101-61, one game behind the Cleveland Indians for the best record in the AL. Houston was one of three teams to top 100 wins, giving MLB three 100-win teams for the first time since 2003. It’s only the sixth time in major league history that three teams have reached the century mark in the same season.
Boston won the AL East Division by finishing two games ahead of the New York Yankees with a record of 93-69. The Red Sox dropped five of their last seven games to wrap up the regular season at Fenway Park. They clinched the division with a win over the Astros on September 30, rendering the final game on the schedule meaningless.
After a four-game series at Fenway to finish the regular season, the Red Sox and Astros will meet again in the first round of the playoffs. This sets up a scenario where the teams could conceivably see each other for up to nine consecutive games.
Now the stakes are higher, the pressure rises, the lights are brighter and every pitch matters significantly more. It’s time for the MLB postseason to begin!
Head-to-Head
Houston won the season series 4-3, although that record can be taken with a grain of salt. With postseason seedings locked in by that point, both teams rolled out their B squad rosters for the regular season finale won by the Astros.
If we ignore that meaningless last game, the Astros essentially took two out of three in Boston, matching what the Red Sox did in Houston back in June. From a head-to-head record perspective, these teams are basically equal.
Here’s a breakdown of those previous meetings this season.
June 16 @ Houston – Red Sox 2, Astros 1
Mookie Betts hit an eighth-inning solo home run to break a 1-1 tie, giving Boston the narrow victory.
June 17 @ Houston – Astros 7, Red Sox 1
The Astros jumped on Rick Porcello out of the gate, lighting up the right-hander for seven runs over six innings. Boston was held to three hits, with their only run coming on a solo homer from Chris Young in the fifth inning.
June 18 @ Houston – Red Sox 6, Astros 5
David Price earned his second win of the season despite lasting only five innings and allowing three runs. The Red Sox lineup scored four times in the top of the sixth, just in time to take the lead with their starter still in line for the decision.
September 28 @ Boston – Astros 12, Red Sox 2
This wasn’t how the Red Sox wanted to open their final series of the regular season, especially against the team they were destined to meet in the playoffs. Eduardo Rodriguez gave up five early runs and couldn’t make it out of the second inning. The Astros piled up 17 hits in the route.
September 29 @ Boston – Astros 3, Red Sox 2
Boston chipped away at the lead after falling into an early 3-0 hole but couldn’t finish the comeback against the Astros bullpen. They had the tying run in scoring position in the ninth inning following a Hanley Ramirez double only for Rafael Devers to ground out to end the game.
September 30 @ Boston – Red Sox 6, Astros 3
Boston clinched the AL East division title with a win behind six innings of one-run ball from starter Drew Pomeranz. The Red Sox lineup scored twice in the fourth inning and tacked on three more in the fifth against Lance McCullers to build a lead they would not relinquish.
October 1 @ Boston – Astros 4, Red Sox 3
The Red Sox started Hector Velazquez instead of Chris Sale, which tells you all you need to know about how much this game mattered to them. Boston favored lining up their rotation with Sale ready for Game 1 over carrying momentum into the postseason.
ALDS Pitching Matchups
Thursday, October 5 @ Houston – 4:08 p.m.
LHP Chris Sale (17-8, 2.90 ERA) vs RHP Justin Verlander (15-8, 3.36 ERA)
Sale joined Pedro Martinez as the only Red Sox pitchers ever with 300+ strikeouts in a season. He ultimately fell five strikeouts short of Pedro’s single-season franchise record, in part because the Red Sox skipped his start the final day of the regular season to rest him for the playoffs.
Verlander is 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts since the Astros acquired him from the Detroit Tigers in an August waiver deal.
Friday, October 6 @ Houston – 2:05 p.m.
LHP Drew Pomeranz (17-6, 3.32 ERA) vs LHP Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90 ERA)
Pomeranz made 10 starts against teams that have qualified for the 2017 postseason, posting a 6-1 record with a 2.62 ERA. The Red Sox were 9-1 in those games.
2015 Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel returned to form this year after a down 2016 season. He missed time this year with an injury, limiting him to 23 starts and keeping him short of qualifying for the ERA title. With enough innings to qualify, he would have tied Sale for second in the league.
Sunday, October 8 @ Boston – 2:38 p.m
RHP Doug Fister (5-9, 4.88 ERA) vs RHP Charlie Morton (14-7, 3.62 ERA)
Fister has been confirmed as the Game 3 starter for the Red Sox. While that may be a bit of a controversial decision, it’s worth noting that he’s the only starting pitcher candidate on this staff with a postseason win on his resume. A case can be made that Eduardo Rodriguez deserves this spot but it’s believed he’s slated for a bullpen role. The lack of another left-handed reliever aside from David Price supports that theory and helps clarify why Fister gets the starting nod.
Morton made more starts for the Astros than any pitcher on their staff and tied for the team lead in wins.
Monday, October 9 @ Boston – TBA (if necessary)
RHP Rick Porcello (11-17, 4.65 ERA) vs RHP Brad Peacock (13-2, 3.00 ERA)
If E-Rod is in fact in the bullpen then the Red Sox may be forced to turn to a pitcher who led the league in losses and home runs allowed for a potential Game 4. If Boston faces elimination entering this game, don’t count out Sale pitching on three days rest. Keeping Porcello on the roster allows Farrell to be flexible and push that decision off until we see how the first few games pan out.
Peacock has bounced between the bullpen and rotation but finished the year with a win in three consecutive starts, including one over Boston. The Astros could determine that Peacock can transition back to a bullpen role more seamlessly than their other starting options but he deserves the nod over Lance McCullers, who was blasted for five runs against the Red Sox last week.
Wednesday, October 11 @ Houston – TBA (if necessary)
LHP Chris Sale (17-8, 2.90 ERA) vs RHP Justin Verlander (15-8, 3.36 ERA)
If this series reaches five games then we could see a rematch of the Game 1 starters. It’s also possible that Sale pitches in Game 4 on short rest, which would set up Pomeranz to take the mound in a potential Game 5.
Houston is less likely to use a starter on short rest given that they have better rotation depth, so Verlander would probably be saved for Game 5.
Team Stats
A statistical comparison of where the Red Sox and Astros ranked in the American League this season.
Offense
Runs Scored
Astros: 896 (1st)
Red Sox: 785 (6th)
Batting Average
Astros: .282 (1st)
Red Sox: .258 (9th)
On-Base Percentage
Astros: .346 (1st)
Red Sox: .329 (5th)
Slugging
Astros: .478 (1st)
Red Sox: .407 (14th)
Home Runs
Astros: 328 (2nd)
Red Sox: 168 (15th)
Stolen Bases
Red Sox: 106 (3rd)
Astros: 98 (4th)
Pitching
Earned Run Average
Red Sox: 3.70 ERA (2nd)
Astros: 4.12 ERA (5th)
Starting Pitcher ERA
Astros: 4.03 ERA (3rd)
Red Sox: 4.06 (4th)
Bullpen ERA
Red Sox: 3.15 ERA (2nd)
Astros: 4.27 ERA (10th)
Save Percentage
Red Sox: 68.42 % (3rd)
Astros: 68.18 % (4th)
Strikeouts
Astros: 1593 (2nd), 9.91 K/9 (2nd)
Red Sox: 1580 (3rd), 9.59 K/9 (4th)
Strikeout-to-Walk ratio
Red Sox: 3.40 K/BB (2nd)
Astros: 3.05 K/BB (4th)
Defense
Fielding Percentage
Astros: .983 (9th)
Red Sox: .982 (13th)
Defensive Runs Saved
Red Sox: 70 (1st)
Astros: -10 (9th)
Ultimate Zone Rating
Red Sox: 26.9 (1st)
Astros: -26.7 (14th)
Series Notes
- The Red Sox have won consecutive AL East division titles for the first time in franchise history. They now have won the division nine times since the division structure began in 1969.
- Manager John Farrell set a new franchise record with his third division title as manager (2013, 2016, 2017).
- FanGraphs projects the Red Sox to have the lowest odds of the remaining AL playoff teams of reaching the World Series at 17.5 percent. That’s a perplexing gap beneath the Wild Card-winning New York Yankees, who are tied with the Astros at 21.1 percent. Cleveland has by far the best odds at 40.1 percent.
- Houston was third in the AL with a +196 run differential, while Boston was fourth at +117.
- Both teams had identical home records this season at 48-33. However, the Astros were road warriors, tying Cleveland for the most road wins in the league with 53. The Red Sox were a solid 45-36 on the road and won a pair of games in Houston already this season.
- The Red Sox are expecting to get Eduardo Nunez back in the lineup for this series. The versatile infielder missed 20 of the final 22 regular season games with a knee injury but has been deemed ready to return.
- Xander Bogaerts was the most productive hitter in Boston’s lineup against the Astros this year. He was 7-for-23 (.304) with two doubles, two home runs and five RBI in six games against Houston. The only other Red Sox player to hit above .300 or produce an OPS above .950 against Houston was Brock Holt, who went 4-for-8 with a double in limited time.
- Andrew Benintendi joined Ellis Burks (1987) and Nomar Garciaparra (1997) as the only Red Sox rookies with 20 HR and 20 steals in a season.
- Astros outfielder George Springer tied for the league-lead with 34 home runs out of the leadoff spot. His .894 OPS was easily the best among AL leadoff hitters.
Key Hitters
Red Sox
Mookie Betts
2017 Stats: .264/.344/.459, 24 home runs, 101 runs, 102 RBI, 26 steals, 6.2 WAR
The dramatic fall in batting average stands out most about the stat line from Betts, a career .291 hitter who was second in the league with a .318 average last year. The reason for the decline points primarily to an absurdly low .268 BABIP that suggests Betts was one of the unluckiest hitters in the league. His .194 ISO is only slightly lower than last season. The percentage of soft contact he made was up a bit but his increase in hard contact was more than enough to offset that. His strikeout rate was almost identical to last year at 11.1 percent. Betts was swinging the bat well, the ball simply wasn’t falling in for a hit as often as it should have.
A dip in home run power played a small part, although that’s not completely unexpected. His career-high 31 home runs last year took even Betts by surprise, so the mid-20’s total is closer to what he’ll typically produce.
While the home run power declined, Betts was still an extra-base hitting machine. He racked up 46 doubles to rank third in the league in that category. He tied for sixth in the AL with 72 extra-base hits.
Betts was one of only three AL hitters to top both 100 runs scored and 100 RBI this season. He was also one of only six players in the league to join the 20+ home run, 20+ steal club.
As great as Betts can be with a bat in his hands, he’s even better with his glove. His 31 defensive runs saved were the most among major league outfielders and second most at any position.
His all-around game is why Betts remains one of the most valuable position players in the game even in what we consider a down offensive year.
Astros
Jose Altuve
2017 Stats: .346/.410/.547, 24 home runs, 112 runs, 81 RBI, 32 steals, 7.9 WAR
Altuve won his third career batting title, finishing well ahead of the pack. He was the only AL hitter to top 200 hits, which he has now done in four consecutive seasons.
The speedy second baseman was third in the league with 32 steals, a category he has twice led the league in during his career. His 24 home runs equaled the career-high he set last season and he joins Betts in the exclusive 20/20 club.
He’s no slouch in the field either. His 3 defensive runs saved ranked seventh in the league at his position and he was first with 13 total zone fielding runs above average.
Next: Ranking AL playoff lineups
While voters may be enamored with the prestigious power of Aaron Judge, it’s Altuve that was the best all-around position player this year. He should be the AL MVP this season and will be a stiff challenge for the Red Sox pitching staff to contain.