Red Sox: Predicting which relief pitchers make ALDS roster

The Boston Red Sox had the second-ranked bullpen in the majors this season but have decisions to make when selecting relievers to make the ALDS roster.

Bullpens have become increasingly important in recent postseasons as we’ve seen teams succeed using a core of lights-out relievers to lock down the final few innings. Fall behind early against a team with a dominant bullpen and the chances for a comeback become only slightly more likely than David Ortiz returning to the Boston Red Sox roster this postseason.

The Red Sox have one of the best bullpens in baseball, ranking second in the majors with a collective 3.15 ERA and fifth with a .226 batting average against. They have a deep core of relievers capable of shutting down opposing lineups but the options at the disposal of manager John Farrell won’t be as plentiful as they were during the month of September with expanded rosters. They will need to decide which pitchers they can rely on most in order to trim down the bullpen to meet roster requirements for the American League Division Series.

Boston is expected to carry 11 pitchers on their roster when they face the Houston Astros in the ALDS. Four of those pitchers will presumably be starters, barring an unorthodox approach to a potential Game 4. That leaves seven pitchers to make up the bullpen.

Which seven relief pitchers do the Red Sox take with them into the postseason? Let’s break down their options.

Probable

RHP Addison Reed, RHP Austin Maddox

Addison Reed’s tenure in Boston has been a bit rockier than expected but his overall numbers are nothing to scoff at. His 3.33 ERA with the Red Sox is lower than his career average and his 0.93 WHIP is better than he’s posted in any full season.

Reed’s issues are two-fold. He walked nine batters in 27 innings for a 3.0 BB/9 and allowed five home runs for a 1.7 HR/9. Both hideous figures are well above his career norm and may be obscured by a small sample size. While those numbers may not be indicative of the pitcher Reed is, they are still concerning. Walks and home runs are the two greatest enemies of a relief pitcher. Reed will still be on the postseason roster shouldn’t be used in the highest leverage situations.

Rookie right-hander Austin Maddox doesn’t have much of a track record but he’s shown enough during his brief time in the majors to indicate he’s one of Boston’s most reliable relievers. Maddox allowed only one earned run in 17 1/3 innings this season for a spectacular 0.52 ERA. The one run came in his most recent outing, which also served as his longest when he tossed 2 1/3 innings against the Astros last Thursday.

His one weakness appears to be against lefties. While he was nearly untouchable against right-handed hitters, lefties hit .280 with a .720 OPS in 40 at-bats against Maddox. It’s a minuscule sample but with the high stakes of the postseason, it would be best to avoid using Maddox against left-handed hitters.

Lefty

LHP Robby Scott

We know that southpaw David Price will be in the bullpen, but his role isn’t dictated on when the opponent’s lineup has left-handed hitters stepping up to the plate. The Red Sox will need a pitcher to call on to exclusively face lefties and the options boil down to two choices: Robby Scott or Fernando Abad.

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Ideally, neither of these pitchers will be on the mound unless they are facing a lefty. If we look only at their numbers against left-handed hitters, it’s a clear advantage for Scott. Lefties hit .121 with a .527 OPS against Scott, while they hit .227 with a .636 OPS against Abad.

Red Sox Nation turned on Abad following a frustrating stint that followed the mid-season trade that brought him to Boston last season. He quietly turned things around this year, posting a 3.30 ERA that is a marginal improvement over Scott’s 3.79 ERA. That’s about the extent of where Abad’s advantage ends.

While Abad’s ERA is nearly cut in half from the disastrous mark he posted during his time in Boston last year, it’s hardly a reason to start trusting him. In fact, Farrell rarely did trust him in meaningful situations. Abad’s 0.697 average on the Baseball Reference Leverage Index ranks 71st out of 84 AL relievers, showing the pressure he faced was well below average. 33 of his 48 appearances this season came in what Baseball Reference classifies as low-leverage situations.

Scott’s ERA is a tick higher but he was also utilized in more high-pressure situations. He owned an above-average 1.058 aLI and appeared in 24 high-leverage situations.

There’s no greater pressure than the postseason stage and it’s clear that Scott is the lefty that Farrell trusts most between these two.

Questionable

RHP Joe Kelly

Joe Kelly would have found his name in the Locks section if he were still pitching the way he did in the first half when he posted a 1.49 ERA before the break. Kelly hit the disabled list in July and hasn’t been the same pitcher since. He owns a 4.98 ERA over 21 2/3 innings since returning. His strikeout rate has actually gone up but he also walked 11 batters over that span. Kelly still throws an imposing fastball that can reach triple-digits on the radar gun but he needs to show better control. His month of September was much better than August when he initially returned from the DL, so at least he’s trending in the right direction.

If Kelly can’t be trusted, who else would take this final spot? Brandon Workman was a candidate before stumbling down the stretch. He allowed a pair of runs in each of his last two appearances and owns a 6.10 ERA since the start of September. Heath Hembree is a serviceable right-hander who has logged a significant workload this season but his ERA is nearly a full run higher than last year. Matt Barnes has logged more innings than any Red Sox reliever but he’s posted a 4.30 ERA in the second half and a 6.75 ERA in September. It’s been over a month since Farrell trusted Barnes enough to use him in a tight ballgame that wasn’t decided in extra-innings.

Any of those pitchers could be options to fill the final bullpen spot but I’m leaning toward Kelly for the upside he brings if he can recapture his early season form.

The wildcard in this scenario is that since the Red Sox will only need four starting pitchers, the odd man out of the rotation could end up in the bullpen. Between Eduardo Rodriguez, Doug Fister and Rick Porcello, would any of them prove useful in a relief role? Possibly, although I don’t view any of them as a better option than Kelly.

Next: Red Sox vs Astros: How ALDS opponents match up

The only reason to keep one of them in the bullpen is if Farrell expects to have a short leash for their Game 4 starter, in which case having a pitcher on standby who can handle a starter’s workload could prove essential.