Red Sox vs Astros: How ALDS opponents match up
A brief look at the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros and how they match up as they begin their postseason. Expect more from BSI leading up to Game One of the ALDS.
When you measure a team’s chance you must divorce emotion from the process and somehow concentrate on facts and facts usually mean a healthy dose of statistical evidence. The Boston Red Sox will now face off against Houston, the team with the second-best record in the American League. Just how do the Red Sox measure up? What are their chances?
This will be a breakdown of the key components for each team and how they compare. Houston is most certainly the favorite with fans, media and those that set the betting odds. I can’t argue with that. If I was a neutral fan, I would clearly say the Astros will easily dismiss Boston and move on to face the Indians.
Below the surface is a few interesting items that give Boston an advantage. Will they be a factor? Is there the possibility of a minor upset? Will they be a player who suddenly rises to the occasion and has an impact series?
In baseball, I tend to dismiss head-to-head competition. Houston looked great at Fenway Park and not so great when they faced the Boston Red Sox at beautiful Minute Maid Park. This is like 2007 when the Colorado Rockies looked impressive in a three-game series at Fenway Park and then a dud in the World Series. That said the stats can give a look at a team’s strengths and weaknesses. Now for a look and mire will follow on BSI as we head to the first game of the ALDS.
OFFENSE
Just wandering around Fangraphs in this category does not give this Red Sox fan comfort. The Astros are simply an offensive machine – the very best in the league with a cumulative 32.6 fWAR with Boston checking in with a 17.7 fWAR. But checking out the various sundry categories it is not even close.
The Astros led the league in almost every major offensive category from batting average (.282) to the more intricate metrics such as wOBA (.349), wRC+ (121) and ISO (.197). If you wish to find a negative they only hit 238 home runs to finish second to the Yankees (240) and their .309 BABIP fell one-point shy of first.
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The lineup is simply loaded top to bottom. What is even more depressing if you are a pitcher is they are the least likely team to strikeout with a 17.3 K%. But they do walk less than the Red Sox with an 8.1 BB% – no doubt when you hit like they do why bother with a walk? Even with speed, the Astros are no lethargic group with 97 steals – just behind Boston.
Boston’s offense is one that is certainly not what fans are used to seeing with the last-place finish in home runs. Boston certainly is no pushover, but the offense is just middle of the pack in the American League. Is there really any hitter that instills the fear David Ortiz did?
The Red Sox had no .300 hitters this season and Houston has four, including batting champion Jose Altuve. Houston has strength off the bench, good contact hitters, and a world of power. Boston lacks all of that in a comparison. Boston’s bench is degraded by the possible absence of Eduardo Nunez. A healthy Nunez would go a long way in balancing the scales.
Houston plays well on the road. Make that exceptionally well on the road with a record of 53-28. Their run differential is +196 and in one-run games, they are 19-13. Boston is 22-19 in one-run games, but where Boston excels is extra innings going 15-3 to Houston’s 4-4.
Houston is just superior to Boston in an offensive comparison. The hope for Boston is the old baseball adage that pitching dominates and Boston does have pitching.
EDGE: Houston
STARTING ROTATION
In the playoffs, it becomes a bit skewered when looking at the rotation. The normal five-man rotation becomes four and even three with desperation. For the season, the Boston and Houston rotations were quite close. Boston’s starters had a 17.0 fWAR and the Astros an 11.5 fWAR. Where it is of concern is momentum.
Boston’s rotation the last week of the season did little to impress with Chris Sale, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez and Drew Pomeranz all having difficulties, but it is now a new season. What could be the dividing factor is finding a pitcher of Sale’s capabilities and Houston may just have that and it is not Dallas Keuchel. For September Boston’s rotation is ranked eighth and the Astros second. A very bad time for a slump.
A late season move that brought Justin Verlander to Houston and the results have been painful for any opponent looking at facing the Astros. Verlander is 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA since joining the Astros. Boston recently saw Charlie Morton, Brad Peacock, and Lance McCullers and Astros manager A.J. Hinch can send one to the bullpen for the series.
The Red Sox have Sale and Pomeranz on solid ground, but the remaining is one gigantic question mark. Porcello led the league in home runs allowed and losses – not a good sign for facing that Houston lineup. Rodriguez simply had nothing and may be out of the picture in favor of veteran Doug Fister. With a predominantly right-handed hitting batting order by Houston, it may be Fister.
There are two issues that make this area one of concern for Boston. The first is the slump by the Red Sox’ group and the second is the addition of Verlander to Houston. Boston needs Sale to be on his game which means the potential for a game five for Sale and Pomeranz to do what he did in the division-clinching game.
EDGE: Houston
BULLPEN
Expect a starter to end up in the bullpen and for the bullpen depth to diminish by at least one pitcher. Usually, teams opt for a position player at the expense of the bullpen. For the season the two teams are relatively close in the statistical department with Boston’s bullpen posting a 6.8 fWAR and Houston a 5.5 fWAR.
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Neither bullpen has a remarkable reliever or two that will get you to your closer. Right-hander Chris Devenski keeps his BB/9 low (2.9) and gets his whiffs (11.2 K/9) and may be the best for both teams with one notable exception – David Price. Price has been phenomenal in his late-season relief appearances.
For the rest of both teams, nothing stands out with Matt Barnes, Joe Kelly, Luke Gregerson and several others. Neither team has a traditional lefty out of the bullpen who will instill any level of fear in left-handed hitters. Collectively on both team, they are good, but not great. Where the separation happens is closer.
Craig Kimbrel is the best in the league and it is not even a debate. The Astros have Ken Giles and his 34 saves, but Giles – who is excellent – is at a level below Kimbrel – just like everyone else.
Boston has an advantage in the bullpen with Price. A big advantage if September is any indication. They also have an advantage with their closer, but they need to get into a situation where they can use Kimbrel.
EDGE: Boston
DEFENSE
The most important ingredient in defense is pitching, but you also must catch the ball and throw the ball. Boston has a tight defense compared to Houston. If you go to metrics Boston has a 27.8 UZR and 3.8 UZR/150. Houston is -26.3 UZR and -3.4 UZR/150. The Red Sox had 44 Defensive Runs Saved for second in the league and the Astros had -19 DRS. Then there are the matchups by position and I will start with catching.
Boston has speed on the bases. Not one exceptional base stealer like Jacoby Ellsbury, but a collection that can take an extra base and steal a base. Boston’s catchers caught 39 in 99 attempts for 39%. Houston was awful with only 14 captured in 116 attempts. This was a figure I found to give a bit of promise for their notoriously aggressive Boston base runners. Advanced metrics have Boston ranked first in catching and Houston 14th.
The Astros are ranked last at first base in defense and Boston is fourth. At short and second Boston enjoys a smaller advantage, but still an advantage. Either as a group or with the major performers at those positions. Where Houston has a slight edge is with Rafael Devers and Houston’s Alex Bregman. Bregman is ahead of Devers, but both are negative in UZR/150.
The outfield for Boston is exceptional. Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley are about as good as it gets. In left field, both teams are metric close with Houston slightly ahead on metrics scorecard. What Boston does have is balanced defense with Devers being the only real defensive issue and Boston will undoubtedly substitute late in games for Devers if they have a lead.
EDGE: Boston
WHO WILL WIN?
As a Boston fan, one must hope and the team did get the division title with 93 wins. Boston certainly went on winning streaks and losing streaks, but so did Houston with a miserable 11-17 August where they were outscored. That, however, was addressed with the acquisition of Verlander. Houston has fewer variables in the rotation.
The bullpen for Boston is a big plus with Kimbrel and Price. The bad news is that when Price comes in it is probably an early exit for a starter. If Boston can consistently get to Kimbrel that means they have a chance.
Managerial issue means little. John Farrell managed well enough considering the loss of key players. Hinch had only one issue and that was getting the best record. So, trial by fire certainly goes to Farrell and the Red Sox who had to fend off the Yankees.
Next: Red Sox Strut: Devers and Sale
The Houston offense is scary, frightening, relentless, etc., etc. This team is very Red Sox like – at least previous Red Sox teams – in the way their batting order just keeps on coming at you. There seems to be no real rest for a pitcher facing Houston as they hit for both average and power. A very impressive team.
FINAL: Houston in four games