Red Sox: Five keys to a successful 2017 MLB postseason

With just 2 weeks left to go in the 2017 season, we take a look at what needs to go right for these Red Sox as they head into October.

Twelve games are all that’s left between the Boston Red Sox and postseason play for the second consecutive year. As it stands, with their three-game lead over the New York Yankees in the AL East and a magic number of 10, the 2017 Red Sox look likely to defend their division crown by seasons end.

This year, John Farrell‘s men have gone about their business far differently than they did when they took home the division title 12 months prior. While the 2016 edition of Boston’s team smashed their way to 93 wins and a league-high 878 runs scored, this year’s group lacked such a punch and relied on their opportunistic base running, the bullpen, and a powerful 1-2 punch in the starting rotation to put themselves in such an enviable position.

As October draws closer, it’s fair to see the Red Sox as the lesser of the three AL division winners. With the Indians high off their historic 22 game win streak and the Astros late August addition of Justin Verlander, it would seem as though the Red Sox will be the overlooked team.

However, while the two teams that stand between Boston and the American League crown are wildly talented and carry deep rosters in their own rights, we’re here today to make a case for why the Red Sox should be the team to look out for in the postseason and what needs to happen for  this group to make a deep run into October.

Chris Sale

When Dave Dombrowski went out and acquired LHP Chris Sale from the Chicago White Sox last offseason, the goal was to bring in a bonafide ace and annual Cy Young contender to a rotation already flush with talent and create a three-headed monster in Rick Porcello, David Price, and Sale.

While the three-headed monster part of the plan didn’t exactly pan out, Sale has been as good – if not better – than advertised since arriving from Chicago. With just 2-3 starts left in his first full season with the Red Sox, Sale has put together statistics of:

• 16-7 record
• 2.86 ERA
• .964 WHIP
• 287 Ks in 201.1 IP
• 2.31 FIP
• 12.8 K/9
• 158 ERA+
• 5.7 bWAR

For the Red Sox to make a deep push in the postseason, Sale needs to remain the dominating force he’s been all season long. While he’s had his hiccups since the beginning of August, Sale is still set to become the first AL pitcher with 300+ Ks since Pedro in 2000 and to finish 1 or 2 in the AL Cy Young award. We should feel more than confident in his chances when facing any opponent this October. He’s been that good.

Drew Pomeranz

While Dave Dombrowski’s vision of a three-headed monster leading the rotation failed to materialize, he still wound up with a two-headed beast with the emergence of Drew Pomeranz atop of the starting staff.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the season for the 2017 Red Sox is how dominant Pomeranz has been behind Sale for this team. When he first arrived from San Diego, many fans were understandably down on Pomeranz for his average performances (4.59 ERA in 13 GS),  injury woes, and the price it took to acquire such an uninspiring piece in the form of then-18-year-old pitcher Anderson Espinoza.

Since the beginning of 2017 though, the entire narrative for Pomeranz has changed. He has become a force in the rotation while routinely tossing 6 innings of 1-2 run ball and giving the Red Sox a chance to win nearly every time he takes the mound.

While he’s no Sale, Kluber, or Verlander in that he’ll l carve up a lineup batters 1-9, Pomeranz lends a more than steady hand at the No. 2 spot in the rotation. On the season he’s posted statistics of:

• 16-5 record
• 3.28 ERA in 159.1 IP
• 138 ERA+
• 3.82 FIP
• 3.5 bWAR

With two 16-game winners leading the pack, the Red Sox have reliable options to hand the ball to at the start of any postseason series. If Boston has the opportunity to get the ball to their top starters 4-5 times in a 5 or 7 game series their chances of advancing greatly improve. Sale and Pomeranz have both been phenomenal so far this year and at this point, there’s no reason to doubt them when crunch time comes.

If we had to pinpoint the biggest strength of the 2017 Red Sox it would undoubtedly have to be their bullpen. Spearheaded by the historically great Craig Kimbrel and now with Addison Reed and Carson Smith in tow, the Sox armada of late innings arms has only improved and been restocked as the season’s gone on.

Boston has the second-best bullpen in baseball with a 3.12 ERA that ranks behind only that of Cleveland’s 2.77 ERA. Overall, the back end owns a record of 26-14, have struck out 520 batters in 482 innings, and have held opponents to just a .226 batting average.

While the group has excelled as a collective, Kimbrel has been the headliner among many outstanding performances. In 64 IP this year Kimbrel has posted:

• 120 Ks(!!!!)
• 1.41 ERA
• 323 ERA+(!!!!)
• 1.22 FIP
• 0.672 WHIP
• 16.9 K/9

Bullpens have become a major determinant of success when it comes to the fickle nature of playoff baseball. With that in mind, the Red Sox are poised to come out on top if they find themselves in tight contests through the late innings. Behind an innings 7-9 combination of Smith/Kelly, Reed, and Kimbrel, other teams in October should certainly start to sweat if they find themselves trailing after six innings.

When it comes to reliable rookie performances, the Red Sox are no such strangers. Since 2013, the Sox have been awarded the good fortune of having an impressively deep farm system. In doing so they have routinely called up some of their top prospects in recent years who in turn have provided valuable contributions to the big league ball club when needed.

Looking back in time, including this year, the Red Sox have called up their top prospect(s) in 4 of the previous 5 seasons:

• 2013: Jackie Bradley Jr. and Xander Bogaerts
• 2014: Mookie Betts
• 2016: Andrew Benintendi & Yoan Moncada
• 2017: Rafael Devers

Considering five of those players account for 55% of the starting lineup and Moncada was used as the center piece in the trade for Sale, Boston’s farm system has done an outstanding job at developing major league ready talent.

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This year, with two rookies in the everyday lineup in Benintendi and Devers, the Red Sox will once again be leaning heavily on their youth as they push into October.

With Benintendi being in the everyday lineup since Opening Day, the Red Sox can feel confident in knowing they can rely on his performance at the top or in the middle of the lineup come postseason time. Devers on the other hand, as a less polished and much younger rookie (20 yrs old vs. Benny at 23 yrs old), will still be prone to growing pains as he develops at the major league level.

So far though, both players have shown they’re more than capable of handling major league pitching. While Benintendi gave us a glimpse of his promise in 34 games last year and was possibly the teams best hitter in their three-game sweep at the hands of the Tribe in 2016, he’s grown into an incredibly valuable player to this team in just a years time. Over the course of his first full season, Benintendi has been able to post numbers of:

• .277 AVG
• 19 HR
• 19 SB
• 25 2B
• 87 RBI
• .789 OPS
• 106 OPS+
• 2.4 WAR

Devers meanwhile, in his first 47 games at the major league level, has shown the power that makes many believe he’ll be a force in the middle of the Red Sox lineup for years to come. In his first taste of major league pitching, Devers has posted:

• .289 AVG
• .825 OPS
• 114 OPS+
• 8 HR
• 10 2B
• 21 RBI

For the Red Sox to play deep into October, both Benintendi and Devers will need to be a big piece of the puzzle. They’ve both shown already that they can be counted on to provide huge hits for this team when needed and the Red Sox should feel very confident in leaning on these two young players when the game is on the line.

Lastly, the final key to the Red Sox success this fall will be in which bench pieces they can count on to provide valuable pinch hit at-bats, defensive replacements, and base running needs when called upon. As we head into these final two weeks, the only locks to make the postseason bench would be Chris Young, Eduardo Nunez, Sandy Leon, and Brock Holt.

While Young has been adequate as the team’s fourth outfielder this year, he hasn’t been the masher of left-handed pitching this year as he has in years past. Nunez has been a revelation since coming over from San Franciso as he has provided power, speed, and versatility across the board. Leon has split time at catcher but up to this point has lost the starting catching job to hot hitting Christian Vazquez. Holt, much like Nunez, provides versatility but has seen injuries limit his contributions and playing time.

Not to say that Young, Leon, and Holt aren’t valuable bench pieces, but after the starting 9, this team’s roster depth takes a big dip. After these aforementioned names, who else will make the postseason roster? Davis for his base stealing ability? Marrero for his defensive prowess? Lin for his versatility (while possibly being redundant due to Nunez, Holt, and Marrero)? Sam Travis as a right-handed bat option? The rest of the bunch remains unclear.

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In these postseason games the Sox will find themselves in, they’ll no doubt be counting on their bench players to perform various roles. For success to be found, the bench will have to be a source of reliability and act as a safety cushion in crunch time when the late inning game of chess will take place between managers.