Red Sox Predictions: Players in danger of being left off postseason roster
The Boston Red Sox stand an excellent chance of making the playoffs, yet not all their regular players are locks to make the postseason roster.
The roster that the Boston Red Sox take with them into the postseason won’t be the same as the one they opened the regular season with. That much should be obvious, given that the team has added players through trades and internal promotion who have gone on to become vital to their success.
There are also a handful of players on this team once considered to be key cogs who are no longer locks to make the postseason roster. It would have seemed ridiculous to suggest back in April that any of these players should be left behind while their teammates go to battle on the October stage. A lot can change in six months to change that perception.
This list includes players with All-Star appearances or prestigious season awards on their resumes. They each have great track records but in a “what have you done for me lately” league their disappointing seasons leave us wondering if they would be a liability in the postseason.
Health is always the wild card when constructing a postseason roster. For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll assume every potential option for a roster spot will be available so that our choices to exclude from the roster are based on performance rather than injury status.
We know what these players are capable of, yet each will need to finish the season strong to warrant a spot on the postseason roster.
Xander Bogaerts
Bogaerts was expected to be part of the young core the Red Sox hoped to build around, part of Boston’s own version of the Killer B’s. After watching him blossom into one of the top young shortstops in the game over the past couple of seasons, the 24-year old has hit a sudden roadblock in his career.
He started the season hot at the plate and was arguably the best hitter in the league during the month of May when he hit .351 with a .949 OPS. The power surge that he experienced last season had mysteriously vanished, yet there were few complaints when Bogaerts was in the thick of the batting title race.
The season went downhill in a hurry for Bogaerts in July when he scuffled through the worst month he has produced since his rookie year. He’s hitting .200 with a .573 OPS over 180 at-bats since the break. That OPS is next to last in the American League among hitter with 175+ plate appearances since the break, while the batting average put him ahead of only a half dozen other hitters over that span.
If Bogaerts isn’t hitting, he’s of no use to the Red Sox. It’s not as if he can make up for his deficiencies at the plate with his glove. Bogaerts has produced -11 defensive runs saved, which ranks last among major league shortstops.
Combine his poor defensive play with the drastic drop in production at the plate and a case can be made for Bogaerts being the worst position player in the league in the second half.
Brock Holt
It’s a shame to have to put Holt on this list because he’s become such a fan favorite over the last few years. The catchy Brock Star nickname, the flowing hair and his unselfish nature that allows him to contribute in any capacity the team asks of him are all reasons to be rooting for Holt.
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Unfortunately, the production just hasn’t been there this year. It’s not entirely his fault. Holt missed the majority of the season with concussion symptoms and vertigo. His return to the team was a great story after his career appeared to be in jeopardy, but Holt hasn’t been able to find his swing since being activated from the disabled list in mid-July.
Holt is hitting a meager .174/.283/.211 with zero home runs and only four RBI over 109 at-bats this season. He’s essentially an automatic out, which the Red Sox can’t afford in the postseason.
His versatility still provides some value, although the Red Sox may not need it. If Bogaerts is indeed left off the roster then Eduardo Nunez would presumably be the primary shortstop. If Bogaerts plays then Nunez may bounce around to a few different spots in the infield. There’s no doubt Nunez will play, as Boston needs his bat in the lineup. If he isn’t locked into a single position then he’ll essentially be a better version of what the Red Sox would get with super-utility man Holt.
Chris Young
Young was put on this team to do one thing and one thing only – mash left-handed pitching. It’s what he’s done his entire career and he did a solid job of filling that role last year in his first season in Boston.
Not this year though. Young has hit a shockingly low .187 with a .566 OPS against lefties this season. He hasn’t hit well at home or on the road and has been significantly worse overall in the second half of the season.
Young has been passable against right-handed pitching, although it’s not as if he’ll displace any of the starting outfielders in a playoff game. He’s produced -6 defensive runs saved in only 37 games in left field, so he’s clearly not an option as a defensive replacement. His defensive limitations make him a poor option as the team’s fourth outfielder, a role likely to be filled by newcomer Rajai Davis. At least the speedy Davis can be a pinch-runner off the bench to fill the Dave Roberts role.
CY should have been the right-handed power bat off the bench to pinch-hit against a tough lefty, but he can no longer be counted on in that role. Boston would be better off giving his roster spot to Sam Travis, who has hit a blistering .394 with a 1.033 OPS in limited time against lefties at the big league level. Travis can platoon at first base with Mitch Moreland or be used as a pinch-hitter when the opposing team calls on a lefty reliever. If the 24-year old prospect continues to thrive in that role then it negates the need for Young.
Hanley Ramirez
Speaking of hitters who have been a massive disappointment against lefties, Ramirez has been almost as abysmal against southpaws as Young.
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Hanley is hitting .191 with a .724 OPS against lefties. The original plan was to bench Moreland against left-handed starters to allow Ramirez to play first base and Young to DH. While Moreland still doesn’t hit lefties well, the plan backfired when both Ramirez and Young proved to be even worse.
Ramirez is having a down season regardless of which hand the opposing pitcher throws from but keeping him off the postseason roster entirely is a long shot. He still leads the Red Sox in home runs, so a team that ranks last in the league in that category can’t afford to exclude him entirely.
We only have a small sample size to analyze in September, but so far it’s been his worst month. Ramirez is hitting .194/.219/.323 over his last 31 at-bats. At a time he should be fighting for his roster spot, Hanley is falling apart.
If Ramirez doesn’t turn things around in a hurry then he is at risk of losing playing time. If he’s not hitting lefties the Red Sox would be better off leaving Moreland at first base to capitalize on his stellar defense. They could use Travis as the DH, or plug Nunez in that spot if he’s not filling in for Bogaerts.
Rick Porcello
The Jekyll and Hyde routine is wearing thin for Porcello. Red Sox fans immediately labeled him a bust after he struggled during his first season in Boston, only for the right-hander to bounce back with a Cy Young campaign last year. Now his production has somehow been worse than it was in his dismal 2015 season.
Porcello took the loss in his last outing to become the first AL pitcher since 1990 to lose 17+ games for a team with a winning record. A year after leading the league in wins, Porcello is on pace to finish with the most losses. Some of it can be chalked up to a drop in run support, although Porcello clearly hasn’t pitched as well this season.
Last year’s surprise breakout was built on his impeccable control. Porcello dropped his walk rate to a career-low 1.3 BB/9 and led the majors with a 5.91 K/BB ratio. This year those numbers have drifted back toward his career norm and he’s getting hammered for it.
Instead of painting the corners, Porcello is either missing wide out of the strike zone or catching too much of the plate. The former scenario explains his uptick in walks, while the latter has resulted in a career-high 35 home runs. That figure tops his previous career-high in homers allowed by double digits and the season isn’t over yet!
The Red Sox will only need four starters in the postseason. Chris Sale and Drew Pomeranz are the two locks to lead the rotation, while Doug Fister‘s recent success makes him worthy of the No. 3 spot. That means the final spot in the rotation boils down to Porcello or Eduardo Rodriguez. Perhaps the Red Sox will stick with Porcello simply because they want to avoid having three lefties in the rotation. It’s not as if E-Rod has been lighting it up lately either.
If Porcello is in the postseason rotation, it’s hard to feel confident with him on the mound. His postseason track record is limited but hasn’t been pretty. He was lit up for five runs over 4 1/3 innings in the ALDS against the Cleveland Indians last year. Overall he owns a 5.66 ERA in nine postseason appearances, including three starts.
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As is the case with each of the players we’ve reviewed, if Porcello makes the postseason roster it won’t be because he’s earned it. His inclusion would be due to a lack of options.