Red Sox September Standings Watch: Clinging to AL East lead

The Boston Red Sox are clinging to a tight lead in the AL East. Here’s how their outlook for making the postseason appears down the stretch.

Wake me up when September ends. That seems to be the mentality of the Boston Red Sox entering the last full month of the season. While many of us were out having a barbeque over Labor Day weekend, the Red Sox were busy getting smoked.

The Red Sox dropped three out of four in the Bronx, allowing the New York Yankees to creep closer in the division race. Boston’s bats couldn’t bunt their way past the balky knee of C.C. Sabathia to open the series. At least they could count on Doug Fister, arguably their best starter since July 31, to even things up with a win Friday night.

A three-run homer by Matt Holliday knocked Drew Pomeranz out of the game in the sixth inning of Saturday’s game. It was the lefty’s first loss since June 11. He hadn’t allowed 4+ runs in a start since July 14… against the Yankees.

Boston had to feel good about their chances to split the series with Chris Sale taking the mound on Sunday. Nope. The ace of the staff couldn’t make it out of the fifth inning after allowing three solo homers.

A return home to Fenway Park was supposed to make the Red Sox quickly forget about that ugly trip to the Bronx. They would start the week with a Labor Day game against a Blue Jays team they recently swept in Toronto. Unfortunately, Fenway hasn’t been kind to Rick Porcello this year. He was blasted for seven runs, inflating his ERA at home to 5.38 this season.

In the wake of a disappointing holiday weekend, where do the Red Sox stand in their quest for the postseason?

AL East Standings

Despite losing four of their last five games, including three straight, the Red Sox are still clinging to a 2.5 game lead over the Yankees in the division race.

New York’s recent surge has come mostly at Boston’s expense. Much of the damage done during the beating in the Bronx came from the bat of Gary Sanchez, who went 7-for-18 with a home run and four RBI in the series. The Yankees catcher shouldn’t have been eligible to play after being hit with a four-game suspension for his role in the brawl with the Detroit Tigers last week. The punishment handed out by former Yankees manager Joe Torre was lenient, to say the least. Allowing for the punishment to be delayed until after the Red Sox left town is almost as disgraceful as Sanchez appealing the decision. What argument could he possibly have for sucker punching Miguel Cabrera while he was on the ground?

The Baltimore Orioles are quietly sneaking back into the race after winning seven of their last ten games, including a three-game sweep in Boston. A resurgence from Manny Machado, who is hitting .338 with a .957 OPS and 12 home runs since the break, has been the biggest factor in their second half success. Their early season woes may have left them too far back to make a comeback at this point, but the O’s are a threat to make the postseason.

A few short weeks ago it seemed as though the Red Sox were looking over their shoulders at a lurking Tampa Bay Rays team. Now the Rays have fallen below .500 and out of the division race. Tampa Bay is last in the league in most offensive categories, including runs scored, in the second half.

The Blue Jays are already looking ahead to 2018, but with five games left against the Red Sox, they are still in a position to play the spoiler role.

Wild Card

Holding off the Yankees in the division race probably won’t mean keeping New York out of the postseason. The Yankees have a three-game cushion for the top Wild Card spot, giving them an 89.5 percent chance of making the postseason.

At least that means that the Red Sox are almost certain to make the playoffs even if they do slip up and allow the Yankees to pass them over the next few weeks. Even a collapse reminiscent of 2011 may not be enough to keep them out of October now that there are two Wild Card spots.

The surprising Minnesota Twins remain in the second spot, with not even the injury to slugger Miguel Sano knocking them out of the race.

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They’ll face stiff competition for that final playoff spot from a Los Angeles Angels team that added Justin Upton and Brandon Phillips to the lineup through August waiver deals. The Angels are only half a game out and eager to get Mike Trout his first postseason experience since 2014.

Baltimore may be too far behind Boston in the AL East, but at only 1.5 games back in the Wild Card hunt they still have a fair shot at the postseason. While finding a starter they could trust in a one-game playoff would be a problem, the power bats in their lineup are always dangerous.

The Rangers are only two games back despite trading away ace Yu Darvish before the deadline. The loss of Adrian Beltre to a hamstring injury could be the nail in the coffin to their playoff hopes.

The Seattle Mariners made some moves with the intent of making a late push, but it’s hard to take them seriously as a postseason contender unless they get James Paxton back from the disabled list.

Playoff Seeding

The Red Sox enter the day with a record of 77-61, which trails the other two division leaders in the American League.

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The current standings would pit Boston against the Cleveland Indians (81-56) in the ALDS. We all recall how well that worked out for the Red Sox last year when home-field advantage wasn’t on their side. The Tribe’s record has surprisingly been better on the road this year, although I wouldn’t take that as a sign the Red Sox are better off beginning a series with them in Cleveland.

A 4.5 game deficit is hardly insurmountable, so there’s still time for Boston to claim home-field advantage in the first round. However, given Chris Sale’s well-documented struggles against the Indians, the Red Sox may be more inclined to go through Houston. Cleveland trails the Astros by only three games, making it more likely the Indians claim the top seed than Boston passing them for second place.

Catching Houston (84-53) seems like a long shot for Boston. The one hope they do have of clinching home-field until the World Series is that the Astros have to finish the regular season with a trip to Fenway. If the Red Sox are within striking distance by that point, expect a playoff atmosphere for that four-game series.

On the other hand, if the Astros have already clinched home-field by that point, we can expect that they will rest some players in the final series of the season. That would make it easier for the Red Sox to pad their win total in an attempt to overtake Cleveland for the second seed.