Red Sox: Andrew Benintendi, MY rookie of the year

Boston Red Sox rookie Andrew Benintendi came into this year with high expectations. The former first round pick was ranked the number one prospect in baseball. Has he lived up to the hype?

It would be easy to just write “yes” and leave this post at that but the Red Sox rookie has already done too much in his young career to merit such a simple post. Andrew Benintendi came into the 2017 season with an unbelievable amount of pressure. He was ranked the top prospect in baseball by Baseball America and before the season had even started, there were calls for him to win Rookie of the Year.

He deserved every bit of the expectations and praise heaped on him. After all, he was electric in his limited playing time in 2016. Called up on Aug 2nd, Benintendi was one of the best Red Sox players down the stretch. In just over 100 PAs, he slashed .295/.359 /476 with 2 home runs. In the post season he went 3/9 with a double and hit a home run in his first at bat.

He also made one of the greatest catches you’ll ever see at Tropicana Field.

That was in his 19th MLB game. Early on in his career, Benintendi is already showing us he is special. There were, however, questions coming into the year about how Benintendi would handle his first full season in Boston. Would the pressure get to him?

As we head into the last month of the regular season for the Red Sox, it looks like he’s been able to handle the pressure.

Benintendi came out of the gate strong. He was already making headlines at spring training, and was the Red Sox opening day starter in left field. At 22 years and 271 days old, Benny was actually the youngest opening day starter in left since Carl Yastrzemski in 1962.

Benny entered the All Star break slashing .279/.357/.446 with 12 HRs, 51 RBIs, and 9 stolen bases. The home run power was an unexpected addition to his game, a side effect of a rigorous offseason routine.

His workout video has been getting a lot of use on twitter this season, and has inspired the second best nickname on the team. For a kid who hit 20 home runs in his entire minor league career, hitting 12 in the first half of his rookie season definitely earns him the name “Benny Biceps.”

In addition to the home runs, Benny Biceps proved that he could come through when it mattered most. He hit his first career walk off against the Phillies in the 12th inning of a 3-3 game on June 13th.

Almost a month later he would draw a bases loaded walk against the Yankees in the bottom of the 9th for his second walk off victory in 2 months.

The second half has not been as kind. Going into the weekend’s series with the Yankees, Benintendi has been slashing .267/.350/.416 with 6 HRs, 21RBIs, and 9 stolen bases.

The young star struggled the month of July, going .222/.320/.322, 2HRs and 0 stolen bases. He did manage 14 RBIs despite those struggles. He was benched for 2 games at the start of August in hopes that some time off might clear his head.

It looks like the benching worked. August was by far Benny’s best month as a professional. He’s got a .333/.423/.550 line, 9 stolen bases and 6 HRs. His blistering month has bumped him up to the 3rd most valuable position player on the Red Sox according to WAR.

He trails only 2016 MVP runner-up Mookie Betts (5.1) and All-Star CF Jackie Bradley Jr (2.9). At 2.3 wins above replacement, Benny has a serious shot at over taking Jackie, especially if he struggles to return from his hand injury.

Benny is also sitting on 18 home runs and 18 stolen bases; with a whole month left to play it seems inevitable that he makes it into the 20/20 club this year.

Those power/speed numbers put him in some pretty good company. Five of those players would go on to be All-Stars, with 2 of them (Harper and Trout) winning MVPs. Trout and Harper both won the Rookie of the Year in their respective rookie seasons. Danny Espinosa is the only player on that list to not finish in at least the top 4 in the ROY voting.

According to baseball-reference.com’s Play Index, only Mike Trout and Chris Young have had 25 HRs and 25 SBs in their rookie seasons. If Andrew Benintendi can add 7 more HRs & stolen bases in his last 28 games he will be joining quite the exclusive club. With 6 HRs and 8 SBs in his last 24 games, that does not seem out of grasp for the young outfielder.

Does Andrew Benintendi have a shot at the Rookie of the Year for the Red Sox?

Before we get into the nitty gritty of this closer-than-it-seems ROY race, I’m going to say one thing. You have to judge Benny’s season on its own merit. Just because one team has a literal monster who hit 30 home runs in half a season doesn’t mean this race is as cut and dry as some people think. Benintendi has had a spectacular rookie season, despite some ups and downs, and deserves the same consideration as anyone.

Let’s say Benintendi’s insane tear continues. The Red Sox have two more series against both the Rays and the Blue Jays, and one each with the Athletics and the Reds. There’s no such thing as an easy baseball game, but right now three of those teams are in the bottom of their divisions, and the Rays are in 4th place.

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Over Benny’s last 28 games he’s hitting .315/.422/.504 with 6 home runs and 9 stolen bases. That average is being dragged down by the tail end of July before his benching, so let’s say his September will be more like his August than his July.

I think it’s reasonable to project him with a .310/.380/.580 line or so for September. Add in another 7 HRs and 9 SBs and he finishes 2017 with 25 HRs, 25 SBs, and a .281/.359/.460 line for the season. A well above average season for any player, let alone a rookie.

On top of his prowess at the plate, Benintendi has had a good year in the field. He’s mastered playing in front of the Green Monster. He plays balls of that wall so well you would think he’s been there for 15 years.

Away from the park he’s been outstanding as well. The Red Sox outfield is populated by great defensive players and Benny is no slouch. We’re spoiled getting to watch plays like this on the regular.

If you want to put some numbers to it Benny has a combined (LF & CF) fielding percentage of .982 with 4 errors on the year. He also has 6 defensive runs saved which puts him squarely in the “above average” category.

While his .982 fielding percentage is slightly below the league average, it’s significantly better than most Red Sox left fielders in recent memory. People like to talk about the awful black hole at 3B, but after Manny Ramirez was sent to LA, left field was almost just as bad.

Brock Holt, Hanley Ramirez, Jonny Gomes, Daniel Nava, Carl Crawford, and Jason Bay all tried to tame the monster, and almost no one handled it as well as Benny has this season. Hanley in particular was terrible: a .969 fielding percentage with -19(!) defensive runs saved.

Thank you Benny for saving us from that.

Okay, so assuming Benny keeps pace, he’s off to a great rookie season. Would it be impressive enough to take home the ROY trophy?