Red Sox: Andrew Benintendi, MY rookie of the year

As we head into the last month of the regular season for the Red Sox, it looks like he’s been able to handle the pressure.

Benintendi came out of the gate strong. He was already making headlines at spring training, and was the Red Sox opening day starter in left field. At 22 years and 271 days old, Benny was actually the youngest opening day starter in left since Carl Yastrzemski in 1962.

Benny entered the All Star break slashing .279/.357/.446 with 12 HRs, 51 RBIs, and 9 stolen bases. The home run power was an unexpected addition to his game, a side effect of a rigorous offseason routine.

His workout video has been getting a lot of use on twitter this season, and has inspired the second best nickname on the team. For a kid who hit 20 home runs in his entire minor league career, hitting 12 in the first half of his rookie season definitely earns him the name “Benny Biceps.”

In addition to the home runs, Benny Biceps proved that he could come through when it mattered most. He hit his first career walk off against the Phillies in the 12th inning of a 3-3 game on June 13th.

Almost a month later he would draw a bases loaded walk against the Yankees in the bottom of the 9th for his second walk off victory in 2 months.

The second half has not been as kind. Going into the weekend’s series with the Yankees, Benintendi has been slashing .267/.350/.416 with 6 HRs, 21RBIs, and 9 stolen bases.

The young star struggled the month of July, going .222/.320/.322, 2HRs and 0 stolen bases. He did manage 14 RBIs despite those struggles. He was benched for 2 games at the start of August in hopes that some time off might clear his head.

It looks like the benching worked. August was by far Benny’s best month as a professional. He’s got a .333/.423/.550 line, 9 stolen bases and 6 HRs. His blistering month has bumped him up to the 3rd most valuable position player on the Red Sox according to WAR.

He trails only 2016 MVP runner-up Mookie Betts (5.1) and All-Star CF Jackie Bradley Jr (2.9). At 2.3 wins above replacement, Benny has a serious shot at over taking Jackie, especially if he struggles to return from his hand injury.

Benny is also sitting on 18 home runs and 18 stolen bases; with a whole month left to play it seems inevitable that he makes it into the 20/20 club this year.

Those power/speed numbers put him in some pretty good company. Five of those players would go on to be All-Stars, with 2 of them (Harper and Trout) winning MVPs. Trout and Harper both won the Rookie of the Year in their respective rookie seasons. Danny Espinosa is the only player on that list to not finish in at least the top 4 in the ROY voting.

According to baseball-reference.com’s Play Index, only Mike Trout and Chris Young have had 25 HRs and 25 SBs in their rookie seasons. If Andrew Benintendi can add 7 more HRs & stolen bases in his last 28 games he will be joining quite the exclusive club. With 6 HRs and 8 SBs in his last 24 games, that does not seem out of grasp for the young outfielder.

Does Andrew Benintendi have a shot at the Rookie of the Year for the Red Sox?

Before we get into the nitty gritty of this closer-than-it-seems ROY race, I’m going to say one thing. You have to judge Benny’s season on its own merit. Just because one team has a literal monster who hit 30 home runs in half a season doesn’t mean this race is as cut and dry as some people think. Benintendi has had a spectacular rookie season, despite some ups and downs, and deserves the same consideration as anyone.

Let’s say Benintendi’s insane tear continues. The Red Sox have two more series against both the Rays and the Blue Jays, and one each with the Athletics and the Reds. There’s no such thing as an easy baseball game, but right now three of those teams are in the bottom of their divisions, and the Rays are in 4th place.

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Over Benny’s last 28 games he’s hitting .315/.422/.504 with 6 home runs and 9 stolen bases. That average is being dragged down by the tail end of July before his benching, so let’s say his September will be more like his August than his July.

I think it’s reasonable to project him with a .310/.380/.580 line or so for September. Add in another 7 HRs and 9 SBs and he finishes 2017 with 25 HRs, 25 SBs, and a .281/.359/.460 line for the season. A well above average season for any player, let alone a rookie.

On top of his prowess at the plate, Benintendi has had a good year in the field. He’s mastered playing in front of the Green Monster. He plays balls of that wall so well you would think he’s been there for 15 years.

Away from the park he’s been outstanding as well. The Red Sox outfield is populated by great defensive players and Benny is no slouch. We’re spoiled getting to watch plays like this on the regular.

If you want to put some numbers to it Benny has a combined (LF & CF) fielding percentage of .982 with 4 errors on the year. He also has 6 defensive runs saved which puts him squarely in the “above average” category.

While his .982 fielding percentage is slightly below the league average, it’s significantly better than most Red Sox left fielders in recent memory. People like to talk about the awful black hole at 3B, but after Manny Ramirez was sent to LA, left field was almost just as bad.

Brock Holt, Hanley Ramirez, Jonny Gomes, Daniel Nava, Carl Crawford, and Jason Bay all tried to tame the monster, and almost no one handled it as well as Benny has this season. Hanley in particular was terrible: a .969 fielding percentage with -19(!) defensive runs saved.

Thank you Benny for saving us from that.

Okay, so assuming Benny keeps pace, he’s off to a great rookie season. Would it be impressive enough to take home the ROY trophy?

Let’s compare him to the last Red Sox player to win that honor: Dustin Pedroia.

Pedey’s rookie season saw him slash .317/.380/.442 with 8 HRs and 7 SBs. Better average, but Benny’s got him beat on the power side. Pedey tacked on a strong showing in the postseason that year, slashing .283/.348/.483 with 2 HRs on the way to a Red Sox World Series win.

Pedroia’s a great comparison to Benny’s ROY campaign. He didn’t lead the league in home runs, hits, or RBIs. He didn’t turn in six straight months of dominance: he was batting .182 at the end of April.

And despite all that, he still won the ROY by a landslide. He finished with 24 out of 28 first place votes.

While there are a few qualified players gunning for this year’s ROY, it has mostly been a two man race all season. It looked like Yankee’s star Aaron Judge was going to run away with the record when he hit 30 home runs before the break.

However, the second half has not been so kind to Judge. Since July 14th he’s slashed .181/.342/.349 with 7HRs, bringing his season line down from .329/.448/.691 to a mere .279/.412/.578. He’s been benched, he’s been moved down the lineup, and he’s collected one very bad MLB record.

He’s still leading Benny is a lot of stats, but his grip on the top spot is slipping. Benintendi is preparing to over take him in a few statistics. He’s only ahead by 9 RBIs (82-73), 1 point of batting average (.279-.278), and has 91 more strikeouts (178-87).

Benny already has the edge with 18 SBs to Judge’s 7, and Benny has been caught one time less than Judge. Yes, Judge will finish the season with more home runs than Benintendi (and most of the American League), but he’s also likely to finish the season leading in strikeouts.

As Judge continues to skid, the media is heaping more and more pressure on his back. Putting the pressure of missing the playoffs on Judge might not be the best thing to get his bat going again. If the Yankees do in fact miss out on October baseball and Benny Biceps has a Pedroia like October, a lot of voters minds could be changed.

I firmly believe that Benintendi has been the best rookie in the MLB this season. He’s more versatile than Judge, has been more consistent than Judge, and has not disappeared for half of the season like Judge. If the season ended today, I would take Benny over Judge 100 times out of 100.

Next: Red Sox: Bryce Brentz, Rusney Castillo named 2017 IL All-Stars

There’s no disputing that Judge will get first place votes in November. But if he continues this slide and Benny continuous to soar, this race is not over. Don’t let anyone tell you the ROY is locked up; this race is just getting interesting.

Stats up to date as of Aug 31.