Red Sox Standings Watch: Heading into All-Star break in first place
The Boston Red Sox have reached the unofficial halfway point of the regular season leading the American League East division.
The MLB All-Star break has arrived, with the Boston Red Sox on top of the AL East division with a 50-39 record. Boston has the second highest win total and winning percentage in the American League, trailing only the Houston Astros.
Boston limps into the break having dropped four of their last five games. A three city tour to end the unofficial first half of the season wrapped up with a frustrating series in Tampa Bay, but the Red Sox still managed to go 6-4 on the trip.
The 50 road games that the Red Sox have played ties them for the most in the American League. That leaves them with a favorable second half schedule. Boston will play 42 of their remaining 73 games at Fenway Park, where they own a .641 winning percentage.
The Red Sox will send three players to Miami for the All-Star Game. Mookie Betts, selected as a reserve, will start in place of the injured Mike Trout. Cy Young front-runner Chris Sale has earned the start for the AL squad for the second consecutive year. If the team holds a lead at the end of the game they would be wise to hand the ball to Craig Kimbrel to close it out.
A trio of All-Stars and a relatively comfortable division lead. Not a bad way to enter the break.
AL East Standings
Despite a bit of a stumble heading into the break, Boston remains in the driver’s seat in the AL East.
AL East standings entering the All-Star break. pic.twitter.com/cDBH2Nrfgr
— Sean Penney (@spenney83) July 10, 2017
The Red Sox have a 3.5 game lead over the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. The Bronx Bombers are only two games back in the loss column, while the Rays trail by four losses.
Boston’s +65 run differential is fourth in the AL, while the +98 differential owned by the Yankees suggests they have played better than their record reflects. The Red Sox have been successful in close games, in part because of a bullpen that has produced the second best ERA in the league.
Red Sox relievers have converted 75.76 of save opportunities, blowing only eight saves this season. Kimbrel has been as dominant as any closer in the game, converting 23 of 25 save chances. The Yankees have blown more than twice as many leads, converting only half of their save opportunities. Only the Texas Rangers bullpen has converted save opportunities at a lower rate in the AL.
Tampa Bay is quietly creeping back into the division race, winning four of their last six games to land in a virtual tie with New York for second place. Their 27 home wins ties them with Houston for the most in the league. However, 37 of their remaining 71 games will come on the road where they own a .454 winning percentage. The Rays may have slightly overachieved in the first half and will be hard-pressed to keep it up down the stretch of a road-heavy schedule.
Rising
Tampa Bay Rays
Raise your hand if you expected the Rays to be third in the league in home runs this late in the season. Even residents of the Tampa Bay area must be surprised by this.
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Logan Morrison leads the way with 24 homers, enough to rank fourth in the league and give credence to his criticism of being left out of the Home Run Derby. The 29-year old has already surpassed his career-high for home runs while producing a slugging percentage and OPS well above his normal rates. A delayed breakout or is a steep decline expected in the second half? LoMo has generally performed better in the second half over the last few seasons, so we can’t count out the possibility that he can kick it into an even higher gear.
Corey Dickerson has a well earned spot as the starting DH in the All-Star Game. He’s ninth in the league with a .312 batting average and tenth with a .903 OPS. He’s done his part to contribute toward the team’s impressive home run total, blasting 17 to enter the break in a tie for 18th in the league.
The Rays have power, but they are middle of the pack with a collective .257 batting average. Don’t expect that to change. Tampa Bay has two of the top eight and four of the top 27 hitters in strikeout percentage. All four of them strikeout at a rate of over 21 percent. This is a lineup filled with all-or-nothing swingers and their top home run hitters don’t have track records of being 30+ homer sluggers.
Falling
New York Yankees
The Yankees enter the break having lost seven of their last ten games. They can feel fortunate that Boston’s own stumbles last week prevented them from running away with the division, although it has allowed the Rays to gain ground.
New York has scored the second most runs in the league this season, yet it’s been a different story this month. The Yankees have scored 32 runs over their last eight games, putting them next to last in the league in July.
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We certainly can’t blame Aaron Judge for these offensive woes. He’s having an otherworldly rookie season and July has been no exception. His .357 batting average is the highest it has been in any month this season and he owns a 1.183 OPS this month. The problem has been his teammates aren’t getting on base in front of him. Judge has three homers this month but only four RBI.
Fellow rookie outfielder Clint Frazier is the only other Yankee with a batting average above .233 this month. The 22-year old has three homers, two triples and a double over his last seven games.
The Yankees have seven hitters with double-digit at-bats this month who are hitting below the Mendoza Line in July with an OPS of .531 or lower. Judge might still be in contention to win a Triple Crown, but he can’t keep the Yankees offense afloat by himself.
The pitching hasn’t been much better, with a 5.91 ERA that ranks 13th in the league this month. C.C. Sabathia couldn’t make it out of the third inning of his last start. Michael Pineda barely made it through three innings, coughing up five earned runs in the process.
The rotation’s struggles have put a heavy burden on a bullpen that is cracking under pressure. Dellin Betances was torched for five earned runs over his last four appearances and was tagged with a pair of losses.
The All-Star break couldn’t have come at a more opportune time for the Yankees. Few expected their young players to carry the team to their current record, leaving us to question if this is merely a blip on the radar or if they are regressing back toward initial projections.
Wild Card Standings
The two teams currently holding a Wild Card spot happen to reside in the AL East. The Yankees lead the Rays by mere percentage points for the first Wild Card.
AL Wild Card standings entering the All-Star break. pic.twitter.com/2Ceq5V8xZQ
— Sean Penney (@spenney83) July 10, 2017
Lurking a game behind them in the standings is a Minnesota Twins team that is starting to drift back toward the .500 mark. Only three AL teams have a worse run differential than the Twins (-60), suggesting what we all suspected – they are playing well over their heads.
Right behind them is a Kansas City Royals team in almost the opposite situation. They were expected to be good, got off to a terrible start that had them debating if they should be sellers at the trade deadline, only to turn it around over the last few weeks to salvage their season. The Royals have a winning record and are currently tied in the loss column with the Rays and Twins.
The Los Angeles Angels have lost seven of their last ten games, yet they are only three games out of a playoff spot. Many were ready to write them off when Mike Trout went down with torn ligaments in his thumb at the end of May. Six weeks later they are still hanging around the Wild Card hunt with their superstar outfielder expected to return on Friday.
The Texas Rangers are also only three games out of a playoff spot. Their +29 run differential suggests that their losing record may be a mirage. Texas should improve in the second half with a healthy Adrian Beltre and Cole Hamels.
Next: Mid-season state of the Red Sox
Boston is four games ahead of the Twins and Royals in the loss column. If the Yankees or Rays surge ahead of them in the second half, the Red Sox can be comforted by the edge they have over the rest of the Wild Card contenders.