Red Sox first half player and management grades
The Boston Red Sox finished the first 81 games in first place in the American League East. The following is my perspective on the grades.
The halfway point of the season and the Red Sox are showing they may well be a playoff team – that was certainly expected. Just where they finish will be the question going forward in the second half. Will it be a division title? Wild Card? First place for now.
The Red Sox pitching has been surprisingly solid with all the injuries to the staff. Losing Steven Wright kicked one block out of the rotation and then others fell by the injury wayside. Maybe coaches Carl Willis and Brian Bannister deserve some big time credit?
Where it has ground to a halt is on the offensive side. The loss of David Ortiz hurt the run production and maybe a stabilizing clubhouse presence? The Red Sox have floated around the middle of the American League in the offense for the first half and the power threat is minimal. No Aaron Judge or Edwin Encarnacion for Boston.
Maybe the offense will suddenly ignite in the second half, but when the Tampa Bay Rays hit far more home runs and score more runs than the Red Sox the world is truly upside down.
Starting Pitchers
Chris Sale – A+
A yearly contestant in the annual Cy Young Award and 2017 will be no different. Sale is as advertised and that is an ACE – in caps. The glue that holds the rotation together and it has been needed with the injuries that impacted the staff – bullpen and rotation. Ranked number one among the American League starters. BB/9 is second lowest in American League. 11-3 record and fWAR of 5.1.
The second best starter on the staff? Appears that way until he went down (again) with an injury. Ten starts and a 4-2 record with a 3.54 ERA. Seven of those starts were quality starts. The Red Sox were 7-3 in E-Rod’s starts. Only 24-years-old, he may win 15+ if he stays healthy. Will he be Jon Lester part II?
Drew Pomeranz – B
Just when you are 100% convinced Pomeranz needs to go he tosses a few solid games. I get it. He is never going to be mistaken for Sale, but Pomeranz does give you a very solid number four or five in the rotation if the Red Sox ever get a stabilized rotation – maybe even higher. 2.89 BB/9 and 9.86 K/9. HR/9 is now 1.18.
Rick Porcello – D
Porcello’s 2016 was an anomaly and that is clear based on 2017. Porcello has regressed to his 2015 season, but is he that bad? Probably not, but will be more like the Porcello that was with the Tigers. As with Pomeranz it is the long ball – both give up far too many. Porcello’s BABIP is .367 – Tops in AL. Looking for a positive? Porcello’s FIP is over a run lower than his ERA. 1.46 HR/9.
David Price – C-
A tough grade since Price is returning from a serious injury. That, however, should not be a total excuse for subpar pitching. Price is among the “leaders” in the American League with a 1.54 HR/9. Price’s BB/9 is at a career high, but that may (hopefully) be rust related. Another five starts should give an indication of Price. This contract is certainly not Barry Zito – yet.
Bullpen
Craig Kimbrel – A+
In 2016 a Kimbrel appearance would result in a spike of Jack Daniels sales. The 5.1 BB/9 made comparisons to Heathcliff Slocumb possible, but Kimbrel still could not be hit with a .151 average against him. What a difference a year makes. The numbers are historic.
Joe Kelly – B
Great theater when he starts to go three digits on the speed gun. Kelly still has the wobbles as he continues to walk far too many with a 4.01 BB/9. Kelly’s 89 LOB% is third best in the American League. Danger point? Kelly’s FIP is close to two higher than his ERA.
Matt Barnes – C+
Who shows up? The Barnes with a 4.7 BB/9 or the Barnes that tosses a clutch 11 pitch three K performance? When on you have a guy that gives up very few hits (6.6 H/9).
The bad news is Hembree has a 10.9 H/9. The good news is a 1.7 BB/9. Like Barnes, he can bring the heat. ERA (3.65) and FIP (3.85) almost identical.
Robby Scott – B
Cost Robbie Ross his job. Classic lefty specialist with left-handed hitters batting an anemic .094 against Scott.
Fernando Abad – B
Surprise that Abad made the team, but has performed better than expected. Got a very rare three-inning save against Toronto. Very effective against lefties at .176.
Infield
Pablo Sandoval – F
Is that too high? Another lost season and probably a lost career. Sandoval is now a negative three-tool player: Can’t run, field or throw.
Deven Marrero – C
A grade based almost totally on defense. Marrero did have a two home run game and I also once won a $1,000 on a scratch ticket. I expect neither of us to accomplish that again. I just wished Marrero could bunt although he got a beauty against Toronto. Best UZR/150 among American League third basemen. Finally above Mendoza Line.
Xander Bogaerts – B+
Would like to grade XB higher, but his defense is average at best, but Bogaerts has two Silver Sluggers and possibly a third in the works. The weather is getting warmer and maybe the power will start to arrive? Bogaerts should hit 20+ home runs with his talent.
Dustin Pedroia – B
Pedroia’s MVP season was the basis for any grading. That season was an A+. Pedroia is what he is a great defensive player who gives you gritty at-bats. No longer the “best” second baseman in the American League, but as solid a player as you will find. Still ranked second in AL in UZR/150.
Mitch Moreland – B+
My expectations were rather low and I am surprised by Moreland’s solid hitting. Has taken a slight step back defensively, but still is among the most solid defenders at first base. Had an 11 LOB game against the Jays. No home runs and seven RBI against Lefty pitching.
Outfield
Mookie Betts – B
Best defensive right fielder in the American League. No one even close in defensive runs saved. Another Gold Glove is on the way. Where it has sunk for Betts is his hitting that has reached 40 points lower during the season than his .318 of 2016. The power numbers are down, but not by much. Still the catalyst in the lineup. On pace for 100+ RBI.
Jackie Bradley – B
Mr. Inconsistency. Players have slumps, but JBJ makes it into an art form. Just when you are ready to cut bait comes a JBJ hot streak. Expect Bradley to go .270/20/80 for the season. Great glove compensates for prolonged slumps.
Benintendi will not be Rookie of the Year, but he will play excellent – at times – defense and get some key hits. Leads league in sacrifice flies. Hit lefties at a .262 clip. RISP with two outs is .382. The surprise is a negative UZR/150.
Chris Young – B
Good player off the bench in 2016 and has repeated in 2017. Reliable pinch hitter at .364. Has done little as a designated hitter at .207. Surprise stat:235 against lefties and .274 against righties.
Catcher and Designated Hitter
Sandy Leon – B
Leon was at .180 after April and I was convinced the .307 of 2016 was an illusion. Now hitting .255 with good power. Two out RISP is .333. Batting right or left handed makes little difference. An excellent defensive catcher with 41 CS%.
Crazy stat time is Vaz leads all AL catchers in steals with just three. Hitting just .151 in last month after a fast start. A quality defensive player with a rifle arm. As hitting falls so will his grade.
Hanley Ramirez – C-
An fWAR of just 0.2. Just 33 RBI in the first half. ISO is just .189. Last two weeks (.343) have shown some life and if this is the beginning of an extended hot streak it could ignite entire lineup.
Management
Carl Willis– A
The staff finished the first half as the best in the AL with a 13.2 fWAR. A 2.56 BB/9 is also AL best. LOB% is 74.9 and second best in AL. Starters are ranked number one and bullpen is ranked fourth so Willis is doing something right.
With the loss of Wright and injuries to Rodriguez and Price the rotation has still done the job. How much is the Pomeranz improvement based on Willis? The ‘pen has done remarkably well despite Tyler Thornburg and Carson Smith not being available.
John Farrell – B+
Are the Red Sox winning because of Farrell or in spite of Farrell? They are 2-0 with Farrell out of the picture. There is also some simmering in the clubhouse, but that seems to be both a natural occurrence and something that has been addressed.
Next: Betts and Devers earn weekly honors
Dave Dombrowski – INC
If the Red Sox go on and win a World Series then DD will most certainly get an A+. If the Red Sox miss out again this grade will sink dramatically. The farm system has been stripped clean, but two stars in Sale and Kimbrel outweigh the negativity – at least at this point.
Statistics through 7/2