Red Sox Debate: Brighter MLB future – Andrew Benintendi or Aaron Judge
Which promising rookie has the brighter MLB future – Boston Red Sox left fielder Andrew Benintendi or New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge?
Many of us were under the impression entering the season that Boston Red Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi would be the front-runner in the Rookie of the Year race. The former No. 7 overall pick had the pedigree and the tools that would soon make him a star.
It’s not that Benintendi has been a disappointment. Perhaps he hasn’t quite lived up to the massive hype that he carried with him into this year. That doesn’t mean he hasn’t been solid by the standards of a 22-year old navigating his first full season in the big leagues. It’s certainly no stretch to consider him as the second best rookie from his class.
Benintendi falling short for the honor of being named the league’s top rookie would be no knock against him. It’s simply that New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge has been better – and so far it’s not even close.
Judge is not only trampling the ROY competition, he’s making a solid case for MVP consideration. The 25-year old leads the league in home runs, while his 1.096 OPS and 3.3 WAR trail only the injured Mike Trout. The reigning MVP’s lengthy absence opens the race to a bevy of challengers, with Judge standing tall over the other contenders thus far.
While Judge didn’t skyrocket through the minor league system as quickly as Benintendi did, he’s still a former first-round pick in his own right. We knew he was a talented player, yet few expected him to be this good this soon.
Boston’s left fielder has his work cut out for him to reach the level that Judge has risen to. There’s no doubt that he also has superstar potential, it’s a matter of if the younger Benintendi will reach that ceiling over time. Which of these rookies has the brighter future in the long run?
One glance at the hulking figure of the 6-foot-7, 275 pound Judge tells you that he possesses massive power. It was always clear that he would be able to hit home runs. It’s the lofty batting average that has taken us by surprise.
Judge enters the day seventh in the league with a .321 batting average. Not only is this a completely different hitter than the one who struggled to the tune of a .179 average in his 27 game audition last year, Judge is producing his highest batting average since low A-ball. For all his power potential, nothing in his minor league resume suggested he’d be contending for batting titles.
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Dig deeper and we find reasons to be skeptical Judge will continue at this pace. His most glaring weakness is his strikeout rate, which at 29.7 percent puts him in the bottom 10 in the league. Of the AL hitters with the 10 highest batting averages, only Chicago’s Avisail Garcia has a strikeout rate of over 21 percent – yet his 21.9 K% still isn’t nearly as troubling as Judge’s rate.
Among AL hitters with a strikeout rate of at least 24 percent, only one other hitter besides Judge has posted a batting average of at least .280 this season. That would be Minnesota’s Miguel Sano, another power hitter whose early-season batting average we should take with a grain of salt.
We should also note that Sano is the only hitter in the league with a higher BABIP than the .411 mark Judge has benefited from. The league average for balls hit in play typically hovers around .300, so when a player suddenly sports a BABIP well above that level with no track record of doing so then we have to expect regression is coming.
Judge’s massive frame and 47.2 hard hit percentage (tied for third in the league) support his status as an elite home run hitter. However, he might see some regression there as well. His 38.3 percent HR/FB ratio not only leads the league by a wide margin, it’s nearly double anything he produced in the minors.
Eventually the strikeouts are going to catch up with him, his luck on balls in play will even out a bit and the number of fly balls that leave the park will regress back to normalcy. This isn’t to suggest that Judge is on the verge of falling apart. He’ll still hit for power with a solid batting average. The difference going forward is that we should expect him to do so at a level that establishes him as a blossoming star, not an MVP candidate.
Benintendi enters the day hitting .272/.343/.427 with eight home runs, 31 RBI, eight steals and a 0.8 WAR. He leads all qualified major league rookies who aren’t named Judge in OBP, OPS, hits, RBI, steals and WAR.
While Judge has benefited from good fortune on balls hit in play, the opposite can be said of Benintendi. His .284 BABIP is below league average and well below his minor league rates. We can’t expect him to match the .367 BABIP from his 34 game sample in the big leagues last year, although splitting the difference between that and his current rate seems reasonable.
Also supporting the notion that Benintendi’s batting average should be on the rise is that he rarely strikes out. His 14.3 K% ranks 16th in the league and is less than half of Judge’s staggering rate.
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Few players hit the ball as hard as Judge, yet Benintendi’s 34.8 Hard% is still pretty solid. Nearly half of Benintendi’s contact is rated at a medium level, while his 15.7 Soft% isn’t far off from Judge (14.4%). Essentially this means that while Benny doesn’t have Judge’s massive power potential, he’s not getting by with cheap hits either – another reason to believe his average will rise.
Benintendi isn’t a big time home run hitter but he’s still on pace for 20+ homers, while also adding value on the base paths with an equal pace for stolen bases. Only nine major league hitters bashed 20+ homers and swiped 20+ bases last year, benchmarks Benintendi could easily reach as a rookie. He may even make a run at the 25/25 club, an exclusive group that only Trout, Mookie Betts and Wil Myers were a part of last year. To give you an idea of the types of players that reach that level, all three were All-Stars, Trout was an MVP and Betts was the runner-up. Not bad company to be in if Benny can get there.
One area that Benintendi has been a disappointment is in the field, at least according to some advanced defensive metrics. He has -2 defensive runs saved and a -1 UZR to go along with a pair of errors. Judge has also committed two errors but he rates above-average with 6 defensive runs saved and a 2.7 UZR.
Benny is a natural center fielder who has all the tools to become a good defensive player. His lackluster defensive metrics may partially be the result of learning a new position in left field, as well as the challenge of playing in the shadow of Fenway Park’s towering Green Monster.
Just as the advanced metrics show us that Benitendi’s production at the plate will improve, the scouting reports and eye test suggest that his defensive metrics will trend upwards as well. Once he puts it all together, the gap in value between he and Judge will shrink.
Keep in mind that Benintendi is also three years younger than the Yankees slugger. Most players his age are still climbing their way up the minor league ladder, yet Benny has proven he belongs at this level.
No matter how many videos we see of Benny Biceps lifting chains during his winter workouts, he’s never going to match the raw power of Judge. The Yankees phenom may challenge the 40 home run mark annually, just don’t expect his batting average to stay above .300 in the process. Judge is a lot closer to Adam Dunn than Babe Ruth.
Benintendi is more likely to hit for a high average. He won’t deliver as much power but should still settle in the mid-20’s range for home runs while adding plus speed and defense. He’s a five-tool player who should be able to sustain high levels of production in every aspect of his game.
Both of these players have star potential. However, they are different types of players, so determining which one has the brighter future may boil down to what you look for in a star. Judge has a high ceiling with an edge in the power and run production departments, although his alarming strikeout rate combined with the other factors that scream regression suggest a lower floor than Benintendi’s.
Judge is proving he’s a force to be reckoned with, so the safe bet is to consider both of these rookies among the next crop of stars. Yet despite the small sample we’ve seen this season, Benintendi’s age, rapid rise through the system and all-around tools make him my choice in the long term.