Red Sox: Grading the first 50 games
The Red Sox may be positioning themselves for no June swoon despite an inconsistent first part of the season. What are the grades for the collective? Who in the division will roll or fade?
The Red Sox team has suffered through bad weather, bad injuries, sloppy play and the retirement of David Ortiz that may have affected more than just the offense. Despite the rather rough road the team is in a good position for the next few months to be meaningful and not meaningless.
My personal benchmark for the season is the 50 game point – a possible left over from when the schedule was 154 games. The Red Sox just completed a successful home stand so the game total rests at 49 – close enough. By this point, you have an idea of just what type of team you will have. Pitching, hitting and defense should all have enough in the statistical bank to give you an excellent baseline for measurement. I’ll start with the keys to the kingdom – pitching.
ROTATION
The Red Sox staff is number one in the American League in pitching. Just let that roll around a bit – this is like Kim Kardashian winning an Oscar. How do you stay number one with the loss of Steven Wright and David Price?
The starters are ranked number one and Chris Sale certainly has the pitching creed to tweak that number, but don’t dismiss under the radar, Eduardo Rodriguez. E-Rod has been a favorite since he came on the scene a few years ago and teased with his potential. Now he apparently “Gets it” and is following a similar path that Jon Lester did with Boston.
Rick Porcello will not win a Cy Young Award – either this season or in his entire career. Was 2016 a pitching anomaly? For me it was and Porcello is what he was expected to me – a solid middle of the rotation contributor. What tosses me into a quandary is Drew Pomeranz. Each start with Pomeranz is the Forest Gump box of chocolates. If Price returns to reasonable career performance standards this rotation will continue to be memorable in a positive way.
First 50 Grade – A-
BULLPEN
The second part of the balancing of the pitching equation is the bullpen that is now ranked fifth in the AL. As frustrated as I can be with Heath Hembree and Matt Barnes the simple pitching fact is they get the job done. It may not be a pitching Picasso performance, but they are not Heathcliff Slocumb redux.
What happened to Fernando Abad? Suddenly and inexplicably Abad has performed as was expected when brought over from the Twins. Toss in Joe Kelly and Robby Scott and you have a solid, but not up in lights bunch – for up in lights you have Craig Kimbrell. In 2016 that 5.09 BB/9 gave me heart palpitations when he wandered in from the bullpen – no more.
The Red Sox managed to accomplish this without the two key ingredients – like baking a cake without flour and eggs – Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg. At the current rate of their recovery, I expect them on the roster by the time the next ice age rolls around.
First 50 Grade – B
OFFENSE
In 2016 the Red Sox offense led the league in just about every positive statistical category – both traditional and metrics. The one item that is the most important runs. Runs win games – even my muddled mind can decipher that earth shattering reasoning. This season the Red Sox are fifth in the AL, but the good news is that figure is climbing.
Collectively, this offense has no home run punch of note as they are last in the AL in that total. In a world turned upside down the Rays are first. The Red Sox do have their usual lock on doubles and this team has a group of players that are quite accomplished at getting the ball in the gap. The offense is also dead last (thankfully) in K%. This is an offense that works a pitcher.
The great offensive void has been third base where Pablo Sandoval was supposed to reside until injury intervened. Every other option has come up negative. The loss of Brock Holt has been critical, but the reality is the team has managed to survive.
To paraphrase Rick Pitino – “A home run hitter is not walking through that door.” What you see offensively is what you will get for the season. Mookie Betts has taken a slight dip back from 2016 and Xander Bogaerts is smart enough to take what he is given and not swinging from his heels. Jackie Bradley may or may not go on a streak and Mitch Moreland is as advertised.
The marathon will continue and in the next fifty games, the Red Sox offense will most certainly improve in the runs category. Right now they appear to be an engine with an occasional sticky cylinder. Maybe Hanley Ramirez will get that cylinder unstuck?
First 50 Grade – B-
DEFENSE
On defense, this is a sloppy team. How did this change so much in a year? The Red Sox collectively are ranked in the middle of the AL defensive pack. The first order is the positive and that is Dustin Pedroia, Bradley, and Betts. All three can be defensive highlights on any given night. Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon are quite capable and Mitch Moreland may not win another Gold Glove, but he does lead all AL first basemen in defensive runs saved (DRS).
The hole at third is not only offense, but also defense as the Red Sox collectively rank 14th with a -7 for DRS. Bogaerts is steady at third, but has a -8 DRS and is -0.8 on UZR. If the Red Sox had a talented minor league shortstop that could provide some hitting and above average glove work you could see XB sent to third.
Andrew Benintendi has been “average” defensively in left field. The same applies to his sojourn in center field, but sometimes the defensive metrics can be misleading. Deven Marrero has clamped down third in recent games defensively, but his hitting is still a work in progress or lack of progress.
The Red Sox are ranked 7th in the AL defensively and Red Sox Nation should expect more. There have been far too many mental errors that have given up runs unnecessarily.
First 50 Grade – C+
WHO DO YOU FEAR?
The AL East is – at least to the fans of the teams – the premier division in baseball. A certain baseball xenophobia or just plain divisional snobbery. One item of note is the New York Yankees are the only divisional team with a winning road record.
Who do you fear?
I continue to keep a watchful eye on the Toronto Blue Jays, who are nearing full strength on offense. The Jays are a surprising 14th in AL offense, but is it a surprise when your core players are on the disabled list (DL)? This is a team that can hit and they will. Warning sign – right now the offense is negative in run differential.
The Jays pitching staff is among the best in the AL despite some dings and dents. The staff has had to endure an offense that has not supplied the usually covering fire that makes the Jays a formidable opponent. A warning sign is the Jays bullpen leads the AL in innings pitched. Fear factor points are that this is the team that will be in it at the end.
The Yankees are great to have back in the hunt after a few seasons rebuilding. Brian Cashman made all the right moves are has created a nice blend of youth and veteran experience, but much hinges on the development of pitching. That – like with most teams – is a big question mark. Reliance on young arms and veterans who have been inconsistent can nullify a juiced offense.
New York will finish above .500 and the big question is just how far above .500? The offense is starting to return from a rather explosive six weeks and does anyone expect Aaron Hicks to hit .300? The next 50 games will give an insight into the Yankees season – can they sustain .600 baseball? I doubt it. A warning sign is the arms of the vets.
The Orioles will fall short simply over pitching. A huge hole in the bullpen and a starting rotation that puts too much pressure on the bullpen. This is simply not a very good staff and a staff that can be awful at times.
The Orioles offense has scored far fewer runs than Boston’s. The O’s have created a mindset for me where they simply beat to death other teams, but that seems to be the O’s of last season. Manny Machado and Chris Davis – have you seen their batting averages?
Every game with the Rays appears to be a trap game. The Rays are actually hitting! They are second in the AL in batting and first in home runs. They are also first in K%. How long will this last? After 50 games – give or take – it has to be considered a trend, but then comes the pitching.
The Rays are seventh in team pitching, but also seventh at home in that category. No ballpark skewering the statistical line. What will happen is that any pitcher of value – say a Chris Archer – may soon reside elsewhere as the Rays do what has become standard practice – trade away players. A warning sign is just that – the offense and pitching could be minimized by trades.
What about the next fifty or so games? The Red Sox have the pitching despite the scourge of injuries. There is a disclaimer and that is all about the recovery of Price. Without Price giving a solid seven or so each game the Red Sox bullpen could be toast after a month. I don’t count on Brian Johnson morphing into vintage Lefty Grove nor do I expect Thornburg and Smith to show up until post All-Star break – if then.
The hitting has been on and off and probably will continue to be just that. Several games were lost by a lack of a crucial hit and Sale seemed to be the one suffering the most. Expect to see the Red Sox to get a bit more production that we witnessed in the first 50 games.
The defense looked better the last few weeks as suddenly all the basics seemed to be collectively remembered. This team needs solid run-saving defense since the hitting has become rather un-Red Sox like.
Next: Catching up with old friends: David Aardsma
This is a team that should be either leading the division or a notch behind at the All-Star break. They certainly have the talent – especially the arms. The depleted farm system offers up little either to help the Big Club or for potential trades. It will be an enjoyable June and July.