The Boston Red Sox’ oft-criticized manager deserves some credit for using Craig Kimbrel when it mattered most.
Let’s set the stage.
It’s the bottom of the eighth inning in a one-run game. Matt Barnes comes into the game and records a quick out, then walks a batter bringing Milwaukee Brewers professional masher Eric Thames to the plate. Now, conventional wisdom would direct most managers to ride their set-up man in this situation, however, John Farrell made a bigger and better decision.
Instead of rolling the dice and allowing Barnes to face Thames in what was at the time, the biggest moment of the game, Farrell called on shutdown closer Craig Kimbrel to get the Red Sox out of the inning. Kimbrel would go on to sandwich a soft infield single between strikeouts of Thames and Keon Broxton to end the inning and preserve a tie. He would then throw an immaculate ninth inning to end the game and secure a 4-1 win.
To quantify how important the eighth inning was, the Win Probability Added of Thames’ (-.058 WPA) and Broxton’s (-.109 WPA) at-bats were higher than any of those in the bottom of the ninth. Mookie Betts‘ three-run homer in the top of the ninth had a lot to do with the difference in measurement since three outs in a 4-1 game are with significantly less important than those in a 1-1 game. However, Kimbrel’s deployment in the real high-leverage spot is what set the stage for Mookie’s game-winning play. Based on the metric, he gave the Red Sox a 16% greater chance of winning with the two eighth-inning punch-outs.
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The old adage of “playing to record the 27th out” no longer applies in modern strategy. In today’s game, we can measure how much each out is really worth and in most cases, the 27th isn’t the most important. That’s the reason why the Shutdown and Meltdown stats were invented as alternatives to save and blown saves six years ago. If a relief pitcher helps his team’s chances to win by six percent or more, based on WPA, he’s awarded a shutdown. If he hinders his team’s chances to lose by six percent or more, he’s attributed with a meltdown. Kimbrel was awarded a shutdown for his play in the eighth inning alone.
The Red Sox manager has deserved a lot of criticism for his bullpen utilization in the past, mostly the inconsistency with which he deploys pitchers, but in this case, he got it right. This wasn’t the first time he has either. On May 7 in Minnesota, Kimbrel came in to record the final two outs of the eighth inning, preserving a one-run lead and setting the stage for the Red Sox’ 10-run explosion in the top of the ninth.
The strategy is starting to take hold in baseball too. Indians manager Terry Francona made waves in last year’s postseason by utilizing his best pitcher, Andrew Miller, in non-save situations when the game mattered most. His audacity to use his best pitcher in the biggest spots turned conventional baseball thinking on its head and is supported by both sabermetrics and common sense. When the game is on the line, who better than the one guy you can firmly rely on?
This season, there’s no doubt that Kimbrel has been that guy for the Red Sox. In 15 appearances, he has a 0.47 FIP with a ridiculous 55.4% strikeout rate and 92.1% left-on-base percentage. After struggling with his command over the past two seasons, he’s walked just two batters in 15.2 innings of work. Kimbrel is once again the dominant reliever the Red Sox traded for last season, and he might be better than he’s ever been.
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Farrell’s move to bring in Kimbrel was aggressive – and one that panned out. Sitting 4.5 games out of first place with an 18-16 record, it’s about time the Red Sox start playing more aggressive baseball. Using their closer in more high-leverage situations doesn’t need to become a consistent habit, though it’s certainly worthwhile when the situation calls, as it did in Thursday’s victory. Credit where it’s due, Farrell did what he needed to win the game.