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Red Sox Predictions: Travis Shaw trade ultimately won’t be a mistake

By Jake Sauberman

Apr 4, 2017; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Travis Shaw (21) high fives teammates in the dugout after scoring a run during the second inning against the Colorado Rockies at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 4, 2017; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Travis Shaw (21) high fives teammates in the dugout after scoring a run during the second inning against the Colorado Rockies at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports /
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Former Boston Red Sox third baseman Travis Shaw is off to a hot start, leading many to call the trade a mistake–an opinion predicated on flawed assumptions.

Apr 4, 2017; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Travis Shaw (21) high fives teammates in the dugout after scoring a run during the second inning against the Colorado Rockies at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 4, 2017; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Travis Shaw (21) high fives teammates in the dugout after scoring a run during the second inning against the Colorado Rockies at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports /

With the Boston Red Sox visiting the Milwaukee Brewers for a rare three-game series, there’s been only one storyline circulating the Boston media: Travis Shaw’s emergence as a force in Milwaukee and what a mistake it was to trade him this offseason.

It’s been blown out of proportion, but it started for a legitimate reason. As one could have likely predicted in March, the third basemen, and there already have been several, who have suited up for the Red Sox have been brutal.

The Red Sox are receiving a .222/.264/.333 slash line from the hot corner, resembling something from a post-rookie-year Will Middlebrooks. The .597 OPS amounts to 57% of the production that the league-average third baseman supplies his team.

The defensive side of the ball isn’t going much better. 12 errors have already come from third base alone, good for an abysmal .848 fielding percentage. Count other defensive factors like range and the result is -6 defensive runs saved at third base.

Simply put, the third base crew of Pablo Sandoval, Marco Hernandez, Josh Rutledge, Deven Marrero, Brock Holt and Steve Selsky has not been getting it done on the whole.

Now look at Travis Shaw’s 2017 and it’s easy to see why “Was the Travis Shaw trade a mistake?” headlines are popping up en masse. Slashing .265/.310/.538 with 17 extra-base hits and 25 RBIs in the heart of the homer-happy Brewers lineup, Shaw is in the midst of a legitimate resurgence.

On the surface, this looks plainly evident: if the Red Sox had Shaw’s current production slotted at third base, they would be far better off. But that’s an overly presumptuous argument to make considering the underlying factors.

How can one assume that Shaw’s production in Milwaukee would translate to Boston? That’s impossible to prove, especially when the difference in his situation is so drastic.

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