Red Sox: A revised look at AL East division
The Boston Red Sox finished April above the .500 mark. So just what is the outlook for Boston and the rest of the AL East? Here is a brief prediction for each team.
The American League East looks to be a cage fight for the entire season as teams suffer through injuries and surprisingly good and bad performances. The first 50 games are the benchmark for me as that gives you a fairly decent idea of what your team will look like over the baseball marathon.
April got about half those games in the book and the standings are a surprise for me. The O’s and Yankees are where I expected the Jays and Red Sox to be. The Jays have really hit the bottom, but talent rises to the occasion and they most certainly will be back.
I expected the Red Sox to approach 100 wins and that is still possible, but based on their early performance I am not about to plunk down a few grand in Vegas on it.
The East is fun to watch, especially when you have matchup’s going on nightly – plenty of scoreboard watching and that will go on until September. A few injuries or unexpected plus performances can catapult a team to a few additional wins or losses.
So here is my look at just what I expect to happen. Based on my previous history of predictions, I would expect the opposite.
BOSTON RED SOX
For the Boston Red Sox, the most startling issue facing their rather tepid performance is the sudden power outage. This is the baseball version of the Great Blackout of 1965. Passing on Edwin Encarnacion may be fatal to their chances.
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A definite subset to Boston’s laggard start is the defense as a solid team-wide contribution in 2016 that has now suddenly become the Cleveland Spiders of another era. The mental mistakes abound as do simply making routine plays appear as complicated as quantum physics. And why has Jackie Bradley decided to forgo rifle throws for lollipop tosses?
The second and most important ingredient of the above-mentioned defense is pitching – the front line of defense. The bullpen has been surprisingly reliable and may improve if Tyler Thornburg and Carson Smith ever return. The starters have been inconsistent, but Chris Sale may be a lefty version of Pedro Martinez.
The crucial point for a significant Red Sox impact in the AL East dogfight is somehow getting the hitting on track. I don’t expect 200+ home runs or even 150, but top to bottom they collectively seem to have long periods of being MIA. Too many wasted opportunities have left starters – especially Sale – wanting for run support.
I will go out on a prediction limb and see the Red Sox jelling offensively as we get deeper into the season. Too many good bats to have suddenly gone slumping. The pitching will also get a nice talent injection when David Price returns. The cautious Price and Red Sox will not give it a go until he’s 100%.
Strength – Pitching depth. Balanced lineup.
Weakness – Defense is shoddy and potential for lineup failure.
Chances – Still the favorite – 94 wins.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
This team can hit – really hit. Top to bottom power with Chris Davis, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones all serious long ball threats. Even J.J. Hardy can still hit them out. Jonathan Schoop is – at least to me – an underrated player. There are, however, a few holes in the offense. Seth Smith and Hyun Soo Kim are questionable and Welington Castillo got the big conract, but can he hit 15-20 out?
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Dylan Bundy and the no names is not a singing group, but the O’s rotation. In a recent series against New York the staff just continually gave it up. With Wade Miley and Kevin Gausman you have a 50/50 shot at a win. With Ubaldo Jimenez that certainly drops.
The loss of All-World closer Zach Britton was painful in several games and the balance of the relief corps is just average at best. Far too often a good start will be blown by a poor ‘pen or lousy start will see a solid ‘pen performance wasted.
I don’t expect much from the O’s in the long haul since their pitching is questionable and the lineup power can be nullified by quality starters.
Strength – They pound the ball.
Weakness – The rotation is weak unless a few starters find a nice groove. The bullpen is questionable without Britton.
Chances – Buck Showalter will keep them close – 85 wins may be their plateau.
NEW YORK YANKEES
The hitting is back in force in New York with a tower of power in Aaron Judge leading the way. Expect Judge and Andrew Benintendi to be the top contenders for Rookie of the Year honors. Judge is not the only culprit in the revitalized New York lineup.
Austin Romine has taken full advantage of the absence of Gary Sanchez to possibly establish himself as the number one catching option. Time will tell, but if Sanchez comes close to his 2016 performance NY will have a fine Dilemma on their hands.
New York risked jettison of veteran talent for youth and it has paid off. Old hands like Brett Gardner, Chase Headley, Matt Holliday and Jacoby Ellsbury are mixed in with Starlin Castro – only 27-years-old – and a bevy of contributors who are young and promising. Give Brian Cashman an A for rebuilding.
Where it possibly comes apart for the Yankees is on the mound. Masahiro Tanaka is about as good as it gets as an ace, but after that, it all is a big question mark. C.C. Sabathia has pitched well in the early going, but after several seasons of mediocre, I don’t expect a sudden rush to his form of ten seasons ago.
Michael Pineda and Luis Severino have a world of promise and a world of inconsistency. Maybe the high hopes for Jordan Montgomery will be reached? What New York does have is a stellar bullpen to back up the rotation – get a lead and they are like SEAL Team 5 for providing protection.
Pitching wins and pitching loses. In New York that is what it will come to – the rotation has some “issues” and they will only magnify as the season progresses unless the youngsters find that aforementioned consistency. Expect New York to be in until the end. Next year expect a pwowerhouse in New York.
Strength – The batting order, power. Bullpen is solid.
Weakness – starting pitching. Youth sometimes hits a wall.
Chances – Team could contend for Wild Card. Expect 87 wins – more if starters get in gear.
TAMPA BAY RAYS
The Rays are opposite of their counterparts in the AL East since you think pitching and not hitting first with Tampa. This should be no exception for 2017. With the Rays you never expect it to be easy and for AL East foes every game with the Rays is a “trap game.” Pitching will do that.
Chris Archer will again be the ace of their staff and may actually end up with a plus .500 record if he gets some reasonable run support. No one else approaches Archer among the starters, but they are all quite capable and would certainly draw interest if tossed out in trade scenarios.
My personal favorite is Blake Snell – a young lefty who walks far too many, but may soon develop into a solid number two starter. The bullpen for the Rays always seems in transition, but invariably does the job. I like Jumbo Diaz simply because he is far larger than El Guapo – Rich Garces of the Red Sox a few years back.
The Rays actually were leading the AL in hitting for a few weeks – the old adage about a blind squirrel applies. The lineup has Evan Longoria and a support group that certainly is far from the rest of the division. The hitting over the long haul will cause a lot of frustrating losses.
Strength – Pitching and some solid defense.
Weakness – Being in the AL East
Chances – Anything above 75 wins will be a plus.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
There are holes teams dig for themselves and the Jays made an attempt to match the Grand Canyon in April. On paper I expected the Jays to be right there with the Red Sox since both had above average pitching and solid offense. But slumps happen and now the Jays can attempt to extricate themselves from the bottom. My hunch is they will do it.
The lineup is a bit long in the tooth baseball wise with some player well into baseball middle age, but still potent. Jose Bautista takes special delight in tormenting Boston. Russell Martin is still capable with the glove and the bat. Kevin Pillar and Justin Smoak are solid vets who just don’t get enough attention.
J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez are key to the rotation and both are down for the count. The timetable for a return for both is open so the rotation has some strategic parts missing. That reverberates through the entire staff so Toronto has some pitching issues – issues that can be remedied with a good to go from the medical staff. Even youthful closer Marco Estrada has been touched up.
Next: Options to fill in for Steven Wright
Strength – batting order still one of the best. Rotation when everyone is healthy.
Weakness – Age catching up as is injury bug. Bullpen a concern.
Chances – I still look at 90 wins.