Red Sox Standings Watch: Stuck in the middle of AL East
A monthly review of where the Boston Red Sox stand in the hunt for October, along with analysis of teams rising and falling in the AL East.
If you avoid looking at the standings then you may be under the impression that the Boston Red Sox are off to a wildly disappointing start to a season in which they seem intent on testing the limits of Murphy’s Law. We’re only one month in, yet this team has already endured nearly every scenario that could derail their playoff aspirations.
The biggest question facing the Red Sox entering the season was how the offense would fare in the absence of David Ortiz and so far those concerns have been warranted. Boston ranks 12th in the league in runs scored and dead last in home runs. Getting runners on base hasn’t been a problem, it’s driving them in that remains an issue.
The offensive woes can partially be attributed to the Red Sox working without their full Opening Day lineup for the bulk of April. Only Mitch Moreland has appeared in all 24 games, while the stars that make up the heart of the order have each missed at least a few games due to various injuries and an outbreak of the flu that ravaged the clubhouse.
Losing an ace caliber pitcher is a setback that would hinder any team. Boston’s pitching staff is fourth in the league with a 3.49 ERA, thanks mostly to the solid work of the bullpen. The rotation’s 4.09 ERA ranks 12th, despite being led by Chris Sale‘s sparkling 1.19 ERA. The starting staff was supposed to be a strength of this team, but that was when we thought they had a three-headed monster at the top of the rotation. David Price has yet to take the mound this season and his absence has forced the team to keep sending the struggling Steven Wright out to start every fifth day.
AL East Standings
Many teams would have sunk to the bottom of the standings if they had to endure as many setbacks as this Red Sox team has in the opening month of the season, yet they head into May in third place in the AL East.
AL East standings entering May, via https://t.co/nGtObuSrAY. pic.twitter.com/h32IWEFBEh
— Sean Penney (@spenney83) May 1, 2017
Boston is only 2.5 games behind the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees, who currently share the division lead. At two games over .500, the Red Sox own a winning percentage that isn’t far off from what was required to earn a playoff spot last season.
The Red Sox have a run differential of zero, having scored 93 runs and allowed the same amount. That would suggest they may remain a middling team on the outskirts of contention, although if they can get Price back in the rotation next month and their bats start to heat up to the level we expect then their runs scored and allowed numbers should start trending in the right directions.
Rising
New York Yankees
The young core of the new-look Yankees appears to be blossoming ahead of schedule. New York leads the league in runs scored and is at or near the top of most offensive categories.
What’s most surprising is that the Yankees have managed this without last year’s rookie sensation Gary Sanchez, who has been limited to five games by a biceps injury.
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Instead, it’s been the other young studs carrying this team. Aaron Judge is hitting .303 with a 1.161 OPS. His 10 home runs are tied for the league lead and he’s fifth in RBI with 20. Ronald Torreyes is doing his best Derek Jeter impression, hitting .313 and providing solid defense at shortstop where he has yet to commit an error in 18 games at the position this year. Starlin Castro seems to be making the leap many expected after a few promising season with the Chicago Cubs to begin his big league career. The 27-year old is hitting a blistering .352 with a .947 OPS in his second season in pinstripes.
As great as the offense has been, the Yankees pitching may be an even bigger surprise. While the old guard of C.C. Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka have gotten off to slow starts, the young talent in the rotation is thriving. Luis Severino owns a 3.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and 11.0 K/9 through four starts, while Michael Pineda has been nearly as dominant with a 3.14 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 11.62 K/9.
New York’s +43 run differential leads the league by a wide margin and trails only the Washington Nationals (+48) in the majors. Compare that to Baltimore’s +1 run differential and it’s clear which team’s division leading pace is more sustainable, making the Yankees the biggest threat to challenging Boston’s division crown.
Falling
Toronto Blue Jays
The team many expected to contend with the Red Sox for the top spot in the division has instead found themselves in the basement of the AL East.
It looks like losing Edwin Encarnacion in free agency has crippled the Jays offense even more than the Red Sox have dropped off without Ortiz. Toronto is 14th in the league in runs scored and OPS without their top slugger anchoring the lineup. His replacement, Kendrys Morales, has provided modest power but is hitting a meager .227 with a .667 OPS. Jose Bautista is a shell of his former self and no longer has the bat speed to catch up with a major league fastball. It also clearly hasn’t helped that Josh Donaldson has been sidelined by a calf injury that has limited him to nine games.
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The pitching staff has had it’s fair share of issues as well. Aaron Sanchez is coming off a breakout season in which he led the league in ERA, but he’s been limited to three starts due to a finger injury. He was activated for a start on Sunday, only to be removed after one inning with a cracked fingernail likely to send him back to the disabled list.
Roberto Osuna was on the shelf to start the season and hasn’t been up to his usual standards since his return, blowing three of his first six save chances. Setup man and occasional fill-in closer Jason Grilli has been a dumpster fire so far, posting a 7.27 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 10 appearances.
Toronto should be expected to improve when and if they get healthier, but they are digging themselves into a deep hole with a dismal opening month that already has them 8 games back in the division.
Wild Card
It’s never too early to start thinking about the playoff race. With Boston currently trailing two teams in their division, the Wild Card hunt will be something for us to keep an eye on.
The Yankees and O’s are tied at the top of the AL East and whichever one of them falls behind will be in position for the first Wild Card spot. After that there’s a tight race for the second spot, with a handful of teams within two games of each other in the loss column.
American League Wild Card race heading into May, via https://t.co/nGtObuSrAY. pic.twitter.com/MAxGF1RvgS
— Sean Penney (@spenney83) May 1, 2017
The Red Sox are one of those teams, entering the day a half game behind the Chicago White Sox. That’s right, we took Sale from them in exchange for prospects that haven’t made a mark in the big leagues yet this season and Chicago has still been ahead of Boston in the standings. The Pale Hose have been riding a breakout season from Avisail Garcia and the league’s best bullpen, although both should be expected to drop off from their scorching paces.
The Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Angels are within a half game of the Red Sox, with the Detroit Tigers lurking a game behind them.
Next: Not time for Red Sox to panic yet
A lot can happen over the next five months to shake up this race. However, the early returns suggest that the Red Sox will have some stiff competition for a playoff spot. If they get some key players back from injury and the bats in their lineup wake up then Boston can easily vault up the standings, but not if they continue to play at this mediocre pace that has them stuck in the middle of the division.