Red Sox Prospect Watch: Players starting to heat up
With April coming to a close, the Boston Red Sox look to their farm system to see who has made an impact so far. Both good and bad, impacts have been made.
As the calendar is transitioning to May, so too is the Red Sox farm system. With roughly a month of baseball in the books, the first educated conclusions are starting to be made.
Obviously, there have only been a couple weeks of baseball, so everything should be taken with a grain of salt. But, if a guy is hitting the ball well in April, who’s to say he won’t do the same when the weather warms up?
Also, if someone is showing a high strikeout rate in April, it’s fair to think he will do the same in August. Because of this, there are projections that can be realistically made for players in the system.
Another transition, which usually happens around this time, is a player who gets to stay in the majors long term due to an injury. The Red Sox called up a top-10 prospect in the second week of the season, and it seems like he will be in Boston for the foreseeable future. Due to the injury to Pablo Sandoval, this player will be able to showcase his talents to all of Red Sox Nation.
But, impact is not always a good thing. Another top-10 prospect, who was a highlight in Spring Training, is currently struggling in the minors. While he is not someone the Red Sox need in Boston this year, he is looked at as “the future”.
Again, this is only through a couple weeks, but there are trends that can be scrutinized. To start, let us look at who is making an impact in Boston.
Boston Red Sox
Remember that top 10 prospect I referenced in the previous slide? The one who seems to be staying in Boston long-term due to the Sandoval injury? That would be none other than Marco Hernandez.
Hernandez, who is a natural middle infielder, has the ability to be a super-utility player. Think of him as a Dominican Brock Holt. With Holt already on the DL due to vertigo, this is when Hernandez can shine.
The reports on Sandoval’s knee are coming in, and they do not look good. Below is a tweet that has John Farrell‘s prognosis on the injury:
Farrell tells @MLBNetworkRadio Sandoval sprained medial side of knee "I dont know how long this one’s going to take” https://t.co/jRBrSBhwbU
— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) April 25, 2017
When your manager says essentially “Yeah I have no clue”, that is never a good sign. For Hernandez, this could be the break he needs to crack the everyday lineup. Even with the fiasco in Baltimore over the weekend, Pedroia wasn’t injured enough to warrant a DL stint.
Also, Xander Bogaerts has the 3rd best average on the team, so Hernandez won’t be playing short anytime soon. When Dombrowski traded away Travis Shaw in the offseason, many saw it as trading Panda’s only third base competition away.
But, in his limited MLB time, Hernandez has proven to be a great piece of the roster due to his versatility. In 40 games last year, he hit a shade under .300. Already in 14 games this season, he is hitting .286. While he isn’t going to win a batting title anytime soon, it does show his potential.
Realistically, Hernandez will play 3B against RHP, while Josh Rutledge plays against LHP. Is Hernandez is the future at third base? No, he is not. But the future of third base is in Portland, and will not be ready to play this year. For now, Marco Hernandez has an opportunity many players dream of.
Pawtucket Red Sox
While I was just praising the skills of Marco Hernandez, I do have to criticize another top 10 prospect. Sam Travis, who many see as the future first baseman for Boston, has not looked good over the past couple weeks.
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In just 11 games, Travis is hitting just .175. While he does have a home run in that span, it is mostly doubles. There is no denying that Travis’ best feature is his power. If that power disappears, then the expectations for him needs to be tempered.
Another alarming statistic from Travis is his high strikeout rate. Currently, his K rate is a staggering 37.5%. Also, look at his strikeouts compared to other numbers. Travis currently has over two times the amount of K’s as hits. Also, his strikeout to walk ratio is currently 5:1.
Obviously, it is way too early to call Sam Travis a bust. But, the Red Sox have been pleasantly surprised with the production of Mitch Moreland. If Travis spends most, if not all, of this season struggling, a decision to extend Moreland might have to be made.
But, not all is negative in Pawtucket. Brandon Workman, a fan favorite of the 2013 World Series Champion team, has looked sublime this year. In 3 relief appearances over 7 innings, he has been virtually perfect. Workman has only allowed one walk and hit each, while striking out 10 batters.
Most bullpens in baseball go through trial and error for some relievers. I think Workman has a real shot to break the major league roster sooner rather than later. Players like Heath Hembree and Fernando Abad, who have not looked good for Boston in the past, could have a short leash. If they struggle, expect Workman to take their spot.
Portland Sea Dogs
While Sam Travis is the future at first base for Boston, Rafael Devers is the future at third base. The 20-year old has become the number one prospect in the Red Sox farm system, and for good reason. Devers projects to be able to hit for average while also being able to slug the ball out of the yard.
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So far, Devers is showing his potential with the bat in Portland. Hitting .320 over 13 games, Devers is showing he can hit above average. Also, Devers is second on the team with 24 total bases. This is very important because he is proving his expectations are warranted due to the massive amounts of production.
Obviously, Devers will not be playing everyday in Boston this year. Again, he is only 20 years old. Also, Sandoval is under contract until the 2019 season, at the very least. Now, if Devers can continue with his production, this is something to pay attention to.
It would be laughable to say Sandoval’s time in Boston has been anything that resembles success. But, if you fast forward a little more than a year, he could be dealt if the cards are played right. With 2 years, $36 million assigned for ’18 and ’19, that contract becomes more appealing to another team.
Also, Boston is a big market, and can afford to eat some of that money. So, if Boston offers 1.5 years of the Panda for roughly $25 million, it is not a leap to say that a contending team would try to get Panda for a “reclamation project.” If that doesn’t happen, it seems like Devers is blocked from getting called up.
Salem and Greenville
If you are a casual fan, you probably know about Sam Travis. You probably also know about Rafael Devers. Travis was a second-round draft pick, and Devers was a highly touted international free agent. Let me introduce you to someone who is going to shoot up the system over the next couple years.
Michael Chavis, the 11th best prospect in the system, has started the season better than almost all minor league players. MLB Pipeline made a prospect team of the week, and the member of the Salem Red Sox was named to it. Here is a quick clip explaining why, as told by Jim Callis:
In the clip, you can clearly see the raw power Chavis has. Chavis was the 1st-round selection by Boston in 2014. Chavis is a third baseman, but can play corner outfield positions as well as shortstop. He was taken out of high school, and hasn’t been this monster prospect as of yet. His best average in roughly 2+ seasons has been .237.
I think this is the year he turns the corner. Obviously transitioning from high school to professional baseball is something that is very tough. But, he was a highly sought after recruit for top collegiate programs. Chavis did commit to Clemson, but Boston was able to convince him to play professionally.
Now, you might notice a trend that Boston has a lot of good prospects who all play similar positions. Chavis, Bobby Dalbec, and Devers all are third basemen. This is not a problem at all. Having a rich prospect pool, especially at the same position, is something that could yield both current and future returns.
If Chavis and Dalbec both have great seasons, it is very likely that if Boston needs help at the MLB level, one of them could be a key trade asset. Just recently, Boston had to make the decision to trade their young OF prospect Manuel Margot to San Diego for Craig Kimbrel in the 2015 offseason. They were able to swing that trade for one reason.
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That was drafting Andrew Benintendi just 6 months earlier. Had that not happened, it is hard to believe that Margot gets traded. While Margot, JBJ, and Mookie Betts would have been a great outfield trio, Boston would still be without a dominant closer.