Red Sox players that have a chance to make history
Do any current Boston Red Sox players have a chance to break any of the key historical records out there? Let’s take a look.
We all know that this year’s Boston Red Sox aren’t expected to exactly tear the cover off of the ball. This was discussed in a previous article on this very website by Daniel Cassese here. We also know that Barry Bonds is the all-time leader for career home runs, but there are other records in the history of baseball that are out there to be broken.
Do any current Red Sox players on pace to break any of the key historical records out there? Let’s take a look.
We will examine the categories of Home Runs, Hits, and RBI’s, and strikeouts by a starting pitcher. We will look at the historical leaders in each category, notable Red Sox players that rank in the top 20 in these categories, and the current player on the team that has the highest career total, and finally who has the best chance to break the record and what they would have to do to break it.
In order for these comparisons to work, we will assume that each current player, plays to the age of 40.
Barry Bonds is the leader in the clubhouse for Home Runs with 762 career long bombs. There are some notable Red Sox players in history that are in the top 20 on the all-time list. Ted Williams finished with 521, Jimmie Foxx spent seven years with the Red Sox and smashed 534 balls over the outfield fences, and Manny Ramirez, who wore a Red Sox uniform for eight years, sent 555 round spheres into the bleachers.
The current team leader for career Home Runs is Chris Young, who is 33 years old, and has 178 home runs. With the assumption that he plays till he is 40, he would need to hit 83.5 home runs per year for the next seven years to break the record.
The Red Sox don’t really have anyone that has a realistic shot of breaking this record. Mookie Betts, 24 years old, would have to average 46.7 home runs per year over the next 16 years, and Andrew Benintendi, 22 years old, would have to average 42.2 dingers per year to break the career home run record. The younger of the two, Benintendi, would have to play till he is 45 (23 seasons) to bring the number down to a realistic 33 home runs per year.
In the category of hits, we all know that Pete Rose is the all-time hits king with 4,256. There is only one Red Sox player in the top-20 for this category, and that is Carl Yastrzemski. He ended his career with 3,419 hits and ranks eighth overall in the history of the game.
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The only other player in the top 50 that spent significant time with the Red Sox is Wade Boggs down at number 28. For as good as he was, Ted Williams isn’t even in the top 50. I would assume that would mostly be due to the years that he missed while serving in World War II.
The active leader in hits is Dustin Pedroia with 1,699. Pedey is 33 right now, so we assume he plays an additional seven years. For him to break Rose’s record, he would have to average 366 hits each year for the next seven years. He has only hit more than 200 hits in a season once. If a Red Sox players breaks this record, it won’t be Pedroia.
The player that I think has the best chance is Xander Bogaerts. The past two seasons he has racked up 196 and 192 hits. With him being 24 years old, that gives him 16 years left to play and an average of 232 hits per season to break the record.
When it comes to RBI’s, nobody drove in more runs than Hank Aaron. He ended his career with an astounding 2,297. The Red Sox have a good representation on this list with four players, which include Jimmie Foxx, Carl Yastrzemski, Ted Williams, and Manny Ramirez in the top-20. David Ortiz ranks just outside the top-20 at number 22.
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The active leader for the Red Sox in RBI is Hanley Ramirez who has knocked in 825 runners over his career. With him being 33 years old, and seven years left to play, he would have to accumulate 211 RBI each year, for seven years. His career high for RBI is 111, which he hit with the Red Sox last year. The chances of him increasing his RBI output by 100 for seven years is unlikely.
Mookie Betts, however, if a very likely candidate to come close to the record. Betts is only 24 years old, so he has 16 years left to play. With him already posting 219 career RBI, he would only need to drive in 130 RBI every year. His career high was last year when he his 113. That’s not a huge jump for a player like Betts.
Our last stat will be ruled by the great Nolan Ryan. He has more strikeouts, at 5,714, than any other pitcher that has played the game. This is another statistical category that the Red Sox have a good showing on the all-time list. With five players, that include Roger Clemens, Fergie Jenkins, Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, and Cy Young, the Red Sox make up 25% of the top-20 list.
The active leader for the Red Sox is David Price with 1,600 career strikeouts at the age of 31. This gives him nine more years to strike out 4,114 more batters, which would put him at a 458 strikeout per year average. Just to show how insane that number is, let’s look at his career numbers. Price averages 2,925 pitches thrown per year. Dividing pitches thrown by strikeouts needed, Price would have to strike out a batter with every sixth pitch thrown, for the rest of his career.
Let’s be honest and say that this is probably going to be one of those records that will never be broken. If someone from the team had to be picked, for the sake of this article, we would probably look at Chris Sale who has 1,286 strikeouts and is only 28 years old. To get the strikeout per year total down to a manageable amount, 261 per year, Sale would need to pitch an additional 17 years to break the record currently held by Nolan Ryan.
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The Red Sox have a great mix of young, talented, players and wise, crafty, veteran players. The young players have their opportunity to make their mark on, not only the history of the organization, but the history of the league. It is an exciting time to be a Red Sox fan, and we should look forward to the years to come.