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American League East: Previews and Predictions

By Daniel Cassese

Jul 20, 2013; Boston, MA, USA; A general view of the left field scoreboard showing the American League East standings prior to a game between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 20, 2013; Boston, MA, USA; A general view of the left field scoreboard showing the American League East standings prior to a game between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sep 7, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Baltimore Orioles third baseman Manny Machado (13) bats against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 7, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Baltimore Orioles third baseman Manny Machado (13) bats against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /

Baltimore Orioles

Baseball Prospectus Projection: 74-88 (5th)

FanGraphs Projection: 82-80 (4th)

Bringing back Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo on long-term deals shows me that the Orioles are banking on their power-happy lineup keeping them afloat for the time being. With Manny Machado and Adam Jones entering free agency in 2018, the Orioles’ window is slamming shut.

The O’s hit an MLB-best 253 home runs last season which vaulted them to the postseason. With a run differential of just +29, each of those home runs meant something. However, that number seems unsustainable as they relied on five players hitting 25+ homers and collecting at least 600 plate appearances to get there. That level of health and consistency is rare in this day and age.

With a rotation that was third-worst in the American League, it’s unlikely that they start winning ball games through pitching and defense either. There’s no way around saying that their pitching staff (save Zach Britton) is bad. It’s hard to see areas for major improvement in a rotation that didn’t make any major acquisitions. Getting rid of Yovani Gallardo’s unsightly 5.42 ERA helps, but likely won’t be enough to make much of a difference in a rotation highlighted by Kevin Gausman and Chris Tillman.

Then there’s the bullpen. As long as Zach Britton remains Zach Britton this aspect of their roster will be ok. Between him, Darren O’Day, Mychal Givens and Brad Bach, they have four arms capable of striking out 10+/9 innings pitched. Much like the Yankees, they have guys that are capable of giving them quality innings out of the pen on a daily basis if need be, but that’s an unsustainable formula. If Showalter is relying on his pen more than the rotation, that’s bad news for O’s fans.

Next: Heath Hembree, potential bullpen savior

For years now the Orioles have been laughing in the face of sabermetric projections that consistently rate them negatively. They’ve gotten by in the past, but they’re due for a comedown in 2017.

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