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American League East: Previews and Predictions

By Daniel Cassese

Jul 20, 2013; Boston, MA, USA; A general view of the left field scoreboard showing the American League East standings prior to a game between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 20, 2013; Boston, MA, USA; A general view of the left field scoreboard showing the American League East standings prior to a game between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sep 27, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; New York Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez (24) hits a two-run home run during the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 27, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; New York Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez (24) hits a two-run home run during the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports /

New York Yankees

Baseball Prospectus Projection: 82-80 (3rd)

FanGraphs Projection: 81-81 (5th)

The Yankees are a pretty safe bet to hover somewhere around the .500 mark this season, though it’s yet to be seen what that means for them in the standings. The Yankees, for the first time in what seems like an eternity, have been freed of most of the bad contracts that have held them in place over the last five years. For the time being, they’re caught between the old and the new.

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Their lineup will feature a balance of veterans on a downward track in their career (Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Holliday, Chris Carter, and Chase Headley) as well as young players just starting to emerge as major league stars (Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird, Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres). To Yankee fans, this is an exciting time, to me, this looks like a lineup that is due for challenges. The fact that Gary Sanchez, with just 229 career plate appearances, projects to lead the team in fWar is troubling. Can they reasonably expect to field an above-average lineup while relying on a player with such little experience? Probably not.

Then they’ll have to overcome a rotation that will struggle to provide much value beyond Masahiro Tanaka. He led the team in WAR last season and could do the same in 2017, but there’s a steep drop-off behind him. It will be up to Michael Pineda and CC Sabathia to eat innings down the rotation, with the hope that Luis Severino develops sooner than expected. There’s the possibility that he does, but for the most part, their rotation is a proven if mediocre, commodity.

All of this has ignored their greatest asset so far, their bullpen. After trading Aroldis Chapman for stud prospect Gleyber Torres, they went out in true Yankees fashion and signed him over the offseason to a record contract for a reliever. He anchors a bullpen followed by Dellin Betances, Tyler Clippard, Tommy Lane, and Adam Warren. This is a group capable of giving five quality innings a game, but unfortunately for the Yankees, they might have to regularly.

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