American League East: Previews and Predictions
The toughest division in baseball to predict doesn’t project to get much easier in 2017.
The American League East is the toughest division in baseball to predict, but not for the typical reason. Usually, analysts struggle to find a clear-cut winner prior to the start of the season. We saw it last season when projections and experts debated whether the Red Sox or Blue Jays would find themselves atop the standings come October.
A season ago, the Red Sox took home the divisional crown with a 93-69 record, good for a four-game lead over those same Blue Jays. This season, all of the analysts and number-crunchers are in consensus when they say that the Red Sox have a clear-cut advantage on paper. (For reference, Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs projections will be used to as benchmarks).
Instead, the rest of the standings present the toughest challenge. Can the Yankees youthful talent make an impact a year ahead of schedule? Can the Orioles piece together a major league caliber rotation? Will the Rays’ rotation be enough to overcome a lineup that doesn’t project to do much of anything? Will the loss of Edwin Encarnacion shut the Blue Jays’ window for good?
Problem is, no one has a reasonable answer for any of those questions. Which is what makes projections like these so much fun.
Boston Red Sox
Baseball Prospectus Projection: 87-75 (1st)
FanGraphs Projection: 91-71 (1st)
As I said earlier, the Red Sox are consensus favorites to take the AL East this year. There’s no doubt that, on paper, they have the best roster make up in the division, if not the league. There’s just too much to be excited about with their new additions and returning stars. Even without David Price, this is the type of franchise that every fan wants to see: a stable group of veterans with a mix of talented youth and exuberance and most importantly the money to fix any potential problems.
David Ortiz won’t be here to lead the team for the first time in 14 seasons but that’s ok. This is Dustin Pedroia’s team now and you’d be foolish to think that he has anything on his mind other than a third career World Series ring. The club will also get a healthy dose of leadership from veterans (Chris Sale, Hanley Ramirez) and the young guys (Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts). Guidance and determination won’t be an issue for this team.
A rotation led by Chris Sale and Rick Porcello will be effective, and one rounded out by Steven Wright and Eduardo Rodriguez will be stable enough to carry the burden until David Price is fully healthy. The same can be said for the bullpen. The addition of Tyler Thornburg gave the Sox a formidable 8-9 punch along with Craig Kimbrel, except he’s now expected to start the season on the 10-day DL. Nevertheless, they’re still relying on the closer with the most saves in baseball since 2010 and have Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes to help out in the late innings. The pitching will be alright.
Then there’s the lineup. Easily the team’s greatest asset, the Red Sox will have returning stars: Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, and Jackie Bradley; as well as breakout candidates: Andrew Benintendi and Pablo Sandoval; and the newly acquired Mitch Moreland. It hurts to see Benintendi and Sandoval included in the same sentence, but that just goes to show how good of a spring the Panda really had.
Toronto Blue Jays
Baseball Prospectus Projection: 81-81 (4th)
FanGraphs Projection: 86-76 (2nd)
This is where things start to get interesting. If you’re surprised that Baseball Prospectus is so low on them in their projections, well join the club. Their measures don’t see the Blue Jays posting the monstrous run differentials they have over the last two season, instead scoring and allowing 769 runs respectively. By comparison, both of those marks would be the highest in the division.
Numbers wise, the Blue Jays had the best rotation in the American League a season ago with a 3.64 ERA. Without one big name ace, their staff was deceptively good and has a lot of upside with young pitchers like Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez. But while there is potential upside, there are also starters that are due for regression – notably J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada. Add in the fact that they made it through the entire season without a serious injury to one of their starting five and they look even more susceptible to a setback.
More from BoSox Injection
- Conflicting report about Mookie Betts trade paints Chaim Bloom in even worse light
- Boston Red Sox setting Trevor Story up for failure amidst Xander Bogaert departure
- Red Sox missed perfect free-agent signing to torment Yankees
- Red Sox finally get validation after Andrew Benintendi-White Sox contract
- Red Sox fans’ concern about Justin Turner signing speaks volumes
There’s also a solid chance that the team’s run of offensive dominance – highlighted by their electric second half in 2015 – is coming to an end. They’re glad to have Jose Bautista back and can still lean on Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki, but they’re also dependent on repeat, if not bounce back, performances from a lot of guys that are over 30. The talent is still there to be sure, but with age comes uncertainty and the Jays have a lot of guys that they can’t be 100% certain with.
When you break it down, the variance between Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs in their Blue Jays projections starts to make much more sense.
Tampa Bay Rays
Baseball Prospectus Projection: 85-77 (4th)
FanGraphs Projection: 83-79 (3rd)
The Rays pitching staff started giving up home runs like it was 1998 last season and it cost them. However, that ignores the fact that nearly every aspect of their team was a disappointment – especially their once elite defense.
The collection of disappointment from a year ago is precisely why projections are high on them (well, as high as you can be for a team expected to finish third or fourth). They’re sure to get a bounce back from Chris Archer after he posted a career-worst 4.02 ERA in 2016. The rest of their rotation – Jake Odorizzi, Blake Snell, Alex Cobb and Matt Andriese/Jose De Leon – are similarly up to the task.
While pitching and defense win championships, teams still need to score runs. Based on their current lineup, the Rays are expecting to win a lot of one-run ball games. The lineup from 2016 remains intact, with only one new addition – Wilson Ramos. He’ll provide a massive upgrade at catcher but won’t be ready until midseason because of knee surgery. The team will once again rely on Evan Longoria to provide the bulk of their offense, which was a successful recipe years ago but hasn’t been enough to get the job done lately.
Pitching and defense could be enough for them to improve on their 68-win season from a year ago, but won’t be enough to overcome a mediocre offense. 83-85 wins look more like a best-case scenario at this point.
New York Yankees
Baseball Prospectus Projection: 82-80 (3rd)
FanGraphs Projection: 81-81 (5th)
The Yankees are a pretty safe bet to hover somewhere around the .500 mark this season, though it’s yet to be seen what that means for them in the standings. The Yankees, for the first time in what seems like an eternity, have been freed of most of the bad contracts that have held them in place over the last five years. For the time being, they’re caught between the old and the new.
More from BoSox Injection
- Conflicting report about Mookie Betts trade paints Chaim Bloom in even worse light
- Boston Red Sox setting Trevor Story up for failure amidst Xander Bogaert departure
- Red Sox missed perfect free-agent signing to torment Yankees
- Red Sox finally get validation after Andrew Benintendi-White Sox contract
- Red Sox fans’ concern about Justin Turner signing speaks volumes
Their lineup will feature a balance of veterans on a downward track in their career (Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Holliday, Chris Carter, and Chase Headley) as well as young players just starting to emerge as major league stars (Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird, Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres). To Yankee fans, this is an exciting time, to me, this looks like a lineup that is due for challenges. The fact that Gary Sanchez, with just 229 career plate appearances, projects to lead the team in fWar is troubling. Can they reasonably expect to field an above-average lineup while relying on a player with such little experience? Probably not.
Then they’ll have to overcome a rotation that will struggle to provide much value beyond Masahiro Tanaka. He led the team in WAR last season and could do the same in 2017, but there’s a steep drop-off behind him. It will be up to Michael Pineda and CC Sabathia to eat innings down the rotation, with the hope that Luis Severino develops sooner than expected. There’s the possibility that he does, but for the most part, their rotation is a proven if mediocre, commodity.
All of this has ignored their greatest asset so far, their bullpen. After trading Aroldis Chapman for stud prospect Gleyber Torres, they went out in true Yankees fashion and signed him over the offseason to a record contract for a reliever. He anchors a bullpen followed by Dellin Betances, Tyler Clippard, Tommy Lane, and Adam Warren. This is a group capable of giving five quality innings a game, but unfortunately for the Yankees, they might have to regularly.
Baltimore Orioles
Baseball Prospectus Projection: 74-88 (5th)
FanGraphs Projection: 82-80 (4th)
Bringing back Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo on long-term deals shows me that the Orioles are banking on their power-happy lineup keeping them afloat for the time being. With Manny Machado and Adam Jones entering free agency in 2018, the Orioles’ window is slamming shut.
The O’s hit an MLB-best 253 home runs last season which vaulted them to the postseason. With a run differential of just +29, each of those home runs meant something. However, that number seems unsustainable as they relied on five players hitting 25+ homers and collecting at least 600 plate appearances to get there. That level of health and consistency is rare in this day and age.
With a rotation that was third-worst in the American League, it’s unlikely that they start winning ball games through pitching and defense either. There’s no way around saying that their pitching staff (save Zach Britton) is bad. It’s hard to see areas for major improvement in a rotation that didn’t make any major acquisitions. Getting rid of Yovani Gallardo’s unsightly 5.42 ERA helps, but likely won’t be enough to make much of a difference in a rotation highlighted by Kevin Gausman and Chris Tillman.
Then there’s the bullpen. As long as Zach Britton remains Zach Britton this aspect of their roster will be ok. Between him, Darren O’Day, Mychal Givens and Brad Bach, they have four arms capable of striking out 10+/9 innings pitched. Much like the Yankees, they have guys that are capable of giving them quality innings out of the pen on a daily basis if need be, but that’s an unsustainable formula. If Showalter is relying on his pen more than the rotation, that’s bad news for O’s fans.
Next: Heath Hembree, potential bullpen savior
For years now the Orioles have been laughing in the face of sabermetric projections that consistently rate them negatively. They’ve gotten by in the past, but they’re due for a comedown in 2017.