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American League East: Previews and Predictions

By Daniel Cassese

Jul 20, 2013; Boston, MA, USA; A general view of the left field scoreboard showing the American League East standings prior to a game between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 20, 2013; Boston, MA, USA; A general view of the left field scoreboard showing the American League East standings prior to a game between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jul 20, 2013; Boston, MA, USA; A general view of the left field scoreboard showing the American League East standings prior to a game between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 20, 2013; Boston, MA, USA; A general view of the left field scoreboard showing the American League East standings prior to a game between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports /

The toughest division in baseball to predict doesn’t project to get much easier in 2017.

The American League East is the toughest division in baseball to predict, but not for the typical reason. Usually, analysts struggle to find a clear-cut winner prior to the start of the season. We saw it last season when projections and experts debated whether the Red Sox or Blue Jays would find themselves atop the standings come October.

A season ago, the Red Sox took home the divisional crown with a 93-69 record, good for a four-game lead over those same Blue Jays. This season, all of the analysts and number-crunchers are in consensus when they say that the Red Sox have a clear-cut advantage on paper. (For reference, Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs projections will be used to as benchmarks).

Instead, the rest of the standings present the toughest challenge. Can the Yankees youthful talent make an impact a year ahead of schedule? Can the Orioles piece together a major league caliber rotation? Will the Rays’ rotation be enough to overcome a lineup that doesn’t project to do much of anything? Will the loss of Edwin Encarnacion shut the Blue Jays’ window for good?

Problem is, no one has a reasonable answer for any of those questions. Which is what makes projections like these so much fun.

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