Red Sox: Bold predictions that may come true in 2017

Bold predictions about the upcoming Boston Red Sox season, along with explanations for why they may or may not come true.

It’s that time of year again where every opinionated Boston Red Sox fan comes out of the woodwork with their predictions about the upcoming season.

Often times you’ll find the same prediction in one form or another on various outlets. They tend to be rather bland and obvious. Anyone can predict that Mookie Betts will win the MVP or that Chris Sale will win the Cy Young. Each is on the shortlist of candidates for those awards and need to at least be in the conversation.

That’s not what this conversation is about. These are bold predictions. The kind of predictions that make you turn your head and say, “wait, what?!”

While these predictions aren’t necessarily going to come true, there’s a method to this madness. The idea isn’t to toss out crazy statements, such as Dustin Pedroia setting the single-season home run record. Of course that will never happen (sorry, Pedey – looking forward to another season of laser shows nonetheless). Each prediction, no matter how brazen it appears on the surface, will be accompanied by an explanation for how it can reasonably happen.

Playing my own Devil’s Advocate, I’ll also counter with why it probably won’t happen to highlight what makes the prediction so bold.

Only one Red Sox starter will top 15 wins

Boston has arguably the best rotation in baseball, anchored by a trio of aces who all won at least 17 games last season. Barring complete disaster, how can we possibly fathom two of the three tallying no more than 15 wins?

Why it could happen:

Let’s start with David Price, who won 17 games in his first season with the Red Sox last year. It took him a league leading 35 starts to do it and he’ll certainly fall short of that workload given that he’s expected to begin the season on the disabled list. If Price takes the mound for fewer than 30 starts then it’s reasonable to expect his win total to drop.

Chris Sale also won 17 games last year behind an offense vastly inferior to the one supporting him in Boston. One would expect that an increase in run production will push up his win total, which most likely is what will happen. However, we can’t overlook the history of ace pitchers that have struggled in their first season in Boston. Price is the latest example and recent history is littered with the names of pitchers who stumbled through disappointing debuts in a Red Sox uniform, from Josh Beckett to John Lackey.

Reigning Cy Young winner Rick Porcello led the majors with 22 wins last year, but don’t expect him to match that level again. He had the most run support in baseball with 6.61 runs per game. Granted he had the best offense in the majors behind him, but so did the rest of the staff. Teammate Eduardo Rodriguez received only 4.05 runs of support last season with the same offense on his side. Run support can be fickle, so even if Porcello pitches as well as he did in last year’s breakout campaign, we can’t necessarily count on him getting the benefit of Boston’s offense surging when he’s on the mound.

As for the remaining rotation candidates? At least one of them won’t spend the majority of the season as a starter and none of them have ever won 15 games before.

Why it won’t happen:

Porcello’s previous career-high was 15 wins and he should be able to top that given the improvements he showed last season and the offense he has supporting him.

Even if Sale struggles to acclimate to the pressure in Boston, he’ll still win plenty of games. Price and Beckett were both considered massive disappointments in their first seasons with the Red Sox and each still won at least 16.

For Price, it depends on how many starts he’ll get. At this point, surgery seems to have been avoided and it’s a matter of building up his arm strength. If he returns at some point in May then there is still time for him to rack up a solid win total.

We also can’t rule out the possibility that Rodriguez, Steven Wright or Drew Pomeranz will make a run at topping 15 wins. Just because they’ve never done it before doesn’t mean they don’t have the potential to do so if they can stay healthy and remain in the rotation.

Pablo Sandoval will be a top-five third baseman in the American League

Determining a hierarchy of the league’s top third baseman depends on what factors you are rating them by. For the purposes of this argument, we’ll go based on the all-encompassing WAR statistic. Sandoval has been a bust so far in Boston, producing -1.1 WAR over two seasons. Why would anyone believe he’ll be among the best at his position?

Why it could happen:

While Sandoval has been a disaster since joining the Red Sox, he produced a 3.4 WAR in 2014. Last season, only six AL players who primarily played third base topped that total, so if Sandoval can get back to the level he was at during his last season with the San Francisco Giants then he’ll be right on the verge of breaking into the top five.

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Sandoval arrived to camp looking slim and motivated. He’s done everything you could ask from him this spring to prove that he’s primed for a bounce back season, hitting .362 with a 1.090 OPS. While spring stats should be taken with a grain of salt, these results are far superior to what we’ve seen from him in camp the past two years.

If Sandoval stands a realistic shot of returning to the level he was at three years ago, now it’s just a matter of another AL third baseman falling off to make room for him in that top five. Adrian Beltre posted a stellar 6.5 WAR last year, but he’ll be 38 this season. He has to show signs of decline eventually, right? Evan Longoria is coming off a 3.9 WAR season that would be difficult for Sandoval to surpass, yet the Rays third baseman posted a 3.4 WAR or less in three of the past five seasons. An injury to any of the top players at the position could potentially take them out of the running, opening the door for Sandoval.

Why it won’t happen:

Eh, did I mention he’s been below replacement level the last two years? We should expect better this year, although breaking into the top five would be a steep challenge.

The chances of one of last year’s top five falling off are about equal to the chances of a young third baseman having a breakout season to vault into that elite tier. Houston’s Alex Bregman and Minnesota’s Miguel Sano are more realistic candidates to make the leap this season.

Hanley Ramirez will hit 40 home runs

The 30 homers that Ramirez piled up last year are the most he’s produced since 2008, when he set his career-high with 33. Reaching 40 would be far beyond anything he’s ever produced.

Why it could happen:

Ramirez will spend the bulk of his time this season as the designated hitter, a role he’s thrived in before. In a relatively small sample size of 142 career at-bats, Ramirez owns a .331/.381/.634 slash line that dwarfs his production when playing any other position.

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He has hit a home run every 14.2 at-bats as a DH, compared to his overall career rate of a homer every 23.4 at-bats. At his pace as a DH, he would need at least 568 at-bats to reach 40 homers, which is only slightly more than the total at-bats he received last year (549).

While Ramirez doesn’t have much of a track record as a 30+ home run hitter, keep in mind that most of his career was spent playing his home games in ballparks that were much more pitcher-friendly than Fenway. He showcased his home run prowess during his first month in a Red Sox uniform, blasting 10 homers in April 2015 before a shoulder injury sapped his power.

The 147 games that Ramirez played last season are the most he’s appeared in since 2012. That’s a significant factor that led to him reaching 30 home runs. Being the primary DH for the Red Sox will help keep him healthy and in the lineup often enough to make a run at a new career-high.

Why it won’t happen:

It’s never wise to expect that a 33-year old hitter will suddenly start doing things he’s never done before. Only eight major league hitters blasted 40+ homers last year, all but two of whom had at least one previous season where they surpassed Ramirez’ career-high of 33.

Ramirez has also been dealing with a sore shoulder this spring that kept him out of participating in the World Baseball Classic. The team is adamant that Ramirez’ shoulder only bothers him when he throws, not at the plate. He’s tied for the team lead with 3 home runs this spring, which seems to back up that assessment, yet the issue bears monitoring given that we’ve already seen a shoulder injury deprive him of his home run power before.

Joe Kelly will be the best reliever in the Red Sox bullpen

Remember the days when Joe Kelly was predicting that he would win the Cy Young? He’s been brutal as a starting pitcher but may have found his niche in the bullpen.

Why it could happen:

The Red Sox finally made the long overdue decision to move Kelly to the bullpen late last season, where he thrived in his new role. He owned a fantastic 1.02 ERA and struck out 21 batters over 17 2/3 innings to wrap up the season, followed by 3 2/3 shutout innings of relief in the postseason. No Red Sox pitcher who made more than seven appearances out of the bullpen last season posted a lower ERA, while only Craig Kimbrel and Koji Uehara had higher strikeout rates than Kelly’s 10.70 K/9.

In 70 1/3 career innings as a reliever, Kelly owns a 2.69 ERA and has struck out a batter per inning. We have at least a full season’s worth of data that shows Kelly is capable of being an elite reliever, a role where he can dial up the velocity on his fastball and his limited arsenal won’t be exposed.

Why it won’t happen:

Kimbrel, the fire-breathing closer making north of $13 million, should be considered the favorite to be the team’s best reliever. He’s coming off a down year by his standards, but was arguably the most dominant closer in baseball over the previous five years.

Kelly’s brilliance out of the bullpen last season came in a small sample size, so it remains to be seen if he can deliver anywhere near those results over the course of a full season. His shaky control has been an issue that has plagued him in the past. He’s found more success in that department out of the bullpen but his career 3.68 strikeout-to-walk ratio as a reliever would barely have cracked the top 100 among major league relievers last season.

Moving Kelly to the bullpen was the right move to salvage his floundering pitching career and he could dominate in his new role. However, Boston’s bullpen is loaded with power arms, so the competition for the team’s best reliever will be stiff.