Red Sox players to target, avoid in fantasy baseball drafts
Fantasy baseball is more exciting when you can draft players from your favorite team. Which Boston Red Sox players should you target and avoid?
With the 2017 season rapidly approaching, it’s time for fantasy baseball junkies to start preparing for their drafts. Boston Red Sox fans will certainly be tempted to target players from their favorite team, but knowing which ones to go after and who to avoid reaching for could make or break your draft.
Anyone planning to participate in a competitive fantasy league needs to enter their draft with a plan, which will partially be dictated on what type of league you’re in. Is it head-to-head or rotisserie? Snake or auction draft? How many teams are in the league, how many roster spots do you need to fill and what categories are used for scoring? It’s essential to know all of this before your draft because player values may vary depending on the rules of your league.
Finding value is the key to fantasy sports. Any dope can draft reigning MVP Mike Trout in the first round, but winning your league will require finding a few diamonds in the rough and avoiding early-round busts.
A Red Sox roster loaded with talent provides fans with plenty of options to draft in their fantasy league. You would be hard pressed to find many players in Boston’s starting lineup or rotation that aren’t worth drafting, but not all of them are good values based on which round you’ll have to take them or how much of your auction budget you’ll need to spend to ensure they land on your squad.
That’s why we’ll be using rankings provided by ESPN and Yahoo to determine our top targets, sleepers and busts.
Top Targets
These are elite players that will cost a lot on draft day, but should be well worth the price.
Mookie Betts, OF
ESPN Rank: 3
Yahoo Rank: 2
Fantasy owners in a snake draft will need to land a spot picking near the top of the first round in order to have a chance at Betts, while a case can be made that he should be the top overall pick. He’s a five-tool stud that produces in every fantasy category. Last season he topped the century mark in both runs scored and RBI, hit over .300, bashed 31 home runs and swiped 26 bases. The 24-year old could improve upon those lofty numbers, prompting a healthy debate between Betts and Trout for the top outfielder off the board. You can’t go wrong with either, so Red Sox fans can feel secure using an early pick or spending up for Betts.
Xander Bogaerts, SS
ESPN: 26
Yahoo: 20
The shortstop position isn’t as thin as it usually is, with the best influx of young talent that we’ve seen since the trinity of Nomar/Jeter/A-Rod in the late 90’s. However, that does’t mean you can afford to wait around to draft a shortstop, as there is a pretty clear cut top-five at the position and you’ll have to pay up to draft any of them. Bogaerts is firmly in that group as a hitter in the middle of a powerful lineup that provides ample scoring and run production opportunities. His batting average could climb back over .300 this season and his power continues to develop. Bogaerts is one of a dozen shortstops that had 20+ homers last season, but he was one of only four that did so with a batting average above .280.
Chris Sale, SP
ESPN: 19
Yahoo: 22
Personally, I typically don’t spend up for pitching due to the depth at the position. I’d rather use my first two picks or my most expensive auction bid on a five-category stud or an elite player at a scarce position, but if you are aiming to claim an ace starter then Sale is certainly worthy of being in the mix. Last season he was fifth in the majors in strikeouts and seventh in WHIP. You never want to chase wins given the fluky nature of the statistic, but one would imagine the move to Boston should help him improve upon last year’s total of 17 with a better offense supporting him. His ERA probably won’t rival the top NL pitchers, but Sale certainly won’t hurt you in that category.
Sleepers
These players should provide a solid return on investment based on where they are being drafted.
Andrew Benintendi, OF
ESPN: 119
Yahoo: 118
The 22-year old has tremendous upside, but how much of that will we see in his rookie season? We know he’s capable of delivering a solid batting average and he should score plenty of runs if the Red Sox end up batting him second in the lineup. We know his ceiling is that of a 20+ home run hitter that can steal at least that many bases, but we have no track record of him approaching anywhere near those numbers in the big leagues. An outfielder that doesn’t crack double-digits in homers or steals isn’t worth much in fantasy, giving him a relatively low floor. Top prospects tend to get over-hyped, so be cautious of reaching too much for him. If you can snag him outside of the top 100 or with a bid under $10 then his upside is worth the risk.
Hanley Ramirez, 1B
ESPN: 76
Yahoo: 60
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.331/.381/.634, 10 home runs, 37 RBI. Those are Ramirez’ numbers in 36 career games as a designated hitter, which happens to now be his primary position. He’s eagerly anticipated taking over this position since the day he signed with the Red Sox and he’s thrived in the role before. Another season with 30 homers and 100+ RBI is within reach, which only five other first baseman accomplished last year. So why is Ramirez being drafted as a borderline top-10 option at the position? That puts him on the verge of being a bench warmer unless it’s a deeper league or one that uses a corner infield position or multiple utility spots. Repeating last year’s production would make him a great value in this range.
Eduardo Rodriguez, SP
ESPN: 239
Yahoo: Not Ranked
The concern is that Rodriguez is in a three-man competition for the final two spots in the Red Sox rotation, meaning there’s a chance he’s relegated to a value-crushing middle relief role. For a guy that should be available near the end of the draft, why not take a flyer on E-Rod? His overall numbers from last year look messy due to a knee injury that delayed the start to his season and threw his mechanics out of whack, but check out what he did in the second half of the season once he got back on track – 3.24 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 over 14 starts. He’s only 23 and has the potential to put up those types of numbers over a full season if he can stay healthy.
Busts
These players seem unlikely to live up to their draft day price.
Craig Kimbrel, RP
ESPN: 121
Yahoo: 105
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The fire-breathing closer at the back end of Boston’s bullpen will be fine, so the bust label is more about my philosophy of not paying for saves. Closers really only help much in one category and there are easily over a dozen options that could net 30+ saves. A lack of innings minimizes their impact on ERA and WHIP outside of the few elite relievers, while Kimbrel may not even still be at that level of dominance in those categories. His strikeout rate remains elite, but even a mediocre starter will pile up more total strikeouts in head-to-head leagues (push Kimbrel up a bit in roto leagues with an innings cap, where K/9 matters more and loading up on relievers is a viable strategy). It’s a volatile role, so injuries and performance issues always pave the way for saves to be found on the waiver wire during the season.
Dustin Pedroia, 2B
ESPN: 90
Yahoo: 104
This is a case of name value resulting in a player being drafted well ahead of where they should be. Pedroia bounced back in 2016 following a couple of injury plagued seasons, but counting on him as your second baseman means expecting the 33 year old to stay healthy again. If he plays 150+ games again this year he’ll remain among the top second baseman in baseball, but he’s far more valuable in reality than fantasy. Expect him to hit over .300 with tons of runs scored, but not much else. You can’t count on double-digit homers and he no longer steals many bases. That leaves him as a borderline top-10 option who will likely be viewed higher based on his reputation.
Wild Cards
These players have high ceilings that could make them a draft day steal, but come with significant risk.
David Price, SP
ESPN: 118
Yahoo: 80
Red Sox fans were disappointed with the overall numbers from Price in his first season in Boston, but his heavy workload and strikeout totals still made him an elite starter in fantasy. He settled down after a brutal first six weeks to pitch like an ace the rest of the way (except in October, but that doesn’t count for fantasy!), so he’s clearly capable of returning early round value. The problem is we don’t know how healthy he is in the wake of the elbow discomfort that led to a panic inducing visit to Dr. James Andrew. Surgery has been ruled out, at least for now, but we still don’t know if he’ll be ready by Opening Day or need additional time to return to form. This makes him worth more in head-to-head leagues where you can get by without an injured player for a few weeks as long as they are back for the fantasy playoff weeks.
Sandy Leon, C
ESPN: Not Ranked
Yahoo: Not Ranked
Both of our rankings sources have Leon well outside the top-20 at his position, which means he’s not worth drafting unless you are in a super-deep league or one that requires two catchers for some reason. Which seems crazy for a player that led all major league catchers with a .310 batting average last year. His counting stats were low only because he essentially played half the season. Extrapolate his production over a full season and he’s easily in the top 10 in four categories. Leon is being ranked with the assumption that last year was a fluke, which might be true given his history as a sub-Mendoza Line hitter and his late season fade. If you miss out on the top catchers in your draft, waiting until the last round to take Leon is worth considering. If he hits anywhere near what we saw last year then he’s a steal. If he doesn’t pan out, at least he didn’t cost much. Blake Swihart would have a high ceiling if we knew he’d be getting playing time, so if he eventually takes the job for himself then you could always dump Leon and pick up his replacement.
Next: Who will be the bat off the bench?
There are plenty of options on this Red Sox roster worthy of a spot on your fantasy baseball roster, so fans should have no problem securing at least one of them. Just make sure you aim for those with value and upside rather than reaching for overpriced options that carry more risk.