Red Sox Round Table: Over/Under predictions for 2017

Rick Porcello over/under 19 wins

Sean: Under, but not because I’m expecting a down season. The Red Sox offense will still score plenty, but run support for starters can be fickle. No pitcher received more support than the 6.61 runs per start that Porcello benefited from. David Price received almost a full run less per start with the same offense supporting him. Even if Boston’s offense remains elite, can we count on them scoring most when Porcello is on the mound again?

Rick: Under for Porcello, who will not revert to 2015 form, but more in tune with 2014 with the Detroit Tigers. Even that Porcello is a good middle rotation pitcher.

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Jake: Under. Porcello enjoyed the MLB’s most run support per game in 2016 en route to his 22 wins. Not to take anything away from his Cy Young worthy season, but even with another year of a potent offense backing him up, it’s unreasonable to assume the run support will continue at that level. I think Porcello will have another solid season, but maybe not as many wins.

Jon: Porcello will be under 19 wins. I think last year was a strange amazing phenomenon. I think he’ll do great, but still end up with less than 19 wins – maybe 16 or 17. This also depends on Price’s health. I think he’ll have less pressure but people will start finding out Porcello. He’ll be good but not amazing.

David: Under. 19 wins is a steep task for anyone. Without David Ortiz and now since there are question marks surrounding David Price, I don’t think Porcello will be able to get to 19 wins, but I do think he’ll have at least 15.

Chris: Under – I’m going to be a scrooge and say he has 18 wins. Last year was obviously a career year for him, finishing with 22 wins and the Cy Young. He also led the majors in run support. I don’t think that is sustainable and I think he will fall short of 19 wins. I also don’t think that he will as lights-out as he was last year. Will he still be good? Absolutely, but I think last year may be the best version of Rick Porcello we ever see.

Drew: I think Porcello is going over on 19 wins.  He has a strong team behind him and he has all the confidence in the world at this point and certainly wants a better outcome in the end than last season.