Red Sox Round Table: Five questions to consider during spring training
The BoSox Injection staff came together to answer five pressing questions facing the Boston Red Sox entering the 2017 season.
The Boston Red Sox have arguably the American League’s best roster entering the upcoming season, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t questions facing this team.
There are quite a few unknowns that the Red Sox will need to sort out over the next six weeks of spring training down in Fort Myers. I asked our BoSox Injection staff about a few of these questions and received some compelling predictions.
Let’s start with one that has the most significant impact on getting the season started on a good note when the Red Sox host the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 3 at Fenway Park.
Which starting pitcher takes the mound for Opening Day?
Sean Penney: While David Price and Chris Sale come with stronger track records, Rick Porcello deserves the honor coming off of his Cy Young campaign. He’s also the longest tenured Red Sox pitcher of the Big Three and has the support of his fellow aces. All three will pitch in the opening series against Pittsburgh, so which order to align them in only matters once the postseason rolls around. Give the Opening Day nod to the guy that earned it last year.
Daniel Cassese: All three of the ‘aces’ are worthy of consideration. If I’m choosing one guy to take the ball, though, it has to be Porcello. Apart from the ceremony, there’s nothing that differentiates game one from game ninety-six. John Farrell will have plenty of opportunities to reshuffle his rotation after the inevitable rain-outs, spot-starts, and injuries that interrupt its regular order, so don’t worry about Sale or Price missing a start down the line.
Rick McNair: Who won the Cy Young Award in 2016? Who had an outstanding record at Fenway Park in 2016? That settles it for at least the first game, although the second game is Rick Porcello Bobblehead day.
David Spampinato: Porcello. If you won the Cy Young, you deserve the Opening Day nod.
Mike El-Far: Porcello is the most deserving candidate, coming off winning the Cy Young Award. Sale is the most talented pitcher the Red Sox have had since Pedro Martinez, and many could argue that he will be the starter on Opening Day. But the man who will toe the rubber on April 3 is none other than David Price. The Red Sox will try and boost his confidence after a disappointing 2016 campaign, and it starts in game one.
Chris Embree: Sale, and there’s no doubt in my mind. You want your best pitcher to start the most amount of games and the one way to do that is by starting them on Opening Day. I know Porcello just won the Cy Young, and Price is the highest paid pitcher, but I think Sale is definitely the best pitcher. Look at it this way, with the season on the line who do you want on the mound? If it were me, I’d take Sale every time.
Who gets left out of the rotation – Drew Pomeranz, Steven Wright or Eduardo Rodriguez?
Sean: Assuming everyone is healthy, Pomeraz will be the odd man out. Fatigue was partially to blame for his second-half fade, as he’d already surpassed his career-high innings total by the time the Red Sox traded for him. Pomeranz would be the next man up when Boston inevitably needs someone to fill in for a spot-start, but sending him to the bullpen would help keep his workload in check to improve his chances of being fresh and healthy for the stretch run.
Daniel: The back end of the rotation will probably be fluid for most of the season until someone falls out of the race completely, whether that be a result of injury of performance. All three of the candidates have health concerns, but if anyone is on the outside looking in right now, it has to be Pomeranz. Rodriguez was solid for the Red Sox after the All-Star break and appears to be injury-free as he prepares to pitch for Venezuela in the WBC. As for Wright, if it weren’t for a lingering injury that cost him his season in August, he’d already be penciled into the fourth spot in the rotation. If Pomeranz doesn’t find a way to differentiate himself from the group, he’ll be starting the season in the ‘pen for the Red Sox.
Rick: The second half of the season Rodriguez was excellent (2-4, 3.24) in 14 starts. The caution is his home performances, but compared to Pomeranz he has the edge. Wright is a given if he is healthy. E-Rod has also had knee issues, so it may all come down to who is physically ready and not physical ability. Pomeranz should sit.
David: Rodriguez, on account of last years performance and due to his injury. Even if he says he’s ready it’s better not to rush.
Mike: Had Farrell not put Wright in as a pinch-runner against the Dodgers last year, I doubt many people would be calling for Wright to be out of the rotation. While I don’t think knuckleball pitchers are very reliable, Wright should be in the 2017 rotation. If Rodriguez can stay healthy, which is a tough ask, he is a shoe-in. He was a very effective pitcher when he came up from Pawtucket last season, and shows real flashes of greatness. That leaves Drew Pomeranz out, who profiles better out of the bullpen anyway.
Chris: Pomeranz. If you leave out Wright, then that means you have four lefties in the starting rotation and I don’t think that’s a healthy way to get through the season. That means it comes down to Rodriguez and Pomeranz. I think E-Rod offers up more upside than Pomeranz. We’ve seen glimpses and flashes of brilliance from him on the mound. His only setback has been injuries. So if I’m left with a healthy Rodriguez and a healthy Pomeranz, I’m taking Rodriguez.
Who will be the primary catcher in 2017?
Sean: Sandy Leon earned the right to enter the season as the starting catcher, but if he can’t recapture the magic that made him one of last year’s biggest surprises then he won’t hang on to it for long. Blake Swihart should start the year in Pawtucket to polish up his defense behind the dish, but his bat may ultimately force the Red Sox to find a spot for him in the lineup. I say Leon splits time with Christian Vazquez for at least the first couple of months to see if either can separate themselves from the other, but Swihart ultimately takes over when his competition can’t shake out of their slumps at the plate.
Daniel: Farrell has indicated that Leon will be penciled into the starting role to begin the season, which he deserves after the numbers he put up last season. Down the line, I’m not a huge fan of Leon’s. I would love it if his 2016 season wasn’t a fluke, and he maintained that level of performance into 2017, but the underlying numbers raise a ton of red flags. He hit .218 with no home runs in his final 24 games, including a 1-for-10 performance in the postseason. Prior to the 2016 season, he owned a 33 OPS+ in 235 career plate appearances. The rough stretch that ended the year looks more likely than his invincible stretch that started it. I’m still a big believer in Vazquez’ value as a defensive catcher. I won’t excuse his offensive production because he can’t afford to be as bad as he was in 2016. But if he’s ever able to approach league average numbers among catchers (.230 average, 84 OPS+) expect him to take over the starting position by virtue of his defensive value alone. Not to ignore Swihart, but he’s the only one of the trio that still has minor league options and will probably spend a good chunk of the season catching for Pawtucket.
Rick: Leon will be number one as long as he can hit in the .240 range. His power is not great, but better than Vazquez. If Vazquez is 100 percent recovered from Tommy John surgery, you have two catchers who are above average, but if you worship pitch framing then Vazquez has that edge. If Swihart figures out his throwing he could move to number one by June if the offense needs a boost.
David: Leon was a very capable defensive catcher and his bat was huge at the bottom of the lineup so I think he’s deserving of it.
Mike: This is a two-man race between Vazquez and Leon. While Vazquez is seen as the future behind the plate, Leon was extremely productive last season. I think Leon takes the job, but if he falters early it will transition to Vazquez.
Chris: Vazquez. I know he played well last year, but I still don’t trust Leon. It probably stems from all of these years living near Boston and listening to the “what have you done for me lately” sports talk, but after the way he hit down the stretch I don’t trust or want him to be the primary catcher. Catcher is a unique position in the sense that you don’t need someone who can hit, just someone that can call a game and throw out runners. Vazquez didn’t have the same arm that he did before his surgery, but as we’ve seen with pitchers, it takes at least a full year of game action to get back to normal. I think he should be a lot better this year and hopefully he can hit just a little better.
Will Pablo Sandoval keep the starting third base job all season?
Sean: Yes, but only by default. I’m not expecting a big bounce-back season from the Panda, but he should at least be serviceable. Red Sox third basemen collectively hit .242 with a .686 OPS last season, yet the team still had the best offense in baseball despite the black hole at third. A healthy Sandoval should at least be able to do better than that.
Daniel: Unfortunately, yes. Even if Sandoval is bad, he’s likely to remain the starting third baseman for the majority of the year. As much as management likes to play up the level of competition for the job, there just isn’t enough depth at the position. If he plays like the -2.2 WAR player he’s been in his first two seasons with the Red Sox, he’s not going to be at third for long. But luckily for Sandoval, he just needs to be replacement level to maintain the job. Neither Farrell nor the front office will want to waste Holt’s versatility by tying him to third and let’s be real, Josh Rutledge is not a starting player. Rafael Devers represents a glimmer of hope in the minors, but he’s more likely to be an impact player in 2018. Third base could wind up being a serious albatross for the Sox this year.
Rick: Sandoval will stay. I worry about his defense since it was a disaster in 2015. If he returns to 2014 form on offense and defense then the Red Sox are all set. At 30 years old, I find it hard to think he is finished as a player.
David: As it looks right now, there’s no reason I would say he can’t keep the job. I’m interested to see what he can do during spring training games.
Mike: It is hard to see Pablo not keeping the third base job for the 2017 season. His only real competition was Travis Shaw, who was dealt to Milwaukee to acquire Tyler Thornburg. While the Panda should factor into playing over 130+ games at 3B, there is a longshot that he loses the job. If Devers has a phenomenal season in Portland, he might dethrone Sandoval with a September call-up.
Chris: I think he will, but I don’t think it will necessarily be because he’s playing well. If you look at the way the Red Sox lineup is constructed now, they should be getting above average to exceptional offensive production from every spot besides third base and catcher. Those are the only “weak spots” if you will. I think he literally has to hit his weight (255 lbs. as of last year) to stay in the lineup. The beauty of Brock Holt is that you can plug him into almost every position on any given day. If he becomes the starting third baseman, then his value goes way down. Also, I wouldn’t rush Devers up because you don’t need to. That leaves Marco Hernandez, Josh Rutledge, and Deven Marrero, and I’d much rather go with the established veteran in this case.
Should Mitch Moreland sit against left-handed pitchers?
Sean: His .240 career average against lefties suggests that Moreland is a prime platoon candidate. He actually found more success against southpaws last season (.277) than he did against right-handed pitchers, but it came in only 100 plate appearances. I’m basing this decision on the larger sample size. Sitting Moreland against lefties allows Hanley Ramirez to stay more engaged by having him occasionally play first base, while allowing lefty-masher Chris Young to get into the lineup as the DH.
Daniel: The answer really depends on what the Red Sox are willing to give up in terms of opportunity cost by playing Moreland against lefties. He hit them well last year (121 OPS+) but if he’s playing, Young won’t be. Young had a 135 OPS+ against left-handers last season and has the career splits to justify that spot. Expect Moreland to get a lot of action at first against righties, but get his days off when a southpaw takes the mound.
Rick: Moreland will get most of his AB’s from facing right-handed pitchers, but in late innings with a lead he has to be at first base no matter who is pitching. Ramirez is just not that good. This is an excellent glove guy – no Minky, but close.
David: I like this idea. Young is very strong against left-handed pitching and I’d like to see Hanley getting reps at first base.
Mike: Moreland will primarily be used as the first baseman when there is a right-handed pitcher on the mound, but he probably will not see the field when there is a lefty out there. He is a poor hitter vs. LHP (.240), and it is easy to slide Hanley over to first base. Either Young, Holt, or a position player who needs a day off could fill the DH role. However, if Hanley struggles, Moreland might see some playing time in order to keep consistency in the lineup.
Chris: After the way he hit left-handers last year, he should be sitting against righties. Last year he hit .277 against lefties and .221 against righties. That stat is probably an anomaly since his average is 18 points higher against righties for his career. What it will come down to is Andrew Benintendi’s ability to hit lefties. If Benintendi is hitting lefties like he did last year (.179 average with 12 strikeouts in 28 at-bats), then Young should play left field and Moreland should stay at first base. If Benintendi is able to hit lefties better, then you sit Moreland and put Young at DH with Hanley at first.
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